UK Covid death toll

[backsidebaggie]

Whitty is right.

Not doom mongering at all. He's reporting on the basis of opening up. Anyone thinking that June the 21st is open day is deluded.

We'll be in another lockdown within a year, I'll have a tenner with anyone.

Make it a 100 and you're on.

He wasn't suggesting a lockdown would be needed. That's where the misreporting is happening. He is suggesting that we will get a surge of infections but we should be in a better position to handle it with vaccines in place for hospitalisations to be less of an issue. Covid isn't going away.

Vaccines aren't perfect. And they're only resistant to know strains. Plus we're all basing our freedom on near perfect uptakes which we won't get. How about immunity and how long it lasts? No one knows for sure.

I think we'll have a similar summer this year to last year and when it gets colder again Covid, being a respiratory condition that will thrive will put us into another lockdown. I don't think it will be of the magnitude of this one but it'll still be another lockdown. It may not even be national but Sandwell will be locked down again before March 2022. Guaranteed.

Beep beep beep

Not at all.

If you're in Sandwell you'll be in a lockdown within the next twelve months.

My guess is back in lockdown before Xmas. And I think we’ll be out at least a month later than the planned June date in the first place. I think we’ll get a few months respite in the summer similar to last year, just a touch later. And then after next winters lockdown, the financial and economic shit will really hit the fan, like never in our lifetimes.

That’s my cheap nasty lazy negative prediction, based mainly on gut feeling (and extraordinary amounts of money printing).

I await stick for being a prophet of doom! 

[baggy1]

I can understand the 'doom and gloom' around potential lockdowns in the next 12 months and beyond and there may be periods, especially when we get into the winter months, where there are local restrictions but I don't believe we will get to the national lockdown situation that we have had recently. The reason for that is the stats around deaths, the treatment improvements and the vaccine. In the 1st wave we had a high ratio of deaths to hospitalisations, the peak number in hospital last April was around 19k and the worst week for excess deaths was around 12k which occurred on a couple of weeks, whereas in the 2nd wave (I'm only counting 2 waves with the 2nd one starting in September which we are still in) had peak hospitalisation figures of about 34k in January but the worst week for excess deaths was only around 5.5k. These are very rough comparisons but it does show that excess death to hospitalisation in the 1st wave was around 65% whereas in the second it was less than 20% (no real science was used in getting to my conclusion   )

This tells me that in a short time we have learned how to treat this better resulting in less lives lost, the next stage is to get the hospitalisations down which is where the vaccine comes in. Early indications are that the vaccine is proving to be effective is creating antibodies and reducing spread which in itself indicates that less people will need to go to hospital. If we can keep the hospital numbers down that will itself have a double win - studies show that 20% of infections came from within hospital therefore less chance of the numbers rising from within, and the NHS can cope with the reduced numbers without having to take other measure to stop spread (we will have cases to deal with, this isn't going away). 

The important part of the next few months is to get as many people vaccinated as possible, it really is simple the choice is get vaccinated or face more lockdowns. We also have to be patient in getting to our freedoms, release too early before the vast majority of the population has been vaccinated and spread will occur. My concerns are around unvaccinated people travelling to countries with less vaccination in general and bringing back the virus (and potential new variants) reintroducing it to the community, this is where the government has to act to make sure that we protect the nation from another shitshow.

[backsidebaggie]

I can understand the 'doom and gloom' around potential lockdowns in the next 12 months and beyond and there may be periods, especially when we get into the winter months, where there are local restrictions but I don't believe we will get to the national lockdown situation that we have had recently. The reason for that is the stats around deaths, the treatment improvements and the vaccine. In the 1st wave we had a high ratio of deaths to hospitalisations, the peak number in hospital last April was around 19k and the worst week for excess deaths was around 12k which occurred on a couple of weeks, whereas in the 2nd wave (I'm only counting 2 waves with the 2nd one starting in September which we are still in) had peak hospitalisation figures of about 34k in January but the worst week for excess deaths was only around 5.5k. These are very rough comparisons but it does show that excess death to hospitalisation in the 1st wave was around 65% whereas in the second it was less than 20% (no real science was used in getting to my conclusion   )

This tells me that in a short time we have learned how to treat this better resulting in less lives lost, the next stage is to get the hospitalisations down which is where the vaccine comes in. Early indications are that the vaccine is proving to be effective is creating antibodies and reducing spread which in itself indicates that less people will need to go to hospital. If we can keep the hospital numbers down that will itself have a double win - studies show that 20% of infections came from within hospital therefore less chance of the numbers rising from within, and the NHS can cope with the reduced numbers without having to take other measure to stop spread (we will have cases to deal with, this isn't going away). 

The important part of the next few months is to get as many people vaccinated as possible, it really is simple the choice is get vaccinated or face more lockdowns. We also have to be patient in getting to our freedoms, release too early before the vast majority of the population has been vaccinated and spread will occur. My concerns are around unvaccinated people travelling to countries with less vaccination in general and bringing back the virus (and potential new variants) reintroducing it to the community, this is where the government has to act to make sure that we protect the nation from another shitshow.

Great statting again Baggy1. A couple of queries though....

When such a large percentage of hospitalisations are for the over 50s, should it really matter if a lot of youngsters choose not to have the vaccine? (which I think will happen). The vaccination rates in the older generations are very high. I got my stat from here on hospitalisations by age, you're probably aware of this though.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/dv...nload.xlsx

And vaccinated people can still get covid and bring back variants anyway, and pass them on to people (especially if they're travelling abroad in the hundreds of thousands, the vaccine isn't 100% effective so there will still be some transmission even amongst the vaccinated). The Greek tourism minister has, I believe, confirmed a vaccine or a negative test will be fine to travel there.

[baggy1]

Great statting again Baggy1. A couple of queries though....

When such a large percentage of hospitalisations are for the over 50s, should it really matter if a lot of youngsters choose not to have the vaccine? (which I think will happen). The vaccination rates in the older generations are very high. I got my stat from here on hospitalisations by age, you're probably aware of this though.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/dv...nload.xlsx

And vaccinated people can still get covid and bring back variants anyway, and pass them on to people (especially if they're travelling abroad in the hundreds of thousands, the vaccine isn't 100% effective so there will still be some transmission even amongst the vaccinated). The Greek tourism minister has, I believe, confirmed a vaccine or a negative test will be fine to travel there.

I think it does matter for two reasons, one of the benefits of vaccination will be in the reduced transmission so if half the population doesn't get vaccinated then we only reduce transmission by half, i don't think that will be enough. And under 50s have been protected to a degree by the lockdown as well so if we just open up then there will be a fair number of under 50s requiring hospital treatment potentially, which again puts strain on the system. The figures you link (thanks btw) are in a period where we are locked down and still has 3.3k in hospital from the under 45s (under 45s in the UK is roughly 37.4M, divide that by 100k and times by 9), if we increase transmission by opening up that number will go up I would imagine.

And agreed, which is why I am concerned about allowing international travel this year until the rest of the world has caught up with us to a greater degree.

[backsidebaggie]

That pattern of the under 50s hospitalised runs pretty much throughout the whole thing for 12 months I believe though. Its very small as a percentage.

And I still think if significant numbers of younger folks choose not to have the vaccine, that still won't equate to half the population, nowhere near (as take up is very high in over 60s). I still reckon vaccination will be around 70-75% overall (that's my gut feeling - maybe half of the youngest age group have it? It'll get less as we go down each age group IMO). I really can't see, given the small percentage of under 50s which end up in hospital, that it should put a strain on the system if a reasonable proportion of healthy youngsters don't have the vaccine, as they are such low risk at becoming seriously ill, unless I'm missing something. Under 50s make up 1% of deaths I think (and most of those are vulnerable, who will be vaccinated). Please correct me if I'm wrong!

The international travel thing is an issue, but I can't see any way around it other than a good testing procedure. There'll be no holiday companies left if we have another year off, that's the thing. Countries relying on tourism are desperate.

If you're right about the strain on the NHS - you may well be, I'm just using gut feeling and fag packet calculations (and not even good ones!), this reiterates to me that we are fucked though. Because significant percentages of the younger generations are going to decline the vaccine IMO. Although I still think the total vaccinated, across all ages, will be much more than 50%.

[baggy1]

All true bb, and I had taken zero under 45s for my calculation which is obviously wrong. I would still like to see as many as possible have the jab but you are right there will be a % of under 50s that don't want it for one reason or another.

As for travel companies, again I agree but I can see issues with travel this year with transmission and insurance for anyone that gets sick whilst abroad if they haven't checked their cover. Overall though I do think we are heading in the right direction.

[Protheroe]

Because significant percentages of the younger generations are going to decline the vaccine IMO.

I don't agree with that at all. If the price of going to Ibiza is a vaccine they'll be queuing round the block.

[backsidebaggie]

Because significant percentages of the younger generations are going to decline the vaccine IMO.

I don't agree with that at all. If the price of going to Ibiza is a vaccine they'll be queuing round the block.

It won’t be IMO. Greece already said you can have a test or vaccine to go on holiday. Many more countries will follow IMO. They are on their knees and need all tourists. I believe a hell of a lot of under 30s, especially women, will decline it. Time will tell anyway.

[baggy1]

16th Sept - 929
23rd Sept - 1,439 (1.55 x previous week)
30th Sept - 2,036 (1.41 x pw)
7th Oct - 3,066 (1.51 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,313 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,271 (1.45 x pw)
28th Oct - 9,070 (1.45 x pw)
4th Nov - 11,037 (1.22 x pw)
11th Nov - 12,730 (1.15 x pw)
18th Nov - 14,490 (1.14 x pw)
25th Nov - 14,240 (0.98 x pw)
2nd Dec - 13,212 (0.93 x pw)
9th Dec -  13,467 (1.02 x pw)
16th Dec - 15,465 (1.15 x pw)
23rd Dec - 17,834 (1.15 x pw)
30th Dec - 22,713 (1.27 x pw)
6th Jan - 27,727 (1.22 x pw)
13th Jan - 32,689 (1.18 x pw)
20th Jan - 33,886 (1.04 x pw)
27th Jan - 30,846 (0.91 x pw)
3rd Feb - 26,374 (0.86 x pw)
10th Feb - 20,926 (0.79 x pw)
17th Feb - 16,458 (0.79 x pw)
24th Feb - 13,007 (0.79 x pw)
3rd Mar - 9,594 (0.74 x pw)
10th Mar - 6,945 (0.73 x pw)

Some more good news on the hospitalisation figures from yesterday, a drop of 25% from the previous weeks figures which is a faster rate than it has been in any point of this wave. Also down below 10k in England for the 1st time since 1st November.

Also 20.7M now have had the 1st dose of the vaccine administered and just short of 900k having had the 2nd dose.

With the better weather and the relaxation coming next week we need to keep an eye on the figures but positive news so far.

And following on from last weeks 25% drop in the hospital numbers we have repeated that number again this week which means we have less than 7k in hospital in England now. As the schools have gone back this week the next couple of week's figures will be very important (not that it needs saying really). In comparison to the 1st wave where the reduction week on week was between 15 and 20% each week when the numbers were similar we appear to be treating patients quicker and more effectively this time.

Add to that the vaccinations figures of over 23M (more than a third of the population) and very importantly I'll be joining that number tomorrow of 1st doses dished out and 1.3M having had both doses things are looking good.

[Tom Joad]

Schools have gone back and traffic levels have soared. Well that's my observations this week. I'm missing the quiet roads already.