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+--- Thread: Is it ok to be racist (/showthread.php?tid=39441)
RE: Is it ok to be racist - Borin' Baggie - 11-28-2025
(11-28-2025, 12:35 PM)baggy1 Wrote:
(11-28-2025, 12:34 PM)tHEgLASSdOORS Wrote:(11-28-2025, 12:31 PM)Borin' Baggie Wrote:(11-28-2025, 12:16 PM)tHEgLASSdOORS Wrote: Nope. It just doesn’t work with the way seats break down. It’s borderline impossible for them to get over325
Can I introduce you to FPTP? We do not have ranked choice or proportional representation at general elections, they only need 1 more vote than whoever finishes second in enough seats even if 75% of the country votes against them.
I’m not sure what your point is mate. I’m saying the way their vote breaks down demographically they can’t win 326 seats. I’m not arguing anything else
Or maybe you think there are enough constituencies where that works. There ain’t.
Ironically at this point PR would give them a better shout at winning
No it wouldn't. They have crossed the point where FPTP helps rather than hinders.
RE: Is it ok to be racist - Jacko - 11-28-2025
Agree with BB. They've gone very quiet on voting reform (excuse the pun) because where previously their few million votes only converted to a handful of constituencies, 30plus percent of the vote gets them up around 310 seats. The idea that another 30% of voters will vote tactically is for the birds, it's never organised well enough.
RE: Is it ok to be racist - Borin' Baggie - 11-28-2025
(11-28-2025, 12:34 PM)tHEgLASSdOORS Wrote:(11-28-2025, 12:31 PM)Borin' Baggie Wrote:(11-28-2025, 12:16 PM)tHEgLASSdOORS Wrote: Nope. It just doesn’t work with the way seats break down. It’s borderline impossible for them to get over325
Can I introduce you to FPTP? We do not have ranked choice or proportional representation at general elections, they only need 1 more vote than whoever finishes second in enough seats even if 75% of the country votes against them.
I’m not sure what your point is mate. I’m saying the way their vote breaks down demographically they can’t win 326 seats. I’m not arguing anything else
Or maybe you think there are enough constituencies where that works. There ain’t.
They can.
They only need 1 more vote than the party with the second most votes in enough constituencies. It doesn't matter if 75% of the vote is against them and tactical voting only extends so far.
I need only point you to the results in the 18 constituencies in Northern Ireland or the 2025 local elections in England as evidence of how your complacency is not good.
RE: Is it ok to be racist - baggy1 - 11-28-2025
I pretty certain no-one is being complacent, we’ve seen how much social and traditional media play a part in the mindset of the nation. I’ve seen one daily express headline appearing on my opening screen for msn at work which uses the word eviscerated when it is just some commentary by a paid sponsor.
The reality comes from focussing the argument and highlighting the situation as best as each of us can do. Beyond that there’s little that can be done apart from wait for the population to FAFO
RE: Is it ok to be racist - Borin' Baggie - 11-28-2025
I was helping out in a by-election last week in South Warwickshire, Reform won by 3 votes on 35% of the vote. None of the Tory, Green or Labour voters wanted them but they did not vote tactically for the Lib Dems. Reform would not have won they under PR, most of the ward voted against them but they still won.
The level that they are polling at gives them a huge advantage and they only need to convince a third of people in a 3-party system to get a majority but they're polling first in a 5-party system.
It's not about winning the argument, it's about encouraging tactical voting in as many seats as possible in lieu of ranked choice or proportional representation.
RE: Is it ok to be racist - Derek Hardballs - 11-28-2025
I suspect it’ll be a hung parliament but that could well end up as a Tory and Reform pact! Then again I doubt Starmer and Reeves will be leading Labour by then so… the future is clouding… and my glass ball has fell off the table.
(11-28-2025, 12:54 PM)Borin' Baggie Wrote: I was helping out in a by-election last week in South Warwickshire, Reform won by 3 votes on 35% of the vote. None of the Tory, Green or Labour voters wanted them but they did not vote tactically for the Lib Dems. Reform would not have won they under PR, most of the ward voted against them but they still won.
The level that they are polling at gives them a huge advantage and they only need to convince a third of people in a 3-party system to get a majority but they're polling first in a 5-party system.
It's not about winning the argument, it's about encouraging tactical voting in as many seats as possible in lieu of ranked choice or proportional representation.
Exactly, I intend to vote anybody but Reform but the caveat with that is not knowing the intentions of the Tories… I tend to err on the side of them doing the wrong thing so expect some unholy pact between the two.
RE: Is it ok to be racist - baggy1 - 11-28-2025
(11-28-2025, 12:54 PM)Borin' Baggie Wrote: I was helping out in a by-election last week in South Warwickshire, Reform won by 3 votes on 35% of the vote. None of the Tory, Green or Labour voters wanted them but they did not vote tactically for the Lib Dems. Reform would not have won they under PR, most of the ward voted against them but they still won.
The level that they are polling at gives them a huge advantage and they only need to convince a third of people in a 3-party system to get a majority but they're polling first in a 5-party system.
It's not about winning the argument, it's about encouraging tactical voting in as many seats as possible in lieu of ranked choice or proportional representation.
I’m not clear on what you are saying BB, who would have won in that by-election if PR was in place?
RE: Is it ok to be racist - tHEgLASSdOORS - 11-28-2025
(11-28-2025, 12:43 PM)Borin' Baggie Wrote:Time will tell but I don’t think you’re right in anything but hypotheticals, not how the reality will pan out.(11-28-2025, 12:34 PM)tHEgLASSdOORS Wrote:(11-28-2025, 12:31 PM)Borin' Baggie Wrote:(11-28-2025, 12:16 PM)tHEgLASSdOORS Wrote: Nope. It just doesn’t work with the way seats break down. It’s borderline impossible for them to get over325
Can I introduce you to FPTP? We do not have ranked choice or proportional representation at general elections, they only need 1 more vote than whoever finishes second in enough seats even if 75% of the country votes against them.
I’m not sure what your point is mate. I’m saying the way their vote breaks down demographically they can’t win 326 seats. I’m not arguing anything else
Or maybe you think there are enough constituencies where that works. There ain’t.
They can.
They only need 1 more vote than the party with the second most votes in enough constituencies. It doesn't matter if 75% of the vote is against them and tactical voting only extends so far.
I need only point you to the results in the 18 constituencies in Northern Ireland or the 2025 local elections in England as evidence of how your complacency is not good.
It’s not complacency for me, I won’t be here when it happens and a small part of me would like to see the perennial chancer have to walk the walk.
And FWIW I think they’ll max out at about 270
RE: Is it ok to be racist - Borin' Baggie - 11-28-2025
(11-28-2025, 01:08 PM)baggy1 Wrote:(11-28-2025, 12:54 PM)Borin' Baggie Wrote: I was helping out in a by-election last week in South Warwickshire, Reform won by 3 votes on 35% of the vote. None of the Tory, Green or Labour voters wanted them but they did not vote tactically for the Lib Dems. Reform would not have won they under PR, most of the ward voted against them but they still won.
The level that they are polling at gives them a huge advantage and they only need to convince a third of people in a 3-party system to get a majority but they're polling first in a 5-party system.
It's not about winning the argument, it's about encouraging tactical voting in as many seats as possible in lieu of ranked choice or proportional representation.
I’m not clear on what you are saying BB, who would have won in that by-election if PR was in place?
The Lib Dem candidate most likely if our by-elections are like what happens in Scottish by-elections
RE: Is it ok to be racist - baggy1 - 11-28-2025
How does that work - genuine question, just a bit ignorant on the ways here