11-05-2020, 06:55 PM
(11-05-2020, 06:38 PM)strawman Wrote:(11-05-2020, 06:33 PM)baggy1 Wrote:(10-31-2020, 12:44 PM)baggy1 Wrote: Probably worth updating this with 7 day figures after todays news, leaks, denials of news, denials of leaks, and investigations into the leaks that have been denied. Anyway these are hospital beds in use for covid only for England:
16th Sept - 894
23rd Sept - 1,381 (1.54 x previous week)
30th Sept - 1,995 (1.44 x pw)
7th Oct - 2,944 (1.47 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,156 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,018 (1.44 x pw)
28th Oct - 8,535 (1.42 x pw)
That is what you call a constant trend and can be safe to place some confidence in the fact that if nothing changes the trend will continue. If it continues without any changes the figures will increase by 1.4 each week in the following pattern
4th November - 11,949
11th November - 16,728 (the peak in April was 17,172 on the 12th April which was 3 weeks after lockdown)
18th November - 23,420
25th November - 32,788 (this will be three weeks after lockdown if we act this week)
2nd December - 45,903
9th December - 64,264
Now taking the positives from what we know, there is better treatment for patients now which is reducing the related deaths of those hospitalised. The downside to that is they stay in hospital longer and continue to take up resource. There is also a lot more awareness of how this is spreading and precautions are in place by individuals - the downside to that is people are stopping from going out and spending in the economy because it appears that by doing that the virus spreads faster which leads to a slow death for business.
16th Sept - 894
23rd Sept - 1,381 (1.54 x previous week)
30th Sept - 1,995 (1.44 x pw)
7th Oct - 2,944 (1.47 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,156 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,018 (1.44 x pw)
28th Oct - 8,535 (1.42 x pw)
4th Oct - 11,047 (1.29 x pw)
Positive news in that the growth rate has reduced to 1.3 when it has been running at 1.4 for so long which if extrapolated would be
11th November - 14,361 (the peak in April was 17,172 on the 12th April which was 3 weeks after lockdown)
18th November - 18,669
25th November - 24,270 (this will be three weeks after lockdown)
2nd December - declining figures after lockdown follow a slower rate than the increase before the peak.
Effectively putting the lockdown in place this week means that, if we follow the same pattern as the 1st wave, then we will have hospitalisations higher than the April peak, but there does appear to be a better survival rate this time.
Not sure you should trust the Government slides - seems they are not averse to knowingly using out of date data
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54831334
It's dependant on whether they're using internal government data or ONS data, surely? The latter has been pretty good from what I can tell, it's the former that's dodgy as fuck. Though given the former is only accountable to the Cabinet and the latter is accountable to Parliament it makes sense.