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+--- Thread: UK Covid death toll (/showthread.php?tid=10162)
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RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 05-13-2020
Strange one Pneumann - like you say you would expect a country with a tenth of the population to have a tenth of the infection and ultimately death rates when in fact it is currently running at a hundredth.
Complete guessing here but whereas the major cities in Denmark are built up they still have much less population (Copenhagen central has about 700k compared with London's 10 mil) and they are spread out as well which will provide a natural barrier to stop the virus travelling. The population make ups are very similar with about 18% of each population being over 65.
I would guess that part of it will have been the lock down and Denmark not having as much influx from other parts of the world than London. And once in London it is very easy to move around unhindered. Plus, having visited Denmark once a very long time ago it is fucking cold in Springtime so maybe that has restricted people from getting out and mixing with others.
500 is a fantastic figure compared to nearly 50,000 over here. Like you say there will be a lot to learn over time about all of this and potentially will change the way we live for ever.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Squid - 05-13-2020
(05-13-2020, 06:30 AM)Pneumann Wrote: Don't know if this is the right place for this comment, and hope it doesn't become too partisan.
Where I live (DK), corona deaths are at a little more than 500, compared to the UK's 40+,0000. Accounting for the fact that the DK population is under six million (the UK is over 60 million), our death rate in proportion to population is ten times lower than the UK (per 100,000), and, significantly, several times lower than Sweden.
Though population density is much lower per km2, most people live in or around major cities, and with a lot in five or six story apartments. I don't think population density is the leading factor as people everywhere are mostly concentrated in urban/suburban areas.
Policy differences in the UK and Denmark included a week or so's difference in the implementation of lock-down measures. Ours predated yours; that may be a factor, but tenfold? And our restrictions have not ended up being as strict as yours.
Homes for the elderly are often provided by the local authorities here, and as a consequence, run on a not-for-profit basis and are strictly regulated with a large degree of trained staff. That might explain some differences in the rate of deaths among the elderly.
Test rates might also make a difference. I don't have those figures at hand, but certainly not more than double as many tests per citizen in DK of that in UK
Cultural differences, in relation to distance from power and trust in authority may also play in. We tend to believe experts and to have a higher degree of social cohesion than in the UK. You're more anarchic, which can both be refreshing and lethal.
That still leaves me wondering if there's something else going on. While a stitch in time might explain some differences, are there any medical bods out there that can explain the differential?
I would be looking at how COVID deaths are categorised and recorded, particularly in care homes. Looking at last year's death rates in Denmark compared to this year's may be insightful.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Babel - 05-14-2020
(05-13-2020, 02:58 PM)Squid Wrote:(05-13-2020, 06:30 AM)Pneumann Wrote: Don't know if this is the right place for this comment, and hope it doesn't become too partisan.
Where I live (DK), corona deaths are at a little more than 500, compared to the UK's 40+,0000. Accounting for the fact that the DK population is under six million (the UK is over 60 million), our death rate in proportion to population is ten times lower than the UK (per 100,000), and, significantly, several times lower than Sweden.
Though population density is much lower per km2, most people live in or around major cities, and with a lot in five or six story apartments. I don't think population density is the leading factor as people everywhere are mostly concentrated in urban/suburban areas.
Policy differences in the UK and Denmark included a week or so's difference in the implementation of lock-down measures. Ours predated yours; that may be a factor, but tenfold? And our restrictions have not ended up being as strict as yours.
Homes for the elderly are often provided by the local authorities here, and as a consequence, run on a not-for-profit basis and are strictly regulated with a large degree of trained staff. That might explain some differences in the rate of deaths among the elderly.
Test rates might also make a difference. I don't have those figures at hand, but certainly not more than double as many tests per citizen in DK of that in UK
Cultural differences, in relation to distance from power and trust in authority may also play in. We tend to believe experts and to have a higher degree of social cohesion than in the UK. You're more anarchic, which can both be refreshing and lethal.
That still leaves me wondering if there's something else going on. While a stitch in time might explain some differences, are there any medical bods out there that can explain the differential?
I would be looking at how COVID deaths are categorised and recorded, particularly in care homes. Looking at last year's death rates in Denmark compared to this year's may be insightful.
Thanks, Baggy1, and Squid. Seems like the day-to-day mortality this year is marginally higher than last year overall (some deaths prevented by distancing, while others caused by corona equaling each other out). But still doesn't explain difference. Stats here usually reliable.
RE: UK Covid death toll - chasetownbaggie - 05-19-2020
Latest ONS data available, up to and including w/e 8th May. COVID19 deaths in England and Wales 10 days ago up to 39,018.Over 3k in Scotland.
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 05-19-2020
(05-19-2020, 02:47 PM)chasetownbaggie Wrote: Latest ONS data available, up to and including w/e 8th May. COVID19 deaths in England and Wales 10 days ago up to 39,018.Over 3k in Scotland.
The year on year data show for England and Wales that there are 54,000 extra deaths this year than last. The 39k figure is just the death certs that refer to covid-19. Can you think of any other reason for the extra 15k above your figure?
RE: UK Covid death toll - Protheroe - 05-20-2020
(05-19-2020, 03:07 PM)baggy1 Wrote:(05-19-2020, 02:47 PM)chasetownbaggie Wrote: Latest ONS data available, up to and including w/e 8th May. COVID19 deaths in England and Wales 10 days ago up to 39,018.Over 3k in Scotland.
The year on year data show for England and Wales that there are 54,000 extra deaths this year than last. The 39k figure is just the death certs that refer to covid-19. Can you think of any other reason for the extra 15k above your figure?
Lack of hospital care for other chronic and acute conditions must be up there.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52722150
Given my mother went into the Marie Curie hospice yesterday, this is quite close to the bone for me. I fear thousands more premature deaths as a result of 'saving' the NHS.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Shabby Russian - 05-20-2020
(05-20-2020, 09:30 AM)Protheroe Wrote:(05-19-2020, 03:07 PM)baggy1 Wrote:(05-19-2020, 02:47 PM)chasetownbaggie Wrote: Latest ONS data available, up to and including w/e 8th May. COVID19 deaths in England and Wales 10 days ago up to 39,018.Over 3k in Scotland.
The year on year data show for England and Wales that there are 54,000 extra deaths this year than last. The 39k figure is just the death certs that refer to covid-19. Can you think of any other reason for the extra 15k above your figure?
Lack of hospital care for other chronic and acute conditions must be up there.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52722150
Given my mother went into the Marie Curie hospice yesterday, this is quite close to the bone for me. I fear thousands more premature deaths as a result of 'saving' the NHS.
It would be a factor but unlikely to be the main reason for an increase in 'non covid' deaths this year. Far more likely is that majority of the 15k extra deaths is where people have died from covid 19, but it was never confirmed.
RE: UK Covid death toll - The liquidator - 05-20-2020
(05-20-2020, 09:30 AM)Protheroe Wrote:(05-19-2020, 03:07 PM)baggy1 Wrote:(05-19-2020, 02:47 PM)chasetownbaggie Wrote: Latest ONS data available, up to and including w/e 8th May. COVID19 deaths in England and Wales 10 days ago up to 39,018.Over 3k in Scotland.
The year on year data show for England and Wales that there are 54,000 extra deaths this year than last. The 39k figure is just the death certs that refer to covid-19. Can you think of any other reason for the extra 15k above your figure?
Lack of hospital care for other chronic and acute conditions must be up there.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52722150
Given my mother went into the Marie Curie hospice yesterday, this is quite close to the bone for me. I fear thousands more premature deaths as a result of 'saving' the NHS.
So sorry proth
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 05-20-2020
(05-20-2020, 09:30 AM)Protheroe Wrote:(05-19-2020, 03:07 PM)baggy1 Wrote:(05-19-2020, 02:47 PM)chasetownbaggie Wrote: Latest ONS data available, up to and including w/e 8th May. COVID19 deaths in England and Wales 10 days ago up to 39,018.Over 3k in Scotland.
The year on year data show for England and Wales that there are 54,000 extra deaths this year than last. The 39k figure is just the death certs that refer to covid-19. Can you think of any other reason for the extra 15k above your figure?
Lack of hospital care for other chronic and acute conditions must be up there.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52722150
Given my mother went into the Marie Curie hospice yesterday, this is quite close to the bone for me. I fear thousands more premature deaths as a result of 'saving' the NHS.
Sorry to hear about your mom Proth.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Protheroe - 05-20-2020
Thanks guys, it's been a long time coming and so we're hardly unprepared. She's comfortable which is the most important thing.