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+--- Thread: UK Covid death toll (/showthread.php?tid=10162)
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RE: UK Covid death toll - Birdman1811 - 12-16-2021
Just a note on how the stats are derived.
A lot of the data comes from home LFT tests, with many not getting PCR tests, and simply isolating after a positive LFR. Part of the number is also derived from the amount of tests done divided by amount of negative amd positive tests. So if people don't report negative LFT's, the number, and r rate increases in the statistics.
Please, please report all tests you do to the NHS, so the data is more accurate.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Derek Hardballs - 12-16-2021
(12-16-2021, 11:37 AM)FenlandBoing Wrote: I should think numbers in hospital will spike considerably in London if stats saying a third of Londoners have had no vaccination yet! Is that really true?
Public Health spokesman for Sandwell
“Last week, COVID admissions in London rose by nearly 40% on the previous week.
This week they have already seen a doubling of daily case rates.
This is now a serious situation and will spread to the West Midlands very soon.”
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 12-16-2021
(12-16-2021, 12:04 PM)baggiebuckster Wrote:(12-16-2021, 11:48 AM)baggy1 Wrote:(12-16-2021, 11:34 AM)baggiebuckster Wrote:(12-16-2021, 10:04 AM)baggy1 Wrote:I made no reference to the events of the last 12 months. I was purely referencing Omicron and the comments made by Whitty about this particular variant.(12-15-2021, 07:30 PM)baggiebuckster Wrote: How can Whitty explain away the potential milder effects of Omicron due to a higher level of immunity in SA?
They have 25% jabbed compared to our 80% so by that logic it implies that natural immunity is the driving factor and therefore better than vaccine induced immunity.
Or that it's summer over there and they have a younger population. Can we please stop trying to play down the importance of the vaccines when we saw what 12 months was like without them (110k excess deaths) compared to this year (60k to week 48). And those figures are heavily countered by the lockdowns we had to endure and the knock on affect of those lockdowns to businesses and lives, and also the strain on the NHS because of the wards full of covid patients which impacted on all other procedures and the knock on affect that will have on health going forward.
It is simply foolish to consider that we could be in any better situation without the ongoing requirements for getting jabbed.
You were directly referencing the past 20 months by suggesting that natural (herd) immunity is better than vaccine immunity.
You are also comparing what is happening in South Africa with what is happening here despite:And your conclusion is that it must be down to natural immunity. It's probably a bit more nuanced than that if I'm honest.
- It being summer over there;
- They have a smaller population spread over 5 times the area
- The median age in SA is 28, compared to 41 in the UK
- The largest city over there has a population of 3M, compared to London's 7M
Half of those facts are irrelevant. He was clearly referencing the level of severity of disease in people that caught Omicron - not how many caught it in the first place. The only factor in your list that may be an influencer on severity is the age factor.
So the implication from Whitty was that people who caught Omicron didn't suffer too badly due to prior immunity which can't all have been from the vaccine.
As much as you accuse me of trying to ignore/manipulate facts/opinions etc you are in danger of placing these vaccines on a pedestal when this variant has clearly changed the landscape. Let's be honest nobody (you included) have a clue if this mass rollout of boosters is going to make a huge difference because the data on protection over anything longer than a couple of months simply isn't there.
And unfortunately the more the virus spreads the more people are going to catch it and the higher % of people that either aren't jabbed or are vulnerable will catch it. This will lead to worse symptoms amongst the population as a whole. Also I would argue strongly that it being summer over there is a big factor in how the disease impacts not only the amount of people but also the severity once they get it.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Birdman1811 - 12-16-2021
It's well known respiratory viruses are easier to deal with in summer months. Surely this doesn't need to be explained to anyone by now?
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 12-16-2021
As there is focus on London I've looked at the hospitalisation figures for the NHS Region of London (I'm not certain where that covers specifically and if it matches what is being reported on but it can't be far off).
Much like the wider England picture that I have been measuring, since the start of August figures have been pretty static. 1,029 on the 30th July rising to 1,225 at the end of September and steadily downwards until the 22nd October. Then a couple of weeks of growth followed by 5 static weeks up until the 3rd December. Since then week on week growth was 12% to the 10th and so far to the 15th (actual week on week increase from the 8th) is 20%.
So definitely a higher growth than we have been having but I would have built in a growth at this time of year anyway as we are now into the winter months. If that gets translated to the whole of England and we are looking at 20% growth then we will hit that 15k mark in mid to late January.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Ted Maul - 12-16-2021
Just the 88k cases today. Blimey.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Kit Kat Chunky - 12-16-2021
(12-16-2021, 04:10 PM)Ted Maul Wrote: Just the 88k cases today. Blimey.
True, but look at the rate of increase of testing. You test more, you will find more. The ZOE app which has been consistently accurate, is reporting an R rate of just above 1.
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 12-16-2021
Comparing it with the same dates for 2020 (therefore without vaccines) and updating the 20% in London figure from earlier to 25% with todays figures now available; 16th December 2020 we had 15,465 in hospital which was a 15% increase on the previous week, we are on 6,405 and have just seen a 5% increase.
The equivalent next few weeks from last year saw increases of 15%, 27%; 22% and 18% taking us up to 32.6k in hospital and by that time we were back in lockdown. Increases of 25% from this point will get us to 20k by mid to late January - if we do see those sort of figures then we can expect a lockdown again just after Christmas. But that has to be seen as worse case as for England as a whole we are still seeing low increases despite what is happening in London and we have the jabs being rolled out at a terrific rate. The increase from yesterday across England is 47 and seeing as London's increase on its own is 88, it shows that the numbers are still falling elsewhere.
RE: UK Covid death toll - strawman - 12-16-2021
(12-16-2021, 04:25 PM)Kit Kat Chunky Wrote:(12-16-2021, 04:10 PM)Ted Maul Wrote: Just the 88k cases today. Blimey.
True, but look at the rate of increase of testing. You test more, you will find more. The ZOE app which has been consistently accurate, is reporting an R rate of just above 1.
1319811 tests yesterday 5.96% positive rate
1635922 tests today 5.4% positive rate
Does this mean that it's already on the wane
(That's a joke BTW)
RE: UK Covid death toll - Fido - 12-16-2021
(12-16-2021, 04:38 PM)strawman Wrote:(12-16-2021, 04:25 PM)Kit Kat Chunky Wrote:(12-16-2021, 04:10 PM)Ted Maul Wrote: Just the 88k cases today. Blimey.
True, but look at the rate of increase of testing. You test more, you will find more. The ZOE app which has been consistently accurate, is reporting an R rate of just above 1.
1319811 tests yesterday 5.96% positive rate
1635922 tests today 5.4% positive rate
Does this mean that it's already on the wane
(That's a joke BTW)
How often do people log these LFTs when they are negative? I did one Tuesday and as soon as I saw it was fine it went in the bin.