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+--- Thread: UK Covid death toll (/showthread.php?tid=10162)
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RE: UK Covid death toll - Derek Hardballs - 11-01-2020
(11-01-2020, 12:18 PM)billybassett Wrote: Mike Yeadon former Chief Scientific Officer at Pfizer for many years in immunology and virus.
Studied with Vallance I think from the same text book.
Absolutely completely spot on . No crackpot, Just a man with 35 years experience in the very thing we are dealing with
Or... pick the science that best fits what you want to believe and want to happen. That’s where we are now picking and choosing the science we want to believe.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Brentbaggie - 11-01-2020
Yeah, and yet Christian Drosten, Germany's top Virologist, Anders Tegnell, Sweden's top Virologist, Guidon Vanham, a top Belgian Immunology and Disease control expert, Shao Yiming, one of China's leading disease control experts …. (shall I go on) all differ from him in how Covid 19 should be dealt with. You can't just pick the expert you agree with and say he's right. I don't know if he's right, but I do know most other 'experts' disagree with his idea of what should be done.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Tom Joad - 11-01-2020
Derek Hardballs Wrote:billybassett Wrote:Mike Yeadon former Chief Scientific Officer at Pfizer for many years in immunology and virus.
Studied with Vallance I think from the same text book.
Absolutely completely spot on . No crackpot, Just a man with 35 years experience in the very thing we are dealing with
Or... pick the science that best fits what you want to believe and want to happen. That’s where we are now picking and choosing the science we want to believe.
No doubt. But what of those of us that genuinely don't know who to believe? I just want one question answered, what will happen to the numbers in hospital should we not lockdown? I really don't believe we can go on locking up forever. we need to find a way to live with this thing.
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 11-01-2020
The data shows that the hospital numbers are going up based on the last 6 weeks Tom and it is reasonable to think that without doing anything those numbers will keep increasing.
The 'no excess deaths since June' line that I keep hearing being repeated is correct if you compare with 2019 but incorrect if you compare with the 5 year average, either way it is negligible but you have to take into account the high death rate we had earlier in the year will mean that a number of people that would have died now have already died. Basically we are running at normal figures now even with and increase of 15% earlier in the year. And also it is only up to the 16th October, it doesn't include the couple of weeks since as we don't have that data yet (we will have the week ended 23rd October on Tuesday). And crucially those two weeks are the ones with the higher hospitalisations.
The flu season of 2000 and 2009 figures were all winter figures, we need to be careful because we haven't been through a winter with covid yet, making predictions that it won't impact on excess deaths during the normal flu season is premature at best.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Tom Joad - 11-01-2020
baggy1 Wrote:The data shows that the hospital numbers are going up based on the last 6 weeks Tom and it is reasonable to think that without doing anything those numbers will keep increasing.
The 'no excess deaths since June' line that I keep hearing being repeated is correct if you compare with 2019 but incorrect if you compare with the 5 year average, either way it is negligible but you have to take into account the high death rate we had earlier in the year will mean that a number of people that would have died now have already died. Basically we are running at normal figures now even with and increase of 15% earlier in the year. And also it is only up to the 16th October, it doesn't include the couple of weeks since as we don't have that data yet (we will have the week ended 23rd October on Tuesday). And crucially those two weeks are the ones with the higher hospitalisations.
The flu season of 2000 and 2009 figures were all winter figures, we need to be careful because we haven't been through a winter with covid yet, making predictions that it won't impact on excess deaths during the normal flu season is premature at best.
Great facting, as ever Baggie1. That's my fear, hospitals over run. My other fear right now is that we we'll be no better off after a lockdown as the schools and universities will keep the spread high. We cannot lock down forever, whether full on or in stages. We absolutely need to find a way to live with this. That is the big issue.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Derek Hardballs - 11-01-2020
(11-01-2020, 01:07 PM)Tom Joad Wrote:baggy1 Wrote:The data shows that the hospital numbers are going up based on the last 6 weeks Tom and it is reasonable to think that without doing anything those numbers will keep increasing.
The 'no excess deaths since June' line that I keep hearing being repeated is correct if you compare with 2019 but incorrect if you compare with the 5 year average, either way it is negligible but you have to take into account the high death rate we had earlier in the year will mean that a number of people that would have died now have already died. Basically we are running at normal figures now even with and increase of 15% earlier in the year. And also it is only up to the 16th October, it doesn't include the couple of weeks since as we don't have that data yet (we will have the week ended 23rd October on Tuesday). And crucially those two weeks are the ones with the higher hospitalisations.
The flu season of 2000 and 2009 figures were all winter figures, we need to be careful because we haven't been through a winter with covid yet, making predictions that it won't impact on excess deaths during the normal flu season is premature at best.
Great facting, as ever Baggie1. That's my fear, hospitals over run. My other fear right now is that we we'll be no better off after a lockdown as the schools and universities will keep the spread high. We cannot lock down forever, whether full on or in stages. We absolutely need to find a way to live with this. That is the big issue.
That was where fast, accurate and efficient track and trace was meant to be the answer... we aren’t great at whackamole it seems.
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 11-01-2020
Agree entirely Tom, there should be a toolbox of options including an effective track and trace system and lockdown should only be used as the last resort. It looks like it’s being used as the only resort.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Tom Joad - 11-01-2020
baggy1 Wrote:Agree entirely Tom, there should be a toolbox of options including an effective track and trace system and lockdown should only be used as the last resort. It looks like it’s being used as the only resort.
Originally many cut the government some slack as we were in unknown territory. By now they should have been given all the advice they need to come up with a clear, least damage, plan with an exit route, all the while leading by example. To say that isn't what is happening would be a huge understatement.
RE: UK Covid death toll - billybassett - 11-01-2020
No doubt the hospitals are under pressure in some parts of the country. Certainly not all.
Much like they were last year and actually in a recent year there was a media shit storm about patients in corridors. It's a good Tory ploy to divert the issues about general NHS issues by making it all about Covid last year.
A bit like the PR management last night where they told us 4pm and then strung it out until right before strictly when all the silver surfers and certain demographic will be waiting tongues out for the absolute bullshit. I mean did you see how fast they ran through the slides , because the data doesn't match the message.
No excess deaths since June, a seasonal flu season being tested as Covid. No reasonable analysis of what the cost of all this is long term. If anyone is seriously saying protect the NHS at all costs then welcome to the hell of 2021-2030. Wouldn't surprise me next year if the currency isnt devalued not just here but across the world.
I suggest you write to your.MP with the facts and try to encourage them.to vote against this nonsense.
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 11-01-2020
There are no facts in what you are saying there Billy, just speculation and interpretation. You are gambling on a theory that covid isn’t going to impact on the country in the way that it did earlier in the year. And as much as I dislike the government I don’t think they are blaming last years NHS problems on covid.