I should have listened to Strawman - the figures that came up in the slides last night for hospitalisations were simply wrong and overstated. Looking at the update that came on late last night of hospitalisations they show the number was about 700 less than the slide showed. So I have updated the figures in my post above and it gives us a much rosier picture.
The figures show that the number of those in hospital appear to have stalled in England for 3 days, it is important to note that this is a net figure (i.e. those in hospital on day 1 plus those arriving on day 2 less those leaving on day 2) and that number has held at around 10.4k for 3 days now. We do have figures for those arriving in hospital which is relatively high (around 1.2k) but we don't know how they are leaving (either recovered or died). Using the death data (which I have tried to avoid because it's potentially subjective and gets updated weeks after in some cases) the figures are around 250 a day which means that around 1k people are leaving hospital as recovered each day - this appears to be good news.
Also with the reduced growth rate the prediction for numbers in hospital is also reduced and, using the increase rate as 1.2 now (this isn't what would normally be used because it isn't a trend, it's just one week) means that the peak of those in hospital will be roughly the same as in April.
I've updated my post above and for comparison of what it was Strawman has quoted the original post. Positive news.
The figures show that the number of those in hospital appear to have stalled in England for 3 days, it is important to note that this is a net figure (i.e. those in hospital on day 1 plus those arriving on day 2 less those leaving on day 2) and that number has held at around 10.4k for 3 days now. We do have figures for those arriving in hospital which is relatively high (around 1.2k) but we don't know how they are leaving (either recovered or died). Using the death data (which I have tried to avoid because it's potentially subjective and gets updated weeks after in some cases) the figures are around 250 a day which means that around 1k people are leaving hospital as recovered each day - this appears to be good news.
Also with the reduced growth rate the prediction for numbers in hospital is also reduced and, using the increase rate as 1.2 now (this isn't what would normally be used because it isn't a trend, it's just one week) means that the peak of those in hospital will be roughly the same as in April.
I've updated my post above and for comparison of what it was Strawman has quoted the original post. Positive news.