Brexit gains.
I think there is a big point being missed here JOK which is that we knew that, and as 'nasty' as that makes the big bad EU were understood that they would take this approach at the outset. I'm pretty certain I've posted as such on here and therefore we can't complain that this is a surprise to us, this was one of the downsides to the decision that was made. It was also known to the politicians who were blasé about it (easiest deal ever etc) and weren't open that we knew we would have this.

In the analogy of the divorce, if we knew by walking away from the marriage that we would lose the house and be punished long term for leaving would that blonde down the road seem so attractive (and more importantly would she still be attracted to us with all of our financial problems).

You will probably come back with something along the lines of 'Do we want to be aligned with nasty people like that' and the answer is if we were starting afresh then probably not, but we weren't starting afresh, we were aligned with them and we knew the pain we would be suffering now but chose to downplay it.
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(06-04-2021, 07:54 AM)Protheroe Wrote: What a load of bollocks. Pick Western Europe why don't you, when I specifically mentioned accession countries.

Are you doing this deliberately or something?

Why would I pick Western European countries, hmmm? Not like they have the same freedom of movement with the accession countries as we did when we were in the EU or anything so if your hypothesis was correct they would be in the same position on median incomes?
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(06-04-2021, 06:51 AM)JOK Wrote:
(06-03-2021, 05:10 PM)Derek Hardballs Wrote:
(06-03-2021, 05:08 PM)JOK Wrote:
(06-03-2021, 11:07 AM)Derek Hardballs Wrote:
(06-03-2021, 10:33 AM)JOK Wrote: You made a tactical error there, leaving in the bit “rising global food prices”. Dilutes your point, somewhat.
Also doesn’t  mention the rising transport costs due to shortages.


Not at all, the Express are still blaming the EU red tape for it. Those are their exact words. I wonder what else the Express and Mail etc have tried to blame on the EU over the years that doesn't hold up to scrutiny?  Big Grin

You are trying to make out that it will be (and let’s remember, it’s a prediction! Although I know you believe predictions and absolute facts.) all down to the U.K. leaving to EU and even if some of it is due to the EU’s vindictiveness, there is more than one contributing factor.

The old cake and eat it argument I see. Why are the EU being vindictive? The deal was great according to the government and Brexiteers only a few months ago.
 
 What is “the old cake and eat it argument” in my post?   And please answer this one, don’t just ignore the question as usual when you have no answer. Usual deflection / slight of hand there I recon.


I see you ignore the point of the post that there are more factors at play in rising prices than you want to suggest.
“Why are the EU being vindictive”? (I think you mean why is the EU)  An example must be set to deter any further escapees. They are vindictive because they have lost their 5th largest NET contributor to its budget.

Or did you really mean how?
Historian, Niall Ferguson (A remain supporter) compares the Brexit negotiations to a contentious divorce. The EU’s insistence on agreement to an exit fee of €100 billion before any discussion of future trade agreements, Ferguson says, “is the equivalent of the spurned spouse demanding the family home, minus the mortgage, and refusing to discuss custody of the children until the deeds have been handed over.”

We were told we can not use the Galileo GPS system despite us having provide £1.4 billion for its development (1/5 of the total cost) and British companies were threatened to have their procurement contracts cancelled.

Threatening to ban the export to the UK of a legal contract for AZ vaccines; whilst also threatening to instigate a hard border in Ireland.

The EU continues to refuse to grant a long-term deal relating to the Financial Services industry, insisting on short-term equivalence procedures, which can be withdrawn with only 30 days’ notice. The price for a long-term deal, would be the UK have to accept EU regulatory control over the its economy and businesses  even though the UK already matches the EU’s regulations. What makes this situation worse is the inconsistency of the EU’s approach. Just a few days after Joe Biden was installed as the new US President, the EU granted the American Financial Services industry exactly what the UK has been asking for -full equivalence with no time limit with no binding commitments 

Deciding that UK shellfish , after living in clean, perfectly acceptable to the EU, waters for 50 years are suddenly deemed unsafe.
 
What’s with all these pansyfied epithets, you big tart?
Don’t forget the ‘cake and eat it’ question

Those who supported Brexit made us direct competitors of a much bigger trading bloc sitting right on our boarders. We left, we lost our parity of opportunity. That’s Brexit reality not rhetoric.
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(06-04-2021, 08:05 AM)Borin' Baggie Wrote:
(06-04-2021, 07:54 AM)Protheroe Wrote: What a load of bollocks. Pick Western Europe why don't you, when I specifically mentioned accession countries.

Are you doing this deliberately or something?

Why would I pick Western European countries, hmmm? Not like they have the same freedom of movement with the accession countries as we did when we were in the EU or anything so if your hypothesis was correct they would be in the same position on median incomes?

The problem is BB, you come from this perspective that the BoE was 'right' about wage suppression. At the time of the referendum when all this dubious research was being produced the government estimated there were 3 million EU nationals in the UK.

As it turns out 5.3 million have applied for settled status so far, and apllications are yet to close.

There are 5x as many coffee shops as there were at beginnning of the century - all of them rely on a steady inflow of cheap labour. Many will now close, that's not a bad thing. Agriculture will have to mechanise, that's not a bad thing. It is the right decision to end Britain's excessive dependence on cheap imported workers. It created a low age, low productivity economy and didn't do much for output per head even if total output increased.

We're just about to find out how reliant we were, and it won't be pretty.
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(06-04-2021, 11:14 AM)Protheroe Wrote: The problem is BB, you come from this perspective that the BoE was 'right' about wage suppression. At the time of the referendum when all this dubious research was being produced the government estimated there were 3 million EU nationals in the UK.

As it turns out 5.3 million have applied for settled status so far, and apllications are yet to close.

There are 5x as many coffee shops as there were at beginnning of the century - all of them rely on a steady inflow of cheap labour. Many will now close, that's not a bad thing. Agriculture will have to mechanise, that's not a bad thing. It is the right decision to end Britain's excessive dependence on cheap imported workers. It created a low age, low productivity economy and didn't do much for output per head even if total output increased.

We're just about to find out how reliant we were, and it won't be pretty.

No, the problem is Proth is that your position on this is built around a fundamentally illiberal (in the Classical sense of the word) populism not backed by any evidence and you refuse to listen to any evidence as it contradicts your worldview. My position isn't just based on the BoE's assessment, it's fundamentally based on the liberal interpretations on labour movement as established by Hobbes, Locke and Smith, it's corroborated by evidence both central bank backed and independently conducted and it's validated by me actually looking at the available data.

It isn't just the BoE, the BoE's study has been corroborated by independent and peer reviewed analysis with zero actual evidence in your favour. This isn't even particularly hard to evaluate by itself, you just need to compare the median wage growth against rate of EU migration which validates what the BoE said given that when EU migration was at it's highest so was wages, and this has covered two separate periods of time. That's an awful lot of people, most with no bone in the argument whatsoever, that would need to be in on some sort of conspiracy.

You've also flat out ignored the effect of induced investment (increased demand) as a result of the movement of labour which would (and all evidence suggests has) mitigate any negative effects on abundance of supply which is what the evidence and data suggests, you can't just apply supply and demand selectively around how you want the world to work.

Then there's the issue of the UK having near full employment, the employment rate is so low that it is circular yet before the pandemic there was demand for jobs. Why? Because demand is higher than supply, so therefore no wage suppression.

On top of all of that, we were not the only EU member state that was "effected" by freedom of movement. Yet we have the third lowest median incomes in all of Western Europe. If freedom of movement was the thing supressing low-skilled wages in the UK then why does this not apply to anywhere else? Why are skilled jobs also affected by lower wages outside of the service sector?
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(06-02-2021, 04:10 PM)baggy1 Wrote:
(06-02-2021, 04:08 PM)Ossian Wrote: To be fair Derek, a lot of this stuff becomes easier with the benefit of hindsight.

Yes, European countries are, as it turns out, 'geographically closer' to the UK but how many of us can say, hand on heart, that we were aware of that before 2016? Clearly not Tim, or his expensively educated drinking buddy who apparently can't even be trusted to pull a pint.

And that is the crux of the matter Oss, if only someone could have pointed out that stopping freedom of movement would mean we'd have to pull our own pints, pick our own potatoes or even wipe the arses of our elderly relatives god forbid, then I'm sure we'd have looked at this differently.

I’ll tell you how you get more people to do jobs like that: pay more money. 

I find it totally and utterly bizarre that bringing in migrant workers on slave labour rates of pay is somehow seen as progressive...
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(06-04-2021, 10:38 PM)Malcolm Tucker Wrote:
(06-02-2021, 04:10 PM)baggy1 Wrote:
(06-02-2021, 04:08 PM)Ossian Wrote: To be fair Derek, a lot of this stuff becomes easier with the benefit of hindsight.

Yes, European countries are, as it turns out, 'geographically closer' to the UK but how many of us can say, hand on heart, that we were aware of that before 2016? Clearly not Tim, or his expensively educated drinking buddy who apparently can't even be trusted to pull a pint.

And that is the crux of the matter Oss, if only someone could have pointed out that stopping freedom of movement would mean we'd have to pull our own pints, pick our own potatoes or even wipe the arses of our elderly relatives god forbid, then I'm sure we'd have looked at this differently.

I’ll tell you how you get more people to do jobs like that: pay more money. 

I find it totally and utterly bizarre that bringing in migrant workers on slave labour rates of pay is somehow seen as progressive...

Good luck with getting people from the U.K. to last more than a couple of weeks picking fruit etc no matter what the pay. The BBC followed a farm in Kent that was paying above the minimum wage for workers from abroad and the U.K. a month in there was one person from the U.K. that had stuck it out out of a team I think 25. 

Within a few generations we have gone from people enjoying back breaking hop picking holidays in Herefordshire etc to moaning they can’t go to Portugal on holiday during a pandemic. It’s going to take considerable cultural change to make many jobs be attractive to your average U.K. resident. 

Another example is many bar staff have left the trade to work in supermarkets because they are fed up if the hassle the job entails for the wage they get. If the choice is deal with drunken idiots scrapping in their local Wetherspoons or the relative calm of stacking shelves in Sainsbury’s I think most would choose the latter. A few pounds either way isn’t going to alter that. Better behaved customers probably would though.

Or another example, Carers should be seen as a noble and integral service that benefits society but it’s treated as a Cinderella service by both the government and private sector. It’s not valued or seen as a career choice if you have other options not just because of wages, but that clearly has an impact but because many see the job as something that’s needed but not something they would like to do. 

It’s not as simple as just wages it’s going to take a huge cultural shift to make the jobs many people from abroad do something most people from the U.K. are will willing to do if they have choice.  

I always remember a Polish bank manager at a local bank telling me some young bloke had come in to talk about his bank account and she asked him what job he did. His reply was ‘you work so I don’t have to’. As I said this is a cultural problem as much as a financial one.
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(06-05-2021, 08:18 AM)Derek Hardballs Wrote:
(06-04-2021, 10:38 PM)Malcolm Tucker Wrote:
(06-02-2021, 04:10 PM)baggy1 Wrote:
(06-02-2021, 04:08 PM)Ossian Wrote: To be fair Derek, a lot of this stuff becomes easier with the benefit of hindsight.

Yes, European countries are, as it turns out, 'geographically closer' to the UK but how many of us can say, hand on heart, that we were aware of that before 2016? Clearly not Tim, or his expensively educated drinking buddy who apparently can't even be trusted to pull a pint.

And that is the crux of the matter Oss, if only someone could have pointed out that stopping freedom of movement would mean we'd have to pull our own pints, pick our own potatoes or even wipe the arses of our elderly relatives god forbid, then I'm sure we'd have looked at this differently.

I’ll tell you how you get more people to do jobs like that: pay more money. 

I find it totally and utterly bizarre that bringing in migrant workers on slave labour rates of pay is somehow seen as progressive...

Good luck with getting people from the U.K. to last more than a couple of weeks picking fruit etc no matter what the pay. The BBC followed a farm in Kent that was paying above the minimum wage for workers from abroad and the U.K. a month in there was one person from the U.K. that had stuck it out out of a team I think 25. 

Within a few generations we have gone from people enjoying back breaking hop picking holidays in Herefordshire etc to moaning they can’t go to Portugal on holiday during a pandemic. It’s going to take considerable cultural change to make many jobs be attractive to your average U.K. resident. 

Another example is many bar staff have left the trade to work in supermarkets because they are fed up if the hassle the job entails for the wage they get. If the choice is deal with drunken idiots scrapping in their local Wetherspoons or the relative calm of stacking shelves in Sainsbury’s I think most would choose the latter. A few pounds either way isn’t going to alter that. Better behaved customers probably would though.

Or another example, Carers should be seen as a noble and integral service that benefits society but it’s treated as a Cinderella service by both the government and private sector. It’s not valued or seen as a career choice if you have other options not just because of wages, but that clearly has an impact but because many see the job as something that’s needed but not something they would like to do. 

It’s not as simple as just wages it’s going to take a huge cultural shift to make the jobs many people from abroad do something most people from the U.K. are will willing to do if they have choice.  

I always remember a Polish bank manager at a local bank telling me some young bloke had come in to talk about his bank account and she asked him what job he did. His reply was ‘you work so I don’t have to’. As I said this is a cultural problem as much as a financial one.

If I sift out all the usual catterwailing then what you're saying is a significant change needs to take place and a good one at that. I agree.
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(06-04-2021, 08:15 AM)Derek Hardballs Wrote:
(06-04-2021, 06:51 AM)JOK Wrote:
(06-03-2021, 05:10 PM)Derek Hardballs Wrote: The old cake and eat it argument I see. Why are the EU being vindictive? The deal was great according to the government and Brexiteers only a few months ago.
 
 What is “the old cake and eat it argument” in my post?   And please answer this one, don’t just ignore the question as usual when you have no answer.
I see you ignore the point of the post that there are more factors at play in rising prices than you want to suggest.
“Why are the EU being vindictive”? (I think you mean why is the EU)  An example must be set to deter any further escapees. They are vindictive because they have lost their 5th largest NET contributor to its budget.
Or did you really mean how?
We were told we can not use the Galileo GPS system despite us having provide £1.4 billion for its development (1/5 of the total cost) and British companies were threatened to have their procurement contracts cancelled.
The EU continues to refuse to grant a long-term deal relating to the Financial Services industry, insisting on short-term equivalence procedures, which can be withdrawn with only 30 days’ notice... even though the UK already matches the EU’s regulations.  Just a few days after Joe Biden was installed as the new US President, the EU granted the American Financial Services industry exactly what the UK has been asking for -full equivalence with no time limit with no binding commitments 
Don’t forget the ‘cake and eat it’ question
Those who supported Brexit made us direct competitors of a much bigger trading bloc sitting right on our boarders. We left, we lost our parity of opportunity. That’s Brexit reality not rhetoric.
 
 Still no answer to what in my post could refer to ‘cake and eat it’ or any counter to the examples I used for the ‘vindictive’ comment you took exception to. Or acknowledgment that your inference and that of the article you used, that it is only Brexit which will, possibly, cause a rise in food prices.


Usual waffle and deflection. You could be a politician; they always answer a different question to the ones they are asked.
I’ll ask more direct questions to you:

How do you justify the USA having a guaranteed, long term settlement for it’s financial services (granted within days) when the UK is denied one? 

Why, having provide a fifth of the development cost for the GPS system, we are not allowed to use it when states, still in the EU, who haven’t contributed a penny can? Switzerland now also has access after chucking in 80 million euro.

We didn’t lose “our parity of opportunity”, we lost our access to parity to protectionism! (Because we denied them access to our money and job market)

Awaits answers with little confidence.
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The problem is JOK that we knew this before we decided to leave, and as said before you will say 'well why do we want to be part of that' and you are right but the problem was we were part of it. We basically were in a partitioned room with a big dog that protected us from the outside world, we removed that partition and are moaning that the dog is looking like it's about to bite us.
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