UK Covid death toll

[Brentbaggie]

The QE have cancelled all operations there now due to coronavirus in the hospital but hey ho its just the flu.

Like they did in 2018....for flu.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01...s-january/

I've spoken to an MP this morning who tells me the QE made no attempt to catch up on elective surgery during June, July & August either....

Must be true then

*If* a proper Inquiry is ever made into the instutional handling of Covid 19 I suspect the NHS won't come out of it well.

The NHS or the Minister for Health?

[baggy1]

They'll definitely need to put the blame somewhere to distract from their own culpability.

And on a separate note of excess deaths - the preliminary report for week 44 (the one I was concerned about and figured Johnson must have seen something in to cause the sudden reaction of lockdown) are showing as no excess deaths. I haven't got any figures yet, they come out Tuesday, but they are not showing an increase above the normal in the weekly PHE report.

If that proves to be the case then the extended furlough until March (especially as it isn't sector specific) and the timing of locking down plus the period of 4 weeks seems bizarre.

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They'll definitely need to put the blame somewhere to distract from their own culpability.

And on a separate note of excess deaths - the preliminary report for week 44 (the one I was concerned about and figured Johnson must have seen something in to cause the sudden reaction of lockdown) are showing as no excess deaths. I haven't got any figures yet, they come out Tuesday, but they are not showing an increase above the normal in the weekly PHE report.

If that proves to be the case then the extended furlough until March (especially as it isn't sector specific) and the timing of locking down plus the period of 4 weeks seems bizarre.

This is what I don't get B1. A lot of people have been questioning the lockdown because of the damage to business and jobs considering there doesn't appear to be excess deaths for the time of year.....It just seems there's an element of not really knowing how things are going to develope, so lockdown just to be safe.

That's the way I'm seeing it TT, I could have seen the point of locking down when the original SAGE warning was made, and even a couple of weeks later when Starmer pointed it out. Both of those were at a point where locking down would have stoped the increasing rate and also could incorporate half term to minimise the impact. But making a decision last Friday and for a month with the added furlough extended to March screams of panicking to me.

[tiptontown]

They'll definitely need to put the blame somewhere to distract from their own culpability.

And on a separate note of excess deaths - the preliminary report for week 44 (the one I was concerned about and figured Johnson must have seen something in to cause the sudden reaction of lockdown) are showing as no excess deaths. I haven't got any figures yet, they come out Tuesday, but they are not showing an increase above the normal in the weekly PHE report.

If that proves to be the case then the extended furlough until March (especially as it isn't sector specific) and the timing of locking down plus the period of 4 weeks seems bizarre.

This is what I don't get B1. A lot of people have been questioning the lockdown because of the damage to business and jobs considering there doesn't appear to be excess deaths for the time of year.....It just seems there's an element of not really knowing how things are going to develope, so lockdown just to be safe..

[billybassett]

Govt was asked last week to confirm the false positive rate for the PCR test. They confirmed for the first time that they don't have it: "not determined"

I know of no other scientific test in the world where you would continue the test if you couldn't be sure of the clinical outcome.

And now we have the military in Liverpool testing the whole population to try and find it with a test where the false positive rate could be 1/10/20/100%.

This in a city where the virus was flattening out end Sep. Where the hospital new cost £400m the same as we've spent with Randox in 6 mths.

If you aren't uncomfortable with what's happening , the lack of perspective and proportionality about where we are with a virus that is as.lethal as a seasonal flu (unless you're under 30 where it's.actually less lethal) and the measures we are taking to "control" something you can't control then there must be mass hypnosis delusion afoot.

[baggy1]

Billy, you make some good points about the validity and accuracy of testing and also on the political handling of everything. But then you go and spoil it with your continuous banging on about it not being any worse than flu. Compared with the 5 year average and with 2019, since the middle of March we have had 61,000 more people die than normal. When has there ever been a flu season (which we have only just got to btw) that has caused that amount of excess deaths. If there hasn't been then clearly this is more dangerous than flu. 

Now when you make points about the likelihood of people who've had it being immune or potentially weakening of the strain, then these are good points that I appreciate you bring up and well worth debating, but you undermine your good arguments with that massive fucking whopper you keep dropping in mate.

[JOK]

*If* a proper Inquiry is ever made into the instutional handling of Covid 19 I suspect the NHS won't come out of it well.

The NHS or the Minister for Health?

 Is it the fault of the Minister if clinical hospital staff do not adhere to standard  hygiene protocols or fail to wear PPE correctly?
Is it the minister’s fault that hospital management fail to ensure anti bac stations aren’t topped up?
https://www.nursingtimes.net/news/corona...7-10-2020/

Is it the minister’s sole responsibility to ensure individual hospitals adhere to basic food hygiene measures?
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/food-...-9dljtwstm

Is the minister complicit with staff at Stafford hospital where “patients had been left "sobbing and humiliated" by uncaring staff.” And “ left in soiled sheets, others crying out in pain and some so dehydrated they drank from flower vases.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-st...e-50836324

Has the minister made “avoidable medical errors” and negligence? Did he instigate the “high levels of bullying, harassment, discrimination and stress”? Was he solely to blame for the near 1900 “potentially” avoidable baby deaths, stillbirths and brain damage at Shrewsbury and Telford NHS trust.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sh...e-53361850

Did he let a woman in childbirth bleed to death?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-54752087

Did the minister personally employ Ian Patterson and allow him to mutilate hundreds of women needlessly?

Governments can’t be held responsible for every minute detail.  NHS staff are truly brilliant people, as a whole, but they are not all infallible. Should there be an enquiry, I believe we would find not every death was down to government action or inaction.  
 
Although none of the above can be attributed to it, I expect the usual candidate’s ad nauseum mantra, “ten years of Tory cuts” and “Austerity”.

[baggiebuckster]

The real issue is how many people are still susceptible to Covid. According to SAGE this is around 90% of the population thereby ensuring their figures of doom. Other scientists believe that around 30% of the population are susceptible therefore painting a totally different threat level. Yes - there have been 61000 excess deaths of which 90% of those were prior to May. Since then the averages have levelled off. So should we be looking at 2020 as a whole or looking at the 2nd half of the year for an idea of what future months hold in store. Bit like Albion last season - loads of points in the first half of the season and mid table form in the second half.

[baggy1]

@JOK - Are you suggesting that cuts weren't the reason for staff shortages and lack of equipment?

And back to covid-19, government inaction at the beginning of the pandemic, putting unqualified cronies into decision making positions, giving contracts without tender to associates businesses (in fact giving them a playbook on how to set up a business and apply for contracts), ministerial decisions on sending covid-positive patients into high risk settings, I could probably go on but you get the point - it's been a clusterfuck of bad decisions throughout.

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The real issue is how many people are still susceptible to Covid. According to SAGE this is around 90% of the population thereby ensuring their figures of doom. Other scientists believe that around 30% of the population are susceptible therefore painting a totally different threat level. Yes - there have been 61000 excess deaths of which 90% of those were prior to May. Since then the averages have levelled off. So should we be looking at 2020 as a whole or looking at the 2nd half of the year for an idea of what future months hold in store. Bit like Albion last season - loads of points in the first half of the season and mid table form in the second half.

Thye've averaged off in the summer months BB, and I would say you need to be comparing seasons rather than years. As it stand we haven't been through a winter season with this and that is why we need to take baby steps through this until we've got to March, because it really is the unknown.

[billybassett]

Billy, you make some good points about the validity and accuracy of testing and also on the political handling of everything. But then you go and spoil it with your continuous banging on about it not being any worse than flu. Compared with the 5 year average and with 2019, since the middle of March we have had 61,000 more people die than normal. When has there ever been a flu season (which we have only just got to btw) that has caused that amount of excess deaths. If there hasn't been then clearly this is more dangerous than flu. 

Now when you make points about the likelihood of people who've had it being immune or potentially weakening of the strain, then these are good points that I appreciate you bring up and well worth debating, but you undermine your good arguments with that massive fucking whopper you keep dropping in mate.

The current analysis by WHO is that the IFR is equivalent to a bad flu season. That's why I say it. That is a global report on 61 studies from across the world. That report on every iteration has seen IFR coming down.

There was an epidemic in the spring. It's now a usual endemic seasonal flu as seen by a range of numbers. 684 excess deaths in October I hear you say. 638 of them at home. Now ask yourself the question about why that is. It's not covid.

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The real issue is how many people are still susceptible to Covid. According to SAGE this is around 90% of the population thereby ensuring their figures of doom. Other scientists believe that around 30% of the population are susceptible therefore painting a totally different threat level. Yes - there have been 61000 excess deaths of which 90% of those were prior to May. Since then the averages have levelled off. So should we be looking at 2020 as a whole or looking at the 2nd half of the year for an idea of what future months hold in store. Bit like Albion last season - loads of points in the first half of the season and mid table form in the second half.

Good points so here's my build on this.

In March we didn't know whether the virus was actually new or its lethality. As I've said before it probably was the right decision to lock down for a period even though pandemic guidelines made by WHO over decades of research in Nov 2019 said that lockdowns dont work and test and trace should not be used.

Once the virus was seen to be a covid variant, with very high protein comparability to our 4 seasonal viruses then our approach to handling this should have been set. Once we knew this we knew that our T Cell immunity would provide a significant portion of the population with immunity, estimates run from 25-35%. The govt modelling was based on 100% ludicrous and corrupt.

There are a number of reasons why in some countries deaths have been higher than others. All of these reasons independent of lockdowns or masks. A low lethality 2019 seasonal flu, demographics, etc

We are now in a usual seasonal flu season. The admissions , deaths , respiratory clinical nrs are all in line for this time in any seasonal flu year.

The hypothesis I've been making is that there is absolutely NO evidence to support a second lockdown. None. Lies upon lies to protect the businesses and people making absolute hay out of this. I won't go all round the reasons now / again unless anyone wants me to but in my opinion it's the biggest case of fraud ever.

I'll keep chipping my views away I just need more people to fight for our kids future and the march of an authoritarian society. (If I hear one more person blame the young for killing granny....9

[Tom Joad]

The real issue is how many people are still susceptible to Covid. According to SAGE this is around 90% of the population thereby ensuring their figures of doom. Other scientists believe that around 30% of the population are susceptible therefore painting a totally different threat level. Yes - there have been 61000 excess deaths of which 90% of those were prior to May. Since then the averages have levelled off. So should we be looking at 2020 as a whole or looking at the 2nd half of the year for an idea of what future months hold in store. Bit like Albion last season - loads of points in the first half of the season and mid table form in the second half.

Good point. Even assuming these are the extreme positions, let's go in between. that would be just over half the population possibly susceptible. That would be hugely encouraging (IMO). As an aside, and without underestimating the effects of a terrible illness (I know people hospitalised and friend's  parents that died), I'm not hearing of anything like the horror stories I heard back in April.  In fact, I have only heard of one case among our families contacts, this time around. Of course,  many are sheltering AND we are all washing more frequently and wearing  etc.