UK Covid death toll

[baggy1]

The week 44 figures for the week ended 30th October are out and this was a key week based on the trajectory pattern from the 1st wave. The good news is that the excess deaths haven't increased in the same way that they did in March / April, however the bad news is that again we have shown excess deaths for that week (1k vs the 5 year average and 723 vs 2019). Also it appears that the increase in those in hospital has slowed, it's still increasing but not as much as it has been (i'll update that later in the week).

For England and Wales the excess deaths for the year has now increased to over 63k against 2019 and over 57k against the 5YA and these are significant numbers because during the summer months they dipped slightly from a peak of 63k and 54k at the end of May / start of June slightly down to about 61k and 52k. Both of those figures are now increasing again and have passed the excess death figure peak earlier in the year. Overall for the year we are at about 113% of normal deaths and unfortunately we will pass the total number of deaths in 2019 in the next two weeks.

Very positive news on the vaccine and a light at the end of the tunnel, we just need to ensure we don't think that this os over for a few more months as we head into the flu season. Stay safe folks.