(11-11-2020, 04:44 PM)baggy1 Wrote: Possibly SM - if that's the case it isn't excess deaths and that's what I think Billy is getting confused over. To get a real understanding it has to be like for like.

Absolutely no use for comparing deaths in this year with any other year or a 5 year average then

(11-11-2020, 04:57 PM)baggiebuckster Wrote: This is more likely to be related to what Billy is saying. Excess deaths earlier in the year but nothing out of the ordinary since. 

Obviously this may rise as we enter the winter months but to what extent? And for what reason?


This seems to indicate that from week 11 through to week 44 of this year there have been excess non-covid deaths at home. Would these people have died if they had gone to hospital?

(11-11-2020, 04:58 PM)strawman Wrote:

(11-11-2020, 04:44 PM)baggy1 Wrote: Possibly SM - if that's the case it isn't excess deaths and that's what I think Billy is getting confused over. To get a real understanding it has to be like for like.

Indeed - I was close

"[font="Open Sans", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Therefore, our standard method defines the winter period as December to March and compares the number of deaths that occurred in this winter period with the average number of deaths occurring in the preceding August to November and the following April to July. The calculation used is: EWD = winter deaths - average non winter deaths"[/font]

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/excesswintermortalityinenglandandwales/2017to2018provisionaland2016to2017final

Absolutely no use for comparing deaths in this year with any other year or a 5 year average then

(11-11-2020, 05:08 PM)baggy1 Wrote:

(11-11-2020, 04:57 PM)baggiebuckster Wrote: This is more likely to be related to what Billy is saying. Excess deaths earlier in the year but nothing out of the ordinary since. 

Obviously this may rise as we enter the winter months but to what extent? And for what reason?


This seems to indicate that from week 11 through to week 44 of this year there have been excess non-covid deaths at home. Would these people have died if they had gone to hospital?

That's what I covered earlier BB - and agree, and also with Billy on the fact that this year since June we have been running pretty average. There is a slight up tick at the moment (2.5k excess over the last 3 weeks) which is why we need enhanced caution now. Does that warrant a months lockdown - I'm not certain, and if we had taken the 2 week circuit break when sage said then it would possibly have reduced that number but again that's speculation.

As for it isn't real - I am certain. It is.

(11-11-2020, 05:10 PM)baggiebuckster Wrote:

(11-11-2020, 05:08 PM)baggy1 Wrote:

(11-11-2020, 04:57 PM)baggiebuckster Wrote: This is more likely to be related to what Billy is saying. Excess deaths earlier in the year but nothing out of the ordinary since. 

Obviously this may rise as we enter the winter months but to what extent? And for what reason?


This seems to indicate that from week 11 through to week 44 of this year there have been excess non-covid deaths at home. Would these people have died if they had gone to hospital?

That's what I covered earlier BB - and agree, and also with Billy on the fact that this year since June we have been running pretty average. There is a slight up tick at the moment (2.5k excess over the last 3 weeks) which is why we need enhanced caution now. Does that warrant a months lockdown - I'm not certain, and if we had taken the 2 week circuit break when sage said then it would possibly have reduced that number but again that's speculation.

As for it isn't real - I am certain. It is.

When did I say it wasn't real?

(11-11-2020, 12:31 PM)billybassett Wrote:

(11-11-2020, 12:19 PM)Derek Hardballs Wrote:

(11-11-2020, 12:02 PM)billybassett Wrote:

(11-11-2020, 11:39 AM)baggy1 Wrote: Billy - FFS have you got me on ignore? You keep saying covid isn't any worse than flu and I keep asking you when we had a worse year for Flu, if you can let me know when that was I can dig out the figures for comparison.

Give me a chance!

I’m still trying to fit the figures to what I believe rather than fact.

Wow you really are a bitter twat aren't you? Some of us are trying to keep people employed and businesses running amid this mockery as well as try to hold the govt to account on this rather than have their belly rubbed and tickled by them.

I've never once hidden my view from months ago. I've always tried to present sources and data from other websites as best I can. I always think hard before posting stuff. The post I have made was an honest post.

Like I say you're locked into a world view. By the looks of it I'm lucky enough to be a lot cleverer than you, obviously have way more self-awareness, an ability for self reflection and my first pt of call is to read about the things that most jar with my world view. I can happily say having done those things I'm happy with my view.

Your contribution to this bored generally is to sit in stalker mode waiting to be rude and fatuous and not add anything to an argument.

Call me arrogant - I don't care - but wow I'm so happy I'm me with my outlook and not you - a bitter and twisted conservative-liberal.

---

(11-11-2020, 12:31 PM)strawman Wrote:

(11-11-2020, 12:00 PM)billybassett Wrote:

(11-11-2020, 09:37 AM)baggy1 Wrote: When you say expected results, what does that mean? Are these results of tests carried out so far?

And you didn't let me know when you thought there was a worse year (or even comparable) for flu deaths. Is there a particular year that I should look at?

So for example Excess Winter Deaths via the ONS

2017-18 49,410
2014-15 43,720
2008-09 36,330
1999-00 48,420

Notably current 5y average runs at circa 36K. Also note 2019-20 flu season was estimated at 15K excess deaths below that.

Also note that via the ONS for these years it states "Respiratory diseases continued to be the leading cause of excess winter deaths".

I'll quote a few older ones:

1989-90 47,200
1975-76 58,100
1962-63 89,600
1950-51 106,400

So if we want to take the current higher number of 61,648 Deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate (as opposed to 49,770 Deaths within 28 days of positive test) then there is an increase in excess deaths equivalent to a a more virulent flu season than normal.

A few things that I've not considered yet directly but will put out there

- Period of reporting - for the purposes of 2019-20 winter excess deaths the flu season would end (as per other posts on here) this April/May. Thus should the 2019-20 winter excess deaths figure include some of those who may have died from covid Feb-Apr? May explain the 15K on average lower deaths reported for the 2019-20 season.

- Are all 61,648 deaths of Covid? Or were they tested positive for Covid (false positives aside) but died of a previous underlying condition. On this I would say every year since time immemorial people have had pneumonia put on their death certificate as cause of death but as I know personally that wasn't the killer that was because they were dying lying down in an hospital bed for weeks on end. Tbh a tragic suffering and extension to life in many cases.

- We are currently seeing there are no influenza cases and virtually no deaths from any other respiratory illnesses bar Covid. So the reckoning for excess deaths in this 2020-21 season will be interesting in light of the fact that: many vulnerable people have already succumbed; the lag on non-respiratory excess deaths that we are now seeing coming through because other health issues have been put aside because we've only been treating one illness for 8 mths; and a possible kicking the can down the line into future months because of lockdowns.

So as a conclusion from just this information would the appropriate response at the start of this month - given this data - lead you to believe that Covid is so much more lethal than any other influenza that we have to lock everyone away, kill over a longer period healthy people who are missing treatment and savage the economy, business and livelihoods.

I'm not seeing it whatsoever. It's corruption, fraud and negligence.

Nicely misses the point that even taking your point that excess deaths are  equivalent to a a more virulent flu season than normal, it hasn't been a NORMAL virulent flu year. Firstly most of the excess deaths, in this country anyway, are out of flu season and then there have not been any mass gatherings at football matches, gigs etc - people have been restricting the amount of people they visit etc in order to reduce the circumstances where people could be infected and be hospitalised and possibly die. How many more hospitalisations and deaths would there have been if we had carried on like a normal year ?

Your right with all these measures all we've done is extend the flu season for no reason other than to kill the economy and other people down the line. There are no excess deaths since June. Sweden - classic gompertz curve for respiratory epidemics, no measures like us, living through it, miniscule deaths from Covid since July.

The intimation that we've saved more people from dying by having these measures is in my opinion way wide of the mark. But of course in a year/2 years time when we have excess deaths all over the place stacking up for all other diseases (like we're already seeing) then it will get brushed under the carpet and those trotting out the line you have will pretend it never happened. Plus not to mention the other affects on people due to poverty, education loss, mental health etc.

Biggest worldwide deaths from covid won't be the million who have "died" from it it will be the 10s of millions who die from starvation and poverty around the world because of the impact on economies due to the ridiculous measures imposed on us all.

(11-11-2020, 06:22 PM)Derek Hardballs Wrote: The things you talk about protecting like people’s health, jobs etc affect me, my family, friends and colleagues just as much as yours. Just because I don’t agree with your opinions and that’s all they are, like mine, doesn’t mean I’m less intelligent or possess less foresight than you. There isn’t a binary mathematical answer to this problem. You can crunch all the numbers in any permutation but it still won’t give you a clear unambiguous answer to how to handle the situation. 

Last thing I start more threads on here than most which people have replied to and debated on. Yes I take the piss as do others out of me but the politics section is busier than it’s been in years, so I will keep on keepin’ on safe in the knowledge that whatever you, I or anyone else posts makes very little difference to anything.

(11-11-2020, 07:57 PM)JOK Wrote:

(11-11-2020, 06:22 PM)Derek Hardballs Wrote: The things you talk about protecting like people’s health, jobs etc affect me, my family, friends and colleagues just as much as yours. Just because I don’t agree with your opinions and that’s all they are, like mine, doesn’t mean I’m less intelligent or possess less foresight than you. There isn’t a binary mathematical answer to this problem. You can crunch all the numbers in any permutation but it still won’t give you a clear unambiguous answer to how to handle the situation. 

Last thing I start more threads on here than most which people have replied to and debated on. Yes I take the piss as do others out of me but the politics section is busier than it’s been in years, so I will keep on keepin’ on safe in the knowledge that whatever you, I or anyone else posts makes very little difference to anything.

 Then remember that next time before you use phrases such as these which you have used in the past:
 “cerebrally challenged working class Tories”.
“The hard of thinking”
“Brexiteers are liars”. 
“really trying not to imply anything about your gullibility”
 “Yes, but as we have seen throughout this fiasco those people are as thick as pig shit!”
All directed at people “Just because they don’t agree with your opinions”.  Glass houses, bricks and throwing and all that. 

(11-11-2020, 04:44 PM)baggy1 Wrote: Possibly SM - if that's the case it isn't excess deaths and that's what I think Billy is getting confused over. To get a real understanding it has to be like for like.