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+--- Thread: OBR leaks the Budget. (/showthread.php?tid=39451)
OBR leaks the Budget. - Jacko - 11-26-2025
Chaos reigns.
RE: OBR leaks the Budget. - man in the corner shop - 11-26-2025
I've just read the budget news
I'm OK with it.
How is the pound doing? And the markets? And I don't mean Walsall and Wednesbury!
RE: OBR leaks the Budget. - CarlosCorbewrong - 11-26-2025
How’re the HMO mortgage rates?
RE: OBR leaks the Budget. - baggy1 - 11-26-2025
Markets seem to have liked it and I didn't see any major shocks to most people in there. Freezing of rates is always a pain but not going to impact for a while. I can't imagine many people are going to be impacted by not being able to put £20k into an ISA and only £12k so any negatives appear to be political rather than real ones.
RE: OBR leaks the Budget. - HugeHons - 11-26-2025
(11-26-2025, 05:07 PM)baggy1 Wrote: Markets seem to have liked it and I didn't see any major shocks to most people in there. Freezing of rates is always a pain but not going to impact for a while. I can't imagine many people are going to be impacted by not being able to put £20k into an ISA and only £12k so any negatives appear to be political rather than real ones.
Selfishly, I was disappointed with the frozen tax rates ( but it wasn’t a surprise). It has been the source of a ‘pay rise’ for myself and many people over the years, especially as I work for a company that rarely gives us a yearly rise. ( my wages have risen by £1500 in 5 years). However, I judge the Government (whoever it might be) on much more than this.
RE: OBR leaks the Budget. - Logic1 - 11-26-2025
According to the Tories the world has ended today. Important to note... The Tories increased the tax burden from 36% to 37%. Labour are going to increase it from 37% to 38%. We will still be middle of the pack across similar economies in terms of this ratio.
My view of this is the following: I think about 60% of UK households have a pet. On that basis, I think we can all afford a bit more tax to help fund our downtrodden public services.
RE: OBR leaks the Budget. - Borin' Baggie - 11-26-2025
(11-26-2025, 05:35 PM)Logic1 Wrote: According to the Tories the world has ended today.
It's basically the same underlying principles that has covered every budget since March 2010, most of those were under Tory chancellors
RE: OBR leaks the Budget. - man in the corner shop - 11-26-2025
(11-26-2025, 05:07 PM)baggy1 Wrote: Markets seem to have liked it and I didn't see any major shocks to most people in there. Freezing of rates is always a pain but not going to impact for a while. I can't imagine many people are going to be impacted by not being able to put £20k into an ISA and only £12k so any negatives appear to be political rather than real ones.
Thanks
Excuse me but 12k instead of 20k might affect some people's glidepath a little
Can we say "well done Labour?"
What does the Daily Mail tell the hard of thinking to think?
RE: OBR leaks the Budget. - Protheroe - 11-26-2025
Tax allowances have been frozen since 2019. In that period inflation CPI has increased by a cumulative 30%. The personal allowance would be £16,341 (£12,570) & the Higher rate allowance would be £65,352 (£50,270).
Essentially the Labour Party is continuing the Tories' policy of letting inflation eat your lunch and increasingly, your dinner too. The OBR has predicted inflation will remain well above the 2% target for the foreseeable. As the OBR has consistently underestimated inflation, then expect it to remain embedded until a government is elected that is actually prepared to deal with it - which with the current landscape will be sometime never.
Prices are going up because the government is reducing the value of your money.
Benefits are being extended and uprated by inflation, or more in the case of the State Pension. Labour has decided to spend £10bn more on benefits than £5bn it promised to cut this time last year. At the same time that benefits are uprated tax allowances are not, private sector salary sacrifice becomes taxable without any reform on the horizon for £1.3 trillion in unfunded public sector pensions thus further embedding pensions apartheid (I'm going to begin drawing my funded LGPS 12 years early in a few months before the state gets its hands on it - I suggest any in a similar position think about doing the same).
The increases in the Minimum Wage are a job killer as much as the NI increases were last year. I have to ask why anyone on a modest wage would bother getting promoted for a £ or two more per hour than the £23,000 they'll soon be able to get arranging trollies in Asda car park. I am exceptionally worried about the employment prospects for young people.
Rents will continue their upward curve as more individual landlords exit due to the RR Act and an additional tax burden without any cost allowances. Our small propco is currently piling in to buy from such landlords. We are able secure deals with offers substantially below those forthcoming from FTBs because we are 28-day proceedable and they are not. Return on equity remains at 25%+. I readily admit that I am part of the housing problem - but when successive governments have cut off most other avenues for returns then what is a capitalist to do?
You will still be able to place £20,000 "cash" in an ISA by using the other £8,000 to buy a cheap money market fund or ETF. Not that cash is any store of value these days.
I have ceased to get exorcised over Budgets these days. I thought this one would be a Labour Budget for the PLP and so it has turned out. I predicted in July 2024 that Labour would prove to be the least popular government on record within eighteen months and so it has turned out. That said - whoever had won the last election would be in the same predicament if they continue to be led by the OBR's 5 year nose, rather than looking up and seeing the demographic and fiscal juggernaut that is going to hit us within a generation.
Everyone will pay more. Everyone will be poorer. We could have dealt with this like grown-ups in 2008. But here we are, again. It's like groundhog day and it's only going to get progressively worse for most people.
If you have any money to invest I suggest the practicality and agility offered by Offshore Bonds. I don't think gold is done yet either, as long as central banks keep buying it - and there's no reason to suggest they won't as aging developed economies flirt with default. I regret selling my Britainnias a while back, but not as much as Labour's most celebrated Chancellor (arf) Gordon Brown regrets selling 400 tonnes at $275 an ounce.
Good luck all. We'll need it.
RE: OBR leaks the Budget. - Jacko - 11-27-2025
Now they've raised taxes, why stick to any other manifesto pledges?