Can interest rises work?

[Protheroe]

current consensus

I don't agree with the current consensus. It appears to give us crisis after crisis.

I'm not arguing for a return to the gold standard, just for sanity to return  in some measure for the sheer amount of debt we've created. Particularly when the whole world is faced with the problems it is faced with; China getting old before it gets rich, endless stagnation in Europe and Japan, Climate Change costs / mitigation etc.

Where will the growth come from to service this debt? That is all I wonder.

[Protheroe]

Back to the OP.

If the PMI / Retail Sales data out his week is anything to go by then I think yes, interest rate rises are working.

[Kit Kat Chunky]

Back to the OP.

If the PMI / Retail Sales data out his week is anything to go by then I think yes, interest rate rises are working.

Does that mean we need to go higher though, or will previous rate increases work their way through?

The independent Bank of England will work that one out, with their independent Governor, who is of course, appointed by the Chancellor of the Exchequer. 

Is there an election any time soon?

[Borin' Baggie]

Back to the OP.

If the PMI / Retail Sales data out his week is anything to go by then I think yes, interest rate rises are working.

Does that mean we need to go higher though, or will previous rate increases work their way through?

The independent Bank of England will work that one out, with their independent Governor, who is of course, appointed by the Chancellor of the Exchequer. 

Is there an election any time soon?

Two of the three Sunak MPC appointees consistently opposed any and all interest rate rises so it's a good job that the BoE is independent from the government.

I'd say that interest rates are close to topping out though, and any further rises will be modest and slowed. The Fed have probably topped out which will put less pressure on the BoE to follow them.

[Protheroe]

Back to the OP.

If the PMI / Retail Sales data out his week is anything to go by then I think yes, interest rate rises are working.

Does that mean we need to go higher though, or will previous rate increases work their way through?

The independent Bank of England will work that one out, with their independent Governor, who is of course, appointed by the Chancellor of the Exchequer. 

Is there an election any time soon?

I suspect the MPC has at least one more 0.25% rise in them, and I wouldn't rule out another as the £ weakens which is a essentially a proxy for further inflation - and the reason why I've been filling up my dollar account for next years road trip.

If I reckon right we'll be either in recession or very close to it by the end of Q1 / beginning of Q2 next year - so the timing for an election is disastrous.

[Malcolm Tucker]

Back to the OP.

If the PMI / Retail Sales data out his week is anything to go by then I think yes, interest rate rises are working.

Does that mean we need to go higher though, or will previous rate increases work their way through?

The independent Bank of England will work that one out, with their independent Governor, who is of course, appointed by the Chancellor of the Exchequer. 

Is there an election any time soon?

I suspect the MPC has at least one more 0.25% rise in them, and I wouldn't rule out another as the £ weakens which is a essentially a proxy for further inflation - and the reason why I've been filling up my dollar account for next years road trip.

If I reckon right we'll be either in recession or very close to it by the end of Q1 / beginning of Q2 next year - so the timing for an election is disastrous.

The dollar forecasts I’ve seen have it going as high as 1.40ish by this time next year, so I’m not sure that’s quite the genius move you’re making out…

[Protheroe]

Forecasts invariably turn out to be wrong. In any event it’s in $ money market account so if the rate does rise to 1.40 the returns over a year won’t be mile off that anyway.

1.40 would mean the £ rising back to highest level it’s seen in the last 5 years. With the inherent weakness of the UK economy I’d be mildly surprised if that happened.

[Malcolm Tucker]

Forecasts invariably turn out to be wrong. In any event it’s in $ money market account so if the rate does rise to 1.40 the returns over a year won’t be mile off that anyway.

1.40 would mean the £ rising back to highest level it’s seen in the last 5 years. With the inherent weakness of the UK economy I’d be mildly surprised if that happened.

Yes, it looks a bit odd to me too. The forecasts have a not insignificant drop between now and the end of September too. 

My best guess would be that it’s pricing in the Fed being quicker than the BoE to lower interest rates over the next 12 months.

[Protheroe]

If you look at Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole he isn’t convinced the Fed’s tightening is over.