(10-27-2020, 10:12 AM)baggy1 Wrote: Week 42 (w/e 16th Oct) figures are now out and again some mixed messages. The total number of deaths in E&W for the week compared with the 5YA is up by about 650 and against 2020 is up about 400, so neither of those are significant but both higher than normal. 

However based on the number of hospitalisations in England as at the 16th (4,647) and the equivalent time in the 1st wave (26th March had 5,045) the number of excess deaths vs the 5YA are slightly down (1,011 in Wk 13 vs 669 in Wk 42) but following a pattern - there is a slower rate of growth in hospitalisations this time and a lessor excess death rate but both are rising.

Next weeks figures will be a huge comparison because wk 14 in the 1st wave is where it really started to take off (6k excess deaths in wk 14 compared with 1k in wk 13).

Hospitalisations also continue to rise with 7.5k in England with slightly less than 10% of those on ventilators (both as of yesterday). The rates of growth are still at around 1.5 and if we get to the end of the week with around 10k in hospital that will show continued growth at those rates.

Some big weeks worth of data coming up. Buckle in and keep safe folks.

(10-28-2020, 09:09 AM)baggy1 Wrote: You can't just look at excess deaths and think that they correlate exactly on a year to year basis for the location and then conclude something, that is just mad

(10-28-2020, 09:57 AM)baggy1 Wrote: If you don't realise it's a pandemic not an endemic to start with then you really are towing the conspiracy theory line. This is nothing like the flu, we've had 60k excess deaths so far this year, no flu season has even come close to that and we have only had this in the spring / summer months, we haven't even got to winter. We are still learning about this and you have written it off as a bad flu season, nothing to see here - that is real conspiracy theory shit. Earlier on in the year someone on here was saying, it will even out over the year, people are just dying early - madness.

And the lockdown is a short break to stop the increasing hospital admissions, it isn't a long term, no end in sight lockdown.

• AN EPIDEMIC is a disease that affects a large number of people within a community, population, or region.
  
  
• A PANDEMIC is an epidemic that’s spread over multiple countries or continents.
  
  
• ENDEMIC is something that belongs to a particular people or country.
  
  
• AN OUTBREAK is a greater-than-anticipated increase in the number of endemic cases. It can also be a single case in a new area. If it’s not quickly controlled, an outbreak can become an epidemic.
  

(10-28-2020, 10:19 AM)billybassett Wrote:

(10-28-2020, 09:57 AM)baggy1 Wrote: If you don't realise it's a pandemic not an endemic to start with then you really are towing the conspiracy theory line. This is nothing like the flu, we've had 60k excess deaths so far this year, no flu season has even come close to that and we have only had this in the spring / summer months, we haven't even got to winter. We are still learning about this and you have written it off as a bad flu season, nothing to see here - that is real conspiracy theory shit. Earlier on in the year someone on here was saying, it will even out over the year, people are just dying early - madness.

And the lockdown is a short break to stop the increasing hospital admissions, it isn't a long term, no end in sight lockdown.

I'm not towing the conspiracy line - stop being naughty - trying to dismiss me as some crank FFS. I could easily same the reverse of you - sheep, dim witted and taken in - but I know you're not you're genuinely trying to understand what's going on.

It's not a pandemic baggy. In March they thought it was because the data from Italy and China initially showed 3% mortality because of the very specific conditions at that time. I'll say it again for you mortality rate is now in the region 0.12-0.2% as per respected Ionanndis (Stanford WHO). And if you really believe every one of those covid deaths was specifically a death due to specifically to covid - given how they were/weren't tested, comorbidities, coroner rules and the length of time of declaration then I'm afraid you are not looking closely enough. All very tragic yes.

But I'm not going to sit by whilst people posit half or mis truths about this.

It's pretty much exactly like the 4 seasonal corona viruses that are in circulation (80% genome the exact same). Hence why people can be tested +v and asymptomatic because of their auto immune memory response.

It's also why we see no affect to lockdowns because it's endemic.

And if I hear any more about protecting hospitals and admissions I'll scream. I don't remember a post on here last November when admissions were higher across the country.

One thing I can guarantee is a wall of silence next year when cancers, cardiac, mental health issues are all rising and young people's prospects are flushed away down the toilet.

(10-28-2020, 10:32 AM)baggy1 Wrote: https://intermountainhealthcare.org/blogs/topics/live-well/2020/04/whats-the-difference-between-a-pandemic-an-epidemic-endemic-and-an-outbreak/

Of course it's a bleeding pandemic, it's the most pandemic of the pandemics we have had in a century:



Let’s start with basic definitions:

• AN EPIDEMIC is a disease that affects a large number of people within a community, population, or region.
  
  
• A PANDEMIC is an epidemic that’s spread over multiple countries or continents.
  
  
• ENDEMIC is something that belongs to a particular people or country.
  
  
• AN OUTBREAK is a greater-than-anticipated increase in the number of endemic cases. It can also be a single case in a new area. If it’s not quickly controlled, an outbreak can become an epidemic.
  

(10-28-2020, 10:53 AM)Derek Hardballs Wrote:

(10-28-2020, 10:19 AM)billybassett Wrote:

(10-28-2020, 09:57 AM)baggy1 Wrote: If you don't realise it's a pandemic not an endemic to start with then you really are towing the conspiracy theory line. This is nothing like the flu, we've had 60k excess deaths so far this year, no flu season has even come close to that and we have only had this in the spring / summer months, we haven't even got to winter. We are still learning about this and you have written it off as a bad flu season, nothing to see here - that is real conspiracy theory shit. Earlier on in the year someone on here was saying, it will even out over the year, people are just dying early - madness.

And the lockdown is a short break to stop the increasing hospital admissions, it isn't a long term, no end in sight lockdown.

I'm not towing the conspiracy line - stop being naughty - trying to dismiss me as some crank FFS. I could easily same the reverse of you - sheep, dim witted and taken in - but I know you're not you're genuinely trying to understand what's going on.

It's not a pandemic baggy. In March they thought it was because the data from Italy and China initially showed 3% mortality because of the very specific conditions at that time. I'll say it again for you mortality rate is now in the region 0.12-0.2% as per respected Ionanndis (Stanford WHO). And if you really believe every one of those covid deaths was specifically a death due to specifically to covid - given how they were/weren't tested, comorbidities, coroner rules and the length of time of declaration then I'm afraid you are not looking closely enough. All very tragic yes.

But I'm not going to sit by whilst people posit half or mis truths about this.

It's pretty much exactly like the 4 seasonal corona viruses that are in circulation (80% genome the exact same). Hence why people can be tested +v and asymptomatic because of their auto immune memory response.

It's also why we see no affect to lockdowns because it's endemic.

And if I hear any more about protecting hospitals and admissions I'll scream. I don't remember a post on here last November when admissions were higher across the country.

One thing I can guarantee is a wall of silence next year when cancers, cardiac, mental health issues are all rising and young people's prospects are flushed away down the toilet.

I’m pretty sure I mentioned the lack of capacity within the NHS last year to cope during the winter. You might have missed it but I’ve been quite critical of the last decade of Conservative governance.  

Also you don’t see a link between social distancing measures and a lower than average flu season? By now I would normally expect to have had two or three colds I’ve had none because I’m working from home and not meeting hundreds of people.

(10-28-2020, 11:42 AM)billybassett Wrote:

(10-28-2020, 10:32 AM)baggy1 Wrote: https://intermountainhealthcare.org/blogs/topics/live-well/2020/04/whats-the-difference-between-a-pandemic-an-epidemic-endemic-and-an-outbreak/

Of course it's a bleeding pandemic, it's the most pandemic of the pandemics we have had in a century:



Let’s start with basic definitions:

• AN EPIDEMIC is a disease that affects a large number of people within a community, population, or region.
  
  
• A PANDEMIC is an epidemic that’s spread over multiple countries or continents.
  
  
• ENDEMIC is something that belongs to a particular people or country.
  
  
• AN OUTBREAK is a greater-than-anticipated increase in the number of endemic cases. It can also be a single case in a new area. If it’s not quickly controlled, an outbreak can become an epidemic.
  

So influenza is a pandemic then every year.

---

(10-28-2020, 10:53 AM)Derek Hardballs Wrote:

(10-28-2020, 10:19 AM)billybassett Wrote:

(10-28-2020, 09:57 AM)baggy1 Wrote: If you don't realise it's a pandemic not an endemic to start with then you really are towing the conspiracy theory line. This is nothing like the flu, we've had 60k excess deaths so far this year, no flu season has even come close to that and we have only had this in the spring / summer months, we haven't even got to winter. We are still learning about this and you have written it off as a bad flu season, nothing to see here - that is real conspiracy theory shit. Earlier on in the year someone on here was saying, it will even out over the year, people are just dying early - madness.

And the lockdown is a short break to stop the increasing hospital admissions, it isn't a long term, no end in sight lockdown.

I'm not towing the conspiracy line - stop being naughty - trying to dismiss me as some crank FFS. I could easily same the reverse of you - sheep, dim witted and taken in - but I know you're not you're genuinely trying to understand what's going on.

It's not a pandemic baggy. In March they thought it was because the data from Italy and China initially showed 3% mortality because of the very specific conditions at that time. I'll say it again for you mortality rate is now in the region 0.12-0.2% as per respected Ionanndis (Stanford WHO). And if you really believe every one of those covid deaths was specifically a death due to specifically to covid - given how they were/weren't tested, comorbidities, coroner rules and the length of time of declaration then I'm afraid you are not looking closely enough. All very tragic yes.

But I'm not going to sit by whilst people posit half or mis truths about this.

It's pretty much exactly like the 4 seasonal corona viruses that are in circulation (80% genome the exact same). Hence why people can be tested +v and asymptomatic because of their auto immune memory response.

It's also why we see no affect to lockdowns because it's endemic.

And if I hear any more about protecting hospitals and admissions I'll scream. I don't remember a post on here last November when admissions were higher across the country.

One thing I can guarantee is a wall of silence next year when cancers, cardiac, mental health issues are all rising and young people's prospects are flushed away down the toilet.

I’m pretty sure I mentioned the lack of capacity within the NHS last year to cope during the winter. You might have missed it but I’ve been quite critical of the last decade of Conservative governance.  

Also you don’t see a link between social distancing measures and a lower than average flu season? By now I would normally expect to have had two or three colds I’ve had none because I’m working from home and not meeting hundreds of people.

I really would ask you to reread what you've written. Think about it. If respiratory illnesses were significantly limited by the measures we've put in place there would be overall a drop in respiratory illnesses as a total. We have currently a similar number of respiratory illness admissions to hospital as we have done as an average over the past 5 years. The difference is some are branded flu and some are branded covid. Both are basically the same covid=flu.

Thus the measures you've described are actually making no difference whatsoever other than kill jobs and other people via other illnesses.