UK Covid death toll

[Malcolm Tucker]

True shabs as with road deaths etc. One scary figure I saw yesterday was that the number of cancer diagnoses was down 60,000 this year. That is probably due to individuals not going to hospital to get tested which can only lead to longer term problems.

This is the real issue. What other problems is the lockdown creating that we’ll have to live with for years/decades? 

My ‘open the pubs’ comment was just a flippant remark rather than a suggested strategy.

[baggy1]

Sorry Malc - I misread the pub comment, I've been spending too much time on Twitter with jubilant Tories spouting the magnificent achievements of the mop haired buffoon and his bunch of nodding smilers. I'm a bit trigger happy

[JOK]

Sorry Malc - I misread the pub comment, I've been spending too much time on Twitter with jubilant Tories spouting the magnificent achievements of the mop haired buffoon and his bunch of nodding smilers. I'm a bit trigger happy

See, that’s why I ‘self isolate’ from here for a few days every so often. It gets so the ‘reasonable’ and ‘civil’ buttons turn off and the ‘angry gain say’ and ‘partisan’ levers seem to get cranked up. B1, have a rest and let yer mental health have a bit of a reboot.

[baggy1]

The figures for week ended 22nd May are out and there is a cautious optimism with them showing the excess death figures are definitely reducing. This is the lowest weekly excess death figure since March. 

Compared to 2019 as at week 21 there are 60,442 excess deaths in England and Wales. Scotland and NI were approx 5k last time i heard. The excess death figure for the week (21) was 2,004 compared with 4,301, 3,602 and 6,746 in the previous 3 weeks. This should be the last week that the original lockdown measures are reflected so the weeks going forward will be extremely important to see how we are doing.

Again the age groups show a real picture with 225 excess deaths in the U45s, just over 5k in the 45-64 age bracket, and 55k from the over 65s.

Unfortunately we are still averaging nearly 300 excess deaths a day which needs to be remembered in all of the political bullshit. Fingers crossed we carry on with this week on week reduction

And as ever the Beeb have done a better version with graphs : BBC live feed

They are using the 5 year average figure and including the data from the 4 nations which gives a slightly better view of the figures but better as it smooths out any unusual spikes. The other interesting figure on their data is the 48k where the death cert mentions Covid-19, the govt have only just started to put this on the slides as a footnote and continue to use the 38k figure. As the 48k figure does not include last weeks figures we have reached the sad figure of over 50k deaths in E&W. I think this should be recognised by the govt as it is a milestone that will remind people how serious this is, especially for the older generation.

[baggy1]

Positive news from this weeks figures (up to week ended 29th May), the increase in excess death number has slowed down to around 1,500 for the year to date. Sadly that is still over 200 a day but we are moving in the right direction. If we can get down to the double and single figures that other European countries are recording then we will be at a point where we can see how this will pan out. This weeks demonstrations will be a real indicator of whether or not this virus is burning itself out and if we can get back to normal.

Excess deaths for the U45s group actually fell from last week - still a very small number with only 211 for this age bracket.

Under 65s crept up to 5,190, a small increase of about 130

Over 65s is still the main area affected with over 56k excess deaths which has increased around 1,500 on the previous week.

Overall for England and Wales the excess deaths for the year to date is 62,006 up to 29th May. Scotland and NI will add over another 5k so let's not forget how big a number this is.

[billybassett]

Again the age groups show a real picture with 225 excess deaths in the U45s, just over 5k in the 45-64 age bracket, and 55k from the over 65s.

Again another real stat to show we should be getting this age group all out and working/schooling and all the auld folks and vulnerable people should just stay in a while longer. With other stats like 60k less cancer diagnoses etc people really need to start weighing the real risks here.

[baggy1]

Agree to a point Billy, but the government appears paralysed into making a decision, or even having a strategy to deliver any decision they make. One note of caution is that figure is deaths and because we have no way of measuring infection effectively we are blind on how it is transferring. The cabinet appear to only be able to focus on one thing at a time and they are being led by someone who struggles to do even that.

The stumbling block appears to be getting kids back into schools to allow parents to get back to work. The govt have known about this for months now and set out an impossible plan - half class sizes for all, no thought to amount of teachers or classrooms needed, and no rota timetables allowed. Anybody can see that can't work. It would be interesting to see how far they have thought ahead on this and are planning for extra room (portacabins for example) or some form of supply teacher plan. I'd bet good money on the plan being 'this will go away, so it'll sort itself'.

[TETLEY74]

Agree to a point Billy, but the government appears paralysed into making a decision, or even having a strategy to deliver any decision they make. One note of caution is that figure is deaths and because we have no way of measuring infection effectively we are blind on how it is transferring. The cabinet appear to only be able to focus on one thing at a time and they are being led by someone who struggles to do even that.

The stumbling block appears to be getting kids back into schools to allow parents to get back to work. The govt have known about this for months now and set out an impossible plan - half class sizes for all, no thought to amount of teachers or classrooms needed, and no rota timetables allowed. Anybody can see that can't work. It would be interesting to see how far they have thought ahead on this and are planning for extra room (portacabins for example) or some form of supply teacher plan. I'd bet good money on the plan being 'this will go away, so it'll sort itself'.

Sadly I'm beinging to think your right.

[billybassett]

Agree to a point Billy, but the government appears paralysed into making a decision, or even having a strategy to deliver any decision they make. One note of caution is that figure is deaths and because we have no way of measuring infection effectively we are blind on how it is transferring. The cabinet appear to only be able to focus on one thing at a time and they are being led by someone who struggles to do even that.

The stumbling block appears to be getting kids back into schools to allow parents to get back to work. The govt have known about this for months now and set out an impossible plan - half class sizes for all, no thought to amount of teachers or classrooms needed, and no rota timetables allowed. Anybody can see that can't work. It would be interesting to see how far they have thought ahead on this and are planning for extra room (portacabins for example) or some form of supply teacher plan. I'd bet good money on the plan being 'this will go away, so it'll sort itself'.

Trouble is I don't understand the getting back to schools problem. Under 45s are all safe. All kids are under 45. All vulnerable teachers or very old teachers, or untested teachers have to stay away. Many schools are open anyway for key workers. Granny and Grandad can't pick up little Johnny or Jemima from school but mother Crystabel and father Tarquin can handle that flexibly through work. Worst case scenario is that some parents can't do this so Johnny and Jemima stay home.

They want to impose social distancing of primary school kids / any kids when the evidence is clear that a) they're kids and b) they're safe.

Perhaps for another thread but quite honestly the way this government have handled all this is quite frankly a joke and down right negligent.

[billybassett]

I tend to agree but other EU countries opening schools are enforcing social distancing and if our government said open schools and no need for it I am sure people would be jumping up and down saying it was reckless and probably would be right. How often have the facts and what we know about the virus changed?  WHO last week changed their minds on face masks and were suggesting the other day asymptomatic folk may not be spreaders then as quickly rowing back on it. 
But, after a few weeks of easing and idiots on beaches all packed together and protests and so on, cases still falling and no sign of this second wave. So fingers crossed we are nearly through this and such measures will be discarded before September.

Yes take your point completely about the need to be being seen to be doing the right thing as opposed to doing the right thing.

There won't be a second wave - it would be the third wave. There's already plenty of evidence suggesting that the virus in China was up and running well before December and that this is actually the second wave that we are coming out of.

Look at the case rate for London at the moment. very low. time to get back to work/play.