11-11-2020, 04:31 PM
(11-11-2020, 04:19 PM)baggy1 Wrote: That article is simply wrong SM - I've given the figures for 2017/18 above, there was a 17k increase on the 5YA.
If I extend it back to October and go as far as March the figures would be:
2017 Oct to Dec = 134,254 vs 5YA = 126,492
2018 Jan to Mar = 164,625 vs 5YA = 147,719
Totals 2017/18 = 298,879 vs 5YA = 274,211 means an excess of 24.6k
I don't know how they can get at 50k, it is literally 'fake' news (or deliberately skewed to get dramatic effect).
The only way I can make it work is by going back as far as August 2017 and taking it through to the end of April 2018
Aug - Dec 2017 217,237 vs 205,755 5YA = 11,482 excess
Jan - Apr 2018 219,402 vs 198,916 5YA = 20,486 excess
Total excess from August 17 - April 18 is 32k and that is as far as I can stretch it before it starts to reduce again.
In the article its says that it is the highest since 1975/76 so I don't think the comparison they are talking about is a previous year or a 5 year average for similar periods, I'm not sure but I think the excess they are talking about is the comparison between the deaths during the Winder Months Dec to March and the other months of the year.

