(10-16-2020, 10:46 AM)baggy1 Wrote:

(10-09-2020, 02:54 PM)baggy1 Wrote: Another Friday and another increase in numbers; 3,044 now in hospital in England compared to 1,995 a week ago and 368 of those on ventilators compared with 285 this time last week so basically 1.5 times increase in a week of those in hospital which was the same for the week before (23rd - 1,381) and the week before that (16th - 894). If we continue like that then we will have issues. On the same curve of the last 4 weeks that gives us 4.5k next week, 6.75k the week after and 10k by the end of the month.

This is where I don't envy any decision makers. The increases from what I read is in the University cities which gives a good indication where the problem lies. I can see the logic in closing pubs but wholesale seems a bit of a blanket approach. and as for closing restaurants as well - that doesn't make much sense, however the places I will visit are well looked after and apply the rules strictly, I imagine there are a number that don't follow that rule always.

We really have managed to fuck this up royally with have a test and trace system that is next to useless. Locking down late in the 1st place was an error that we can argue about til the cows come home but once that happened, to not have a recovery plan to install a tacking system is criminal.

Time to be careful folks - I know it's the last thing we need but it looks like we are going to have to go out less and minimise the life we wanted again.

I thought it worth quoting last weeks figures based on the fact that we are not far off those projected figures this week. The number of people in hospital in England as of yesterday is 4,379 which keeps us on the path to having 10k in hospital by the end of the month. We are definitely following the curve of 1.5x increase each week now for a 5 week period.

Numbers on ventilators are also up to 482, up 114 on last week (x1.3 increase)

This adds to the call for the circuit breaker as unfortunately there is nothing else that can be used. It is tragic that we are this far into the pandemic and only have one effective option left.

(10-16-2020, 10:56 AM)baggy1 Wrote: Sorry BB, not certain, to keep it simple I am saying that the figures are increasing by 50% each week (week on week)

16th - 894; 23rd - 1,381; 30th - 1,995; 8th - 3,044; and yesterday - 4,379.

(10-16-2020, 10:46 AM)baggy1 Wrote:

(10-09-2020, 02:54 PM)baggy1 Wrote: Another Friday and another increase in numbers; 3,044 now in hospital in England compared to 1,995 a week ago and 368 of those on ventilators compared with 285 this time last week so basically 1.5 times increase in a week of those in hospital which was the same for the week before (23rd - 1,381) and the week before that (16th - 894). If we continue like that then we will have issues. On the same curve of the last 4 weeks that gives us 4.5k next week, 6.75k the week after and 10k by the end of the month.

This is where I don't envy any decision makers. The increases from what I read is in the University cities which gives a good indication where the problem lies. I can see the logic in closing pubs but wholesale seems a bit of a blanket approach. and as for closing restaurants as well - that doesn't make much sense, however the places I will visit are well looked after and apply the rules strictly, I imagine there are a number that don't follow that rule always.

We really have managed to fuck this up royally with have a test and trace system that is next to useless. Locking down late in the 1st place was an error that we can argue about til the cows come home but once that happened, to not have a recovery plan to install a tacking system is criminal.

Time to be careful folks - I know it's the last thing we need but it looks like we are going to have to go out less and minimise the life we wanted again.

I thought it worth quoting last weeks figures based on the fact that we are not far off those projected figures this week. The number of people in hospital in England as of yesterday is 4,379 which keeps us on the path to having 10k in hospital by the end of the month. We are definitely following the curve of 1.5x increase each week now for a 5 week period.

Numbers on ventilators are also up to 482, up 114 on last week (x1.3 increase)

This adds to the call for the circuit breaker as unfortunately there is nothing else that can be used. It is tragic that we are this far into the pandemic and only have one effective option left.

(10-16-2020, 11:27 AM)billybassett Wrote: For the love of god I really hope not. You'll be killing so many more people that the ones you think you're saving.

The rising number of cases and deaths is proceeding 4x more slowly now than in the spring. Whilst this means in some areas it will continue to rise in others it will not. Plus if they keep adding in the 28% of people who catch covid when they're in hospital (they go in with non-covid issues). Plus the death rate is much much lower.

(10-16-2020, 11:32 AM)baggy1 Wrote:

(10-16-2020, 11:27 AM)billybassett Wrote: For the love of god I really hope not. You'll be killing so many more people that the ones you think you're saving.

The rising number of cases and deaths is proceeding 4x more slowly now than in the spring. Whilst this means in some areas it will continue to rise in others it will not. Plus if they keep adding in the 28% of people who catch covid when they're in hospital (they go in with non-covid issues). Plus the death rate is much much lower.

Based on pure numbers carrying on for the next 2 weeks in the way they have for the last 5 weeks we will have 10k in hospital by the end of the month. I agree it isn't increasing as fast as the spring which is good, but the maximum number in hospital in England in the spring was just over 17k. If we carry on without changing and the numbers increase in the same way then we will reach that figure in a month.

What is the alternative?

(10-16-2020, 11:32 AM)baggy1 Wrote:

(10-16-2020, 11:27 AM)billybassett Wrote: For the love of god I really hope not. You'll be killing so many more people that the ones you think you're saving.

The rising number of cases and deaths is proceeding 4x more slowly now than in the spring. Whilst this means in some areas it will continue to rise in others it will not. Plus if they keep adding in the 28% of people who catch covid when they're in hospital (they go in with non-covid issues). Plus the death rate is much much lower.

Based on pure numbers carrying on for the next 2 weeks in the way they have for the last 5 weeks we will have 10k in hospital by the end of the month. I agree it isn't increasing as fast as the spring which is good, but the maximum number in hospital in England in the spring was just over 17k. If we carry on without changing and the numbers increase in the same way then we will reach that figure in a month.

What is the alternative?

(10-16-2020, 11:55 AM)billybassett Wrote:

(10-16-2020, 11:32 AM)baggy1 Wrote:

(10-16-2020, 11:27 AM)billybassett Wrote: For the love of god I really hope not. You'll be killing so many more people that the ones you think you're saving.

The rising number of cases and deaths is proceeding 4x more slowly now than in the spring. Whilst this means in some areas it will continue to rise in others it will not. Plus if they keep adding in the 28% of people who catch covid when they're in hospital (they go in with non-covid issues). Plus the death rate is much much lower.

Based on pure numbers carrying on for the next 2 weeks in the way they have for the last 5 weeks we will have 10k in hospital by the end of the month. I agree it isn't increasing as fast as the spring which is good, but the maximum number in hospital in England in the spring was just over 17k. If we carry on without changing and the numbers increase in the same way then we will reach that figure in a month.

What is the alternative?

We could have that many in hospital by the end of the month. I very much doubt it mind as the curves of other nations ahead of us are already flattening. You're also equating the spring with now which is basically apples and pears. The classification of covid patients, the treatments, the demographic profile of those being admitted, those nosocomial admissions, influenza tested as covid (see PCR test fallacy) and mainly the current nationwide susceptibility rate which is falling.

I mean this is where SAGE need to be shot or charged with manslaughter. The models they used started from a point that it was a completely new virus and  0% base of the population have initial immunity. Absolutely bonkers. So they predicted that 90+% were susceptible. Pity they didn't have a clinical immunologist helping build the model as opposed to a maths/physicist because as anyone working in respiratory immunology would have told them covid has 70%+ same sequencing of a range of other covid variants we've had as flu over recent years: OC43, HKU1, 229E and NL63. Thus roughly 3 in every 10 people would already have had T-cells able to provide immunity to covid and thus the modelling of future susceptible people/thus cases from ZERO is/was a mile off.

How does that relate to your numbers? If there's already 30% immune, and if we use the WHO 0.2% Infection rate mortality index to determine infections to date then that would take care of another 30% of the population. If you were then to take account of the young and maybe very comorbid then that probably only leaves 20-30% of the population left to infect. Thus we will see numbers flatten over the next few weeks.

And tbh even if they did rise higher than that we should still definitely not lockdown -see my previous post to Shabby

(10-16-2020, 01:02 PM)baggy1 Wrote:

(10-16-2020, 11:55 AM)billybassett Wrote:

(10-16-2020, 11:32 AM)baggy1 Wrote:

(10-16-2020, 11:27 AM)billybassett Wrote: For the love of god I really hope not. You'll be killing so many more people that the ones you think you're saving.

The rising number of cases and deaths is proceeding 4x more slowly now than in the spring. Whilst this means in some areas it will continue to rise in others it will not. Plus if they keep adding in the 28% of people who catch covid when they're in hospital (they go in with non-covid issues). Plus the death rate is much much lower.

Based on pure numbers carrying on for the next 2 weeks in the way they have for the last 5 weeks we will have 10k in hospital by the end of the month. I agree it isn't increasing as fast as the spring which is good, but the maximum number in hospital in England in the spring was just over 17k. If we carry on without changing and the numbers increase in the same way then we will reach that figure in a month.

What is the alternative?

We could have that many in hospital by the end of the month. I very much doubt it mind as the curves of other nations ahead of us are already flattening. You're also equating the spring with now which is basically apples and pears. The classification of covid patients, the treatments, the demographic profile of those being admitted, those nosocomial admissions, influenza tested as covid (see PCR test fallacy) and mainly the current nationwide susceptibility rate which is falling.

I mean this is where SAGE need to be shot or charged with manslaughter. The models they used started from a point that it was a completely new virus and  0% base of the population have initial immunity. Absolutely bonkers. So they predicted that 90+% were susceptible. Pity they didn't have a clinical immunologist helping build the model as opposed to a maths/physicist because as anyone working in respiratory immunology would have told them covid has 70%+ same sequencing of a range of other covid variants we've had as flu over recent years: OC43, HKU1, 229E and NL63. Thus roughly 3 in every 10 people would already have had T-cells able to provide immunity to covid and thus the modelling of future susceptible people/thus cases from ZERO is/was a mile off.

How does that relate to your numbers? If there's already 30% immune, and if we use the WHO 0.2% Infection rate mortality index to determine infections to date then that would take care of another 30% of the population. If you were then to take account of the young and maybe very comorbid then that probably only leaves 20-30% of the population left to infect. Thus we will see numbers flatten over the next few weeks.

And tbh even if they did rise higher than that we should still definitely not lockdown -see my previous post to Shabby

OK, I'm not disagreeing with anything you say because, let's be honest, none of us are experts, but what happens if next week we are are the 6.75k figure following the pattern for the previous few weeks, do we lock down then? I'm taking a simple approach to a complex subject but the numbers are increasing in a steady pattern from the beginning of September, but you expect that to flatten out based on we'll follow the same pattern as other european countries.

Trust me, I don't want to lockdown and can see the damage that would cause, but if our hospitals fill up again then they will close to all other non-covid treatments. What pisses me off is that they had one job which was to get an effective track and trace system in place, with that we could have identified these problems early and dealt with them better - I'm not talking about locking down the whole of Birmingham, i'm talking about locking down smaller areas, postcodes, streets or even buildings to stop the spread. We're currently that shit at doing this we are locking down a country whilst letting everyone get on as normal basically and wondering why it isn't working.