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+--- Thread: UK Covid death toll (/showthread.php?tid=10162)
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RE: UK Covid death toll - baggiebuckster - 11-25-2020
(11-25-2020, 11:30 AM)baggy1 Wrote: What is causing the current excess then?
Let me put it another way - There are 2k more deaths than normal for week 46. Do you think that there were more or less than 2k covid deaths in that week, if you agree that there were probably about 2k covid deaths in week 46 then the excess deaths will be down to covid because we didn't have it in week 46 of 2019. It really is that simple.
If you don't believe that there are any covid deaths any more then you need to ask why there are 2k more deaths than normal.
I'm struggling to understand why you both don't get such a basic principle of measuring excess deaths.
I can't answer for Billy but I am not denying that some of those 2k excess deaths are due to Covid. However I don't believe they all are.
What has caused the extra 100 excess deaths at home per day since March which is now at 140 excess deaths at home per day? Surely not all Covid.
Some of the recent excess deaths could be people who didn't get treatment in the last 8 months for other problems. Some of those excess deaths sadly may be due to suicides.
Clearly Covid is still doing the rounds and is responsible for deaths but thankfully not in such large numbers as spring time. Why is that? Better treatment? Less vulnerable people? Less prevalent in society since we don't really know the true case numbers from spring time since only hospital admissions were tested?
Not sure anyone knows the answers but the farcical decision making by this Government who pretend to be following some form of scientific reasoning makes people like me suspicious. If that makes me a covidiot or whatever names are banded about then I will accept the title. I have pretty much followed the rules to the letter since day one but that doesn't mean I can't question anything.
These days it seems to me you are either classed as a sheep or a flat earther with no in-between. Anyone thinking that is not worth engaging with anyway as they are clearly just repeating what others have spouted. Not suggesting you are that by the way baggy but I do question your sanity when you think Albion may win a trophy before you are 100!
RE: UK Covid death toll - billybassett - 11-25-2020
(11-25-2020, 11:55 AM)Derek Hardballs Wrote:(11-25-2020, 11:30 AM)baggy1 Wrote: What is causing the current excess then?
Let me put it another way - There are 2k more deaths than normal for week 46. Do you think that there were more or less than 2k covid deaths in that week, if you agree that there were probably about 2k covid deaths in week 46 then the excess deaths will be down to covid because we didn't have it in week 46 of 2019. It really is that simple.
If you don't believe that there are any covid deaths any more then you need to ask why there are 2k more deaths than normal.
I'm struggling to understand why you both don't get such a basic principle of measuring excess deaths.
Because if you don't believe, you can then justify your position with regards to going back to normal.
Normal FFS. Because of the measures there will be no normal. You will be wishing for the Covid 2020 year as normal. The next decade of pain. Honestly some people don't really think before putting their foot in their mouth do they. So naïve and obviously dull.
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 11-25-2020
@Baggiebuckster
We're probably not as far apart as you think BB, I think that a month long (limited) lockdown was unnecessary and that a shorter one when hospitalisations started to rise would have done the job.
My thoughts are, and I have no proof or basis on this other than gut, that the virus started to move from the North East, North West into the Midlands and this is what spooked the govt because they didn't want to risk it growing in London again. Now there can be two schools of thought here, 1stly that they have been through it once and were heavily hit therefore they would not have been affected because they have immunity. That would be disproven if they did take a hit, and that is a gamble to find out. Or secondly, they knew how close we were to a vaccine so why gamble with anything at all when a solution is so close.
RE: UK Covid death toll - richbaggie - 11-25-2020
(11-25-2020, 02:06 PM)baggiebuckster Wrote:(11-25-2020, 11:30 AM)baggy1 Wrote: What is causing the current excess then?
Let me put it another way - There are 2k more deaths than normal for week 46. Do you think that there were more or less than 2k covid deaths in that week, if you agree that there were probably about 2k covid deaths in week 46 then the excess deaths will be down to covid because we didn't have it in week 46 of 2019. It really is that simple.
If you don't believe that there are any covid deaths any more then you need to ask why there are 2k more deaths than normal.
I'm struggling to understand why you both don't get such a basic principle of measuring excess deaths.
I can't answer for Billy but I am not denying that some of those 2k excess deaths are due to Covid. However I don't believe they all are.
What has caused the extra 100 excess deaths at home per day since March which is now at 140 excess deaths at home per day? Surely not all Covid.
Some of the recent excess deaths could be people who didn't get treatment in the last 8 months for other problems. Some of those excess deaths sadly may be due to suicides.
Clearly Covid is still doing the rounds and is responsible for deaths but thankfully not in such large numbers as spring time. Why is that? Better treatment? Less vulnerable people? Less prevalent in society since we don't really know the true case numbers from spring time since only hospital admissions were tested?
Not sure anyone knows the answers but the farcical decision making by this Government who pretend to be following some form of scientific reasoning makes people like me suspicious. If that makes me a covidiot or whatever names are banded about then I will accept the title. I have pretty much followed the rules to the letter since day one but that doesn't mean I can't question anything.
These days it seems to me you are either classed as a sheep or a flat earther with no in-between. Anyone thinking that is not worth engaging with anyway as they are clearly just repeating what others have spouted. Not suggesting you are that by the way baggy but I do question your sanity when you think Albion may win a trophy before you are 100!
You are very much in the same headspace as me. There are so many stats out there that don't get any exposure in the media that put question marks against what we do and how we have managed things. Excess deaths at home is one if those. If you try and raise them you run the risk of being called a denier, a granny killer, lacking empathy or a covidiot or such like.
I have never been one for conspiracy theories, and I genuinely don't think there is a worldwide one with all this. But for some reason I am finding myself distrusting Sage. They feel way too close to the corrupt govt we have in place to trust in them.
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 11-25-2020
The more deaths in the home one is pretty simple IMO - hospitals weren't admitting people and people were scared to go to hospital so more died at home. I don't think it's any more sinister than that. And strictly speaking excess deaths can only be used in total as opposed to location specifically.
There are some figures and govt actions that have made the whole situation worse - the chucking them into care homes for example, this accounted for an estimated 20k which would bring the total number right down. It's difficult to measure exactly because they may have got it from elsewhere, carers, visitors etc but it's something that is underreported and hidden in the masse.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Derek Hardballs - 11-25-2020
(11-25-2020, 02:23 PM)billybassett Wrote:(11-25-2020, 11:55 AM)Derek Hardballs Wrote:(11-25-2020, 11:30 AM)baggy1 Wrote: What is causing the current excess then?
Let me put it another way - There are 2k more deaths than normal for week 46. Do you think that there were more or less than 2k covid deaths in that week, if you agree that there were probably about 2k covid deaths in week 46 then the excess deaths will be down to covid because we didn't have it in week 46 of 2019. It really is that simple.
If you don't believe that there are any covid deaths any more then you need to ask why there are 2k more deaths than normal.
I'm struggling to understand why you both don't get such a basic principle of measuring excess deaths.
Because if you don't believe, you can then justify your position with regards to going back to normal.
Normal FFS. Because of the measures there will be no normal. You will be wishing for the Covid 2020 year as normal. The next decade of pain. Honestly some people don't really think before putting their foot in their mouth do they. So naïve and obviously dull.
No the naivety is all yours. How many times have I said that 'normal' is transient it is always changing, World changing events speed the rate of change up, it was never an option to 'go back to normal'. Just like there was a new normal after WW1 and the Spanish Flu which killed more people than the war. Events dear boy, events- Harold Macmillan
As for dull, you pretending to be an expert on this subject dulls the brain I agree.
(11-25-2020, 03:32 PM)richbaggie Wrote:(11-25-2020, 02:06 PM)baggiebuckster Wrote:(11-25-2020, 11:30 AM)baggy1 Wrote: What is causing the current excess then?
Let me put it another way - There are 2k more deaths than normal for week 46. Do you think that there were more or less than 2k covid deaths in that week, if you agree that there were probably about 2k covid deaths in week 46 then the excess deaths will be down to covid because we didn't have it in week 46 of 2019. It really is that simple.
If you don't believe that there are any covid deaths any more then you need to ask why there are 2k more deaths than normal.
I'm struggling to understand why you both don't get such a basic principle of measuring excess deaths.
I can't answer for Billy but I am not denying that some of those 2k excess deaths are due to Covid. However I don't believe they all are.
What has caused the extra 100 excess deaths at home per day since March which is now at 140 excess deaths at home per day? Surely not all Covid.
Some of the recent excess deaths could be people who didn't get treatment in the last 8 months for other problems. Some of those excess deaths sadly may be due to suicides.
Clearly Covid is still doing the rounds and is responsible for deaths but thankfully not in such large numbers as spring time. Why is that? Better treatment? Less vulnerable people? Less prevalent in society since we don't really know the true case numbers from spring time since only hospital admissions were tested?
Not sure anyone knows the answers but the farcical decision making by this Government who pretend to be following some form of scientific reasoning makes people like me suspicious. If that makes me a covidiot or whatever names are banded about then I will accept the title. I have pretty much followed the rules to the letter since day one but that doesn't mean I can't question anything.
These days it seems to me you are either classed as a sheep or a flat earther with no in-between. Anyone thinking that is not worth engaging with anyway as they are clearly just repeating what others have spouted. Not suggesting you are that by the way baggy but I do question your sanity when you think Albion may win a trophy before you are 100!
You are very much in the same headspace as me. There are so many stats out there that don't get any exposure in the media that put question marks against what we do and how we have managed things. Excess deaths at home is one if those. If you try and raise them you run the risk of being called a denier, a granny killer, lacking empathy or a covidiot or such like.
I have never been one for conspiracy theories, and I genuinely don't think there is a worldwide one with all this. But for some reason I am finding myself distrusting Sage. They feel way too close to the corrupt govt we have in place to trust in them.
What about the independent Sage Group? They were set-up to challenge, scrutinise the official line.
RE: UK Covid death toll - billybassett - 11-25-2020
You said going "back to normal" and actually added nothing to the debate.
Ask yourself why the UK Vaccine Task force won't publish a list of their members? Then ask yourself about SAGE dear boy.
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 11-25-2020
They probably won't want to put their members (and their families) through the inevitable death threat and social media abuse.
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 11-26-2020
Here you go Billy, this bloke appears to know a bit about immunology and he has some good points that answer your questions that you have cut and paste from twitter. He makes some good points about how Mike Yeadon is possibly wrong, dare I say even on the 0.1% false positive theory for PCR testing that you bring up now and again (spoiler alert, it was never 0.1% false positives - the number was so small for false positive that they couldn't measure it so that described it as less than 0.1%, this got translated by, dare I say, people that wanted to misinterpret that fact as 0.1%.)
https://twitter.com/andrew_croxford
You might be better off reading his views rather than asking retirees and accountants on a football message board.
So lets see:
Excess deaths being the same as the worst year we've had recently 'adjusted for population growth' - Wrong
Massive increase in people being referred to NHS Mental Health services - Incorrect
Excess deaths not being in the same areas as where the virus is - Nope
And now, PCR testing has 0.1% false positive - Don't look like it
I'll leave you to research your theories with Mr.Croxford, I'll just stick to those boring old facts and sheeple along.
RE: UK Covid death toll - billybassett - 11-26-2020
(11-26-2020, 09:26 AM)baggy1 Wrote: Here you go Billy, this bloke appears to know a bit about immunology and he has some good points that answer your questions that you have cut and paste from twitter. He makes some good points about how Mike Yeadon is possibly wrong, dare I say even on the 0.1% false positive theory for PCR testing that you bring up now and again (spoiler alert, it was never 0.1% false positives - the number was so small for false positive that they couldn't measure it so that described it as less than 0.1%, this got translated by, dare I say, people that wanted to misinterpret that fact as 0.1%.)
https://twitter.com/andrew_croxford
You might be better off reading his views rather than asking retirees and accountants on a football message board.
So lets see:
Excess deaths being the same as the worst year we've had recently 'adjusted for population growth' - Wrong
Massive increase in people being referred to NHS Mental Health services - Incorrect
Excess deaths not being in the same areas as where the virus is - Nope
And now, PCR testing has 0.1% false positive - Don't look like it
I'll leave you to research your theories with Mr.Croxford, I'll just stick to those boring old facts and sheeple along.
A guy who joined twitter a month ago working for a pharma firm. Unlike you I go to multiple sources thanks and do my research rather than just paste off Hancock's crib sheet or twitter like you've done.
Try reading this https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.13.20151233v5.full for example. I have. Tells you all you need to know about Imperial's modelling. But we know why they're interested in making us all scared and clamouring for a vaccine.
Telling though how the first real thing you've posted about the inanity of the PCR test is to somehow pick out one person's view on it. Forget the Portuguese court, the beginnings of A German lawsuit and Italian ones. Forget the sensitive lateral flow tests that give a completely different and much lower case rate. Or why is it that a scientific test in use for 8 mths hasn't got a published false positive rate. I mean when I go for a prostate test they tell me the false positive up front and ntot to worry. Eyes open sunshine.
Your whole analysis of excess deaths is completely flawed since June but that's because you tune into Bojos and Hancock's half hour every day and spoon it in. I mean I think Wales reported at the end of October that every excess death in their land in that week was due to Covid. Imagine that. Every other disease cured.
I've stopped really posting because this is your pulpit by the looks and you promulgate your half truths and made up views to the flock. Hopefully they've got the brains to see through it all. I'll chip in every now and then when i see some absolute bollocks though like this post.