UK Covid death toll

[baggy1]

Week 43 (week ended 23rd Oct) figures are now out. Against the 5YA for the week the figures are up by 980 (10% higher than normal) and compared with 2019 they are up 718 (7.2% higher than last year). In a small period of time where we've seen increase in hospitalisations (since mid September) we are now seeing an increase in 'normal' deaths (since mid October). Again the majority of those excess deaths are in the over 65s group. Week 42 showed an increase on the 5YA of 7%, week 43 is showing an increase of 10%, so unfortunately not only are the numbers growing (669 excess in week 42 vs 980 in week 43) the % of the deaths for those weeks compared with the 5YA are also growing.

This is running slightly below the numbers that we saw at the time of the 1st lockdown. On the 23 Oct we had 6,518 in hospital with covid, that compares directly with the 27th / 28th March and the excess deaths for that week (week 13) was 1,011 against the 5YA and 1,274 against 2019, compared with this week of 980 and 718. So 5YA figure similar and compared with 2019 just above half. 

The problem comes with week 14 which shows a big jump, if we mirror that then we will be following a similar pattern and this leads me to believe might have bee the cause for the big government decision at the weekend when as they will have seen the provisional figures for Week 44 (we will see them next week). If week 44 follows a similar course to week 14 (as week 43 is comparable to week 13) then that would spook them rightly. This is me theorising as I don't know what they show.

Keep safe folks.