XG

[Shabby Russian]

I know it's a much derided stat, but we overall have the best xg in the championship.

Second to Fulham on xg scored and top on xg conceded.

Overall 1.93 xg for goals scored and 0
76 for goals conceded.

Ignore the sloppy defending in our first 2 games, particularly Luton, then we are out performing our defensive xg.

Take out the goals from set plays against Luton and Sheff U, where the defending was embarrassingly abject, then we are under performing on our offensive xg.

Of all the football stats, I like xg best, because used properly it can highlight both strengths and weaknesses.

For example if you are conceding significantly more than your xg, you might want to have a close examination of your goalkeeper.

[Lurker#3]

I wasnt aware of that "ELF analysis " website. Really interesting reads, I just hope their stats are kosher as it will be my new go to.

Interesting to see that we play the least accurate passes into the final third but the most key passes. It also shows that we have played the 5th lowest amount of "through passes", which is most likely to be because defences are so deep against us. This is an area we need to improve though, getting teams to lose their shape, and get back to us having runners breaking lines and especially from deep.

[Derek Hardballs]

I know it's a much derided stat, but we overall have the best xg in the championship.

Second to Fulham on xg scored and top on xg conceded.

Overall 1.93 xg for goals scored and 0
76 for goals conceded.

Ignore the sloppy defending in our first 2 games, particularly Luton, then we are out performing our defensive xg.

Take out the goals from set plays against Luton and Sheff U, where the defending was embarrassingly abject, then we are under performing on our offensive xg.

Of all the football stats, I like xg best, because used properly it can highlight both strengths and weaknesses.

For example if you are conceding significantly more than your xg, you might want to have a close examination of your goalkeeper.

Or just watch the fucking games… worra load of shite! Ffs we need ludicrous system to point out we haven’t scored as many goals as we should given the chances we have created! I like the bits where you say we have to ignore certain stats because they are inconvenient. 

Any manager or coaching / scouting team will be able to see where a teams strengths and weaknesses are without the aid of this nonsense.

---

I wasnt aware of that "ELF analysis " website. Really interesting reads, I just hope their stats are kosher as it will be my new go to.

Interesting to see that we play the least accurate passes into the final third but the most key passes. It also shows that we have played the 5th lowest amount of "through passes", which is most likely to be because defences are so deep against us. This is an area we need to improve though, getting teams to lose their shape, and get back to us having runners breaking lines and especially from deep.

We don’t play through passes because we don’t play it on the ground enough in midfield to do so. We are constantly turning the ball forward at break neck speed and with little accuracy. It doesn’t make for cultured through balls to feet or to run onto. This is where stats become redundant and what you witness in front of you is more useful.

[Cuzer]

Amazing how many goals we could have scored if we would have invested properly in a quality striker rather than picking up a journeyman striker on loan who struggles for games and goals at this level

As I say a lot of the recent ire is at the club, Ken and the lack of investment, not Val

Cuzer

[Lurker#3]

I know it's a much derided stat, but we overall have the best xg in the championship.

Second to Fulham on xg scored and top on xg conceded.

Overall 1.93 xg for goals scored and 0
76 for goals conceded.

Ignore the sloppy defending in our first 2 games, particularly Luton, then we are out performing our defensive xg.

Take out the goals from set plays against Luton and Sheff U, where the defending was embarrassingly abject, then we are under performing on our offensive xg.

Of all the football stats, I like xg best, because used properly it can highlight both strengths and weaknesses.

For example if you are conceding significantly more than your xg, you might want to have a close examination of your goalkeeper.

Or just watch the fucking games… worra load of shite! Ffs we need ludicrous system to point out we haven’t scored as many goals as we should given the chances we have created! I like the bits where you say we have to ignore certain stats because they are inconvenient. 

Any manager or coaching / scouting team will be able to see where a teams strengths and weaknesses are without the aid of this nonsense.

---

I wasnt aware of that "ELF analysis " website. Really interesting reads, I just hope their stats are kosher as it will be my new go to.

Interesting to see that we play the least accurate passes into the final third but the most key passes. It also shows that we have played the 5th lowest amount of "through passes", which is most likely to be because defences are so deep against us. This is an area we need to improve though, getting teams to lose their shape, and get back to us having runners breaking lines and especially from deep.

We don’t play through passes because we don’t play it on the ground enough in midfield to do so. We are constantly turning the ball forward at break neck speed and with little accuracy. It doesn’t make for cultured through balls to feet or to run onto. This is where stats become redundant and what you witness in front of you is more useful.

It all depends on how your brain works Derek. I spent 3 years studying sports science, a further year studying sports psychology and 4 years post grad doing health and sports performance work. So I always like to base my opinions around data and use my qualitative opinions to challenge it where necessary. 

But I have seen nothing with my eyes that challenges the stats.

---

Amazing how many goals we could have scored if we would have invested properly in a quality striker rather than picking up a journeyman striker on loan who struggles for games and goals at this level

As I say a lot of the recent ire is at the club, Ken and the lack of investment, not Val

Cuzer

The only argument I have against this is there hasn't been one person guilty of missing lots of chances. The poor finishing has been spread around which points towards another issue. My thought on this is that as we are having to attack from so deep recently with team going long, high and over us, we are fatigued when we get the chances. 

I wouldn't mind a Gayle still however.

[SW4Baggie]

I know it's a much derided stat, but we overall have the best xg in the championship.

Second to Fulham on xg scored and top on xg conceded.

Overall 1.93 xg for goals scored and 0
76 for goals conceded.

Ignore the sloppy defending in our first 2 games, particularly Luton, then we are out performing our defensive xg.

Take out the goals from set plays against Luton and Sheff U, where the defending was embarrassingly abject, then we are under performing on our offensive xg.

Of all the football stats, I like xg best, because used properly it can highlight both strengths and weaknesses.

For example if you are conceding significantly more than your xg, you might want to have a close examination of your goalkeeper.

Or just watch the fucking games… worra load of shite! Ffs we need ludicrous system to point out we haven’t scored as many goals as we should given the chances we have created! I like the bits where you say we have to ignore certain stats because they are inconvenient. 

Any manager or coaching / scouting team will be able to see where a teams strengths and weaknesses are without the aid of this nonsense.

---

I wasnt aware of that "ELF analysis " website. Really interesting reads, I just hope their stats are kosher as it will be my new go to.

Interesting to see that we play the least accurate passes into the final third but the most key passes. It also shows that we have played the 5th lowest amount of "through passes", which is most likely to be because defences are so deep against us. This is an area we need to improve though, getting teams to lose their shape, and get back to us having runners breaking lines and especially from deep.

We don’t play through passes because we don’t play it on the ground enough in midfield to do so. We are constantly turning the ball forward at break neck speed and with little accuracy. It doesn’t make for cultured through balls to feet or to run onto. This is where stats become redundant and what you witness in front of you is more useful.

It all depends on how your brain works Derek. I spent 3 years studying sports science, a further year studying sports psychology and 4 years post grad doing health and sports performance work. So I always like to base my opinions around data and use my qualitative opinions to challenge it where necessary. 

But I have seen nothing with my eyes that challenges the stats.

Indeed - as someone who works in data and analytics as well, I really like measures like xG and xA - as long as they're viewed in the right context.

Despite some of the recent results, the performance stats across majority of our games have been positive, and we ought to have a few additional points on the board but as your numbers suggest we just aren't converting a high enough proportion of our quality chances which points to a lack ability up top. More concerning is that IF the xG/xA are being calculated relative to the rest of the Championship we ought to be out performing them all based on resources available, which is doubly damning on our forwards.

Defensively we are solid... but our attack just isn't delivering... 

PNE - xG 1.67
Derby xG 2.87

We should have won both of those games, but we were let down by our forwards. We've only been ahead of our xG in one game this season, against SU, and that was due to the goals from long throws...  For a side pushing for promotion, with the resources we have available we ought to be converting goals at the very least to match our stats, but we felt Hugill, Robinson and Grant would be enough...

[GunsOfNavarone]

It's a great pity so many of our chances this season have fallen to Darnell Furlong. Can't remember which stat site it was from but I read he'd had 16 attempts on goal with 13 of them sailing past the target. I think he had one on target with two attempts blocked, though this may have been the other way around.

[Lurker#3]

Indeed - as someone who works in data and analytics as well, I really like measures like xG and xA - as long as they're viewed in the right context.

Despite some of the recent results, the performance stats across majority of our games have been positive, and we ought to have a few additional points on the board but as your numbers suggest we just aren't converting a high enough proportion of our quality chances which points to a lack ability up top. More concerning is that IF the xG/xA are being calculated relative to the rest of the Championship we ought to be out performing them all based on resources available, which is doubly damning on our forwards.

Defensively we are solid... but our attack just isn't delivering... 

PNE - xG 1.67
Derby xG 2.87

We should have won both of those games, but we were let down by our forwards. We've only been ahead of our xG in one game this season, against SU, and that was due to the goals from long throws...  For a side pushing for promotion, with the resources we have available we ought to be converting goals at the very least to match our stats, but we felt Hugill, Robinson and Grant would be enough...

As mentioned above in reply to Cuz, our chances have been spread around, including centre backs and Furlong. 

I think we need to find away of keeping our "forwards" closer to the goal so they get the chances to shoot without having to sprint 25/30m first, or we need to find a solution to team negating our press so pure pressure starts to tell as it was in teh first 4 games.

---

It's a great pity so many of our chances this season have fallen to Darnell Furlong. Can't remember which stat site it was from but I read he'd had 16 attempts on goal with 13 of them sailing past the target. I think he had one on target with two attempts blocked, though this may have been the other way around.

If this is the case it may be worth trying MP at RWB. With Darnel in the back 3 as has been muted on here in recent times.

[SW4Baggie]

Indeed - as someone who works in data and analytics as well, I really like measures like xG and xA - as long as they're viewed in the right context.

Despite some of the recent results, the performance stats across majority of our games have been positive, and we ought to have a few additional points on the board but as your numbers suggest we just aren't converting a high enough proportion of our quality chances which points to a lack ability up top. More concerning is that IF the xG/xA are being calculated relative to the rest of the Championship we ought to be out performing them all based on resources available, which is doubly damning on our forwards.

Defensively we are solid... but our attack just isn't delivering... 

PNE - xG 1.67
Derby xG 2.87

We should have won both of those games, but we were let down by our forwards. We've only been ahead of our xG in one game this season, against SU, and that was due to the goals from long throws...  For a side pushing for promotion, with the resources we have available we ought to be converting goals at the very least to match our stats, but we felt Hugill, Robinson and Grant would be enough...

As mentioned above in reply to Cuz, our chances have been spread around, including centre backs and Furlong. 

I think we need to find away of keeping our "forwards" closer to the goal so they get the chances to shoot without having to sprint 25/30m first, or we need to find a solution to team negating our press so pure pressure starts to tell as it was in teh first 4 games.

---

It's a great pity so many of our chances this season have fallen to Darnell Furlong. Can't remember which stat site it was from but I read he'd had 16 attempts on goal with 13 of them sailing past the target. I think he had one on target with two attempts blocked, though this may have been the other way around.

If this is the case it may be worth trying MP at RWB. With Darnel in the back 3 as has been muted on here in recent times.

Completely agree with this... and I've definitely agreed with Phillips being a better option at RWB.
The difference between us and Barnsley is that we can afford to commit more players forward than they could - we're actually playing a very defensive line-up in terms of goal contribution, and we really need to get more players into attacking positions, and players with more composure in front of goal in the final third.
Furlong has done brilliantly this season, but it's not unfair to say he really ought to have hit the back of the net 2-3x this season.

[Pragmatist]

Create the most chances but can't put them away. Need an out and out goal scorer, someone like a Charlie Austin....