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+--- Thread: UK Covid death toll (/showthread.php?tid=10162)
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RE: UK Covid death toll - Borin' Baggie - 12-15-2021
(12-15-2021, 06:27 PM)baggy1 Wrote: Listening to the press conference they are basically saying that won't see an interpretation in hospitalisations from the high level of cases for a couple of weeks, I would have thought that as we are seeing so many cases we would already be seeing a proportion of those in hospital but maybe I'm misremembering how it all happens. With cases so high I would expect to see some movement in hospitalisations over the next few days so that will be key to how this will impact us. Buckle in.
Also, re the presser, did Whitty say that he expects his Christmas plans to be disrupted?
RE: UK Covid death toll - Birdman1811 - 12-15-2021
Good point on the BBC live feed. Lockdown has very little benefit at this point other than continue the pandemic. Lockdowns, unless you have something to wait for, such as vaccinations, or medicine to treat the illness, don't stop anything, because it is physically impossible to stop all spread. All you do is kick the can further down the road. Ultimately, what is needed is support for the Health Services to match demand, and that's staff, beds and time.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Shabby Russian - 12-15-2021
(12-15-2021, 06:49 PM)Birdman1811 Wrote: Good point on the BBC live feed. Lockdown has very little benefit at this point other than continue the pandemic. Lockdowns, unless you have something to wait for, such as vaccinations, or medicine to treat the illness, don't stop anything, because it is physically impossible to stop all spread. All you do is kick the can further down the road. Ultimately, what is needed is support for the Health Services to match demand, and that's staff, beds and time.
Not sure that's correct. In the first wave lockdown did have a very positive effect on transmission, without any vaccines and medicines.
Lockdown will probably not work now because people won't observe it in the way they did for the first lockdown.
Covid isn't going to go away, and we need to find a way to manage it when transmission rates increase, either due to seasonal factors or the arrival of new variants. Because the nature of this disease is that increases in transmission lead to increases in hospitalizations .
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggiebuckster - 12-15-2021
How can Whitty explain away the potential milder effects of Omicron due to a higher level of immunity in SA?
They have 25% jabbed compared to our 80% so by that logic it implies that natural immunity is the driving factor and therefore better than vaccine induced immunity.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Derek Hardballs - 12-15-2021
Whittyisms
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 12-16-2021
(12-15-2021, 07:30 PM)baggiebuckster Wrote: How can Whitty explain away the potential milder effects of Omicron due to a higher level of immunity in SA?
They have 25% jabbed compared to our 80% so by that logic it implies that natural immunity is the driving factor and therefore better than vaccine induced immunity.
Or that it's summer over there and they have a younger population. Can we please stop trying to play down the importance of the vaccines when we saw what 12 months was like without them (110k excess deaths) compared to this year (60k to week 48). And those figures are heavily countered by the lockdowns we had to endure and the knock on affect of those lockdowns to businesses and lives, and also the strain on the NHS because of the wards full of covid patients which impacted on all other procedures and the knock on affect that will have on health going forward.
It is simply foolish to consider that we could be in any better situation without the ongoing requirements for getting jabbed.
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggiebuckster - 12-16-2021
(12-16-2021, 10:04 AM)baggy1 Wrote:I made no reference to the events of the last 12 months. I was purely referencing Omicron and the comments made by Whitty about this particular variant.(12-15-2021, 07:30 PM)baggiebuckster Wrote: How can Whitty explain away the potential milder effects of Omicron due to a higher level of immunity in SA?
They have 25% jabbed compared to our 80% so by that logic it implies that natural immunity is the driving factor and therefore better than vaccine induced immunity.
Or that it's summer over there and they have a younger population. Can we please stop trying to play down the importance of the vaccines when we saw what 12 months was like without them (110k excess deaths) compared to this year (60k to week 48). And those figures are heavily countered by the lockdowns we had to endure and the knock on affect of those lockdowns to businesses and lives, and also the strain on the NHS because of the wards full of covid patients which impacted on all other procedures and the knock on affect that will have on health going forward.
It is simply foolish to consider that we could be in any better situation without the ongoing requirements for getting jabbed.
RE: UK Covid death toll - FenlandBoing - 12-16-2021
I should think numbers in hospital will spike considerably in London if stats saying a third of Londoners have had no vaccination yet! Is that really true?
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 12-16-2021
(12-16-2021, 11:34 AM)baggiebuckster Wrote:(12-16-2021, 10:04 AM)baggy1 Wrote:I made no reference to the events of the last 12 months. I was purely referencing Omicron and the comments made by Whitty about this particular variant.(12-15-2021, 07:30 PM)baggiebuckster Wrote: How can Whitty explain away the potential milder effects of Omicron due to a higher level of immunity in SA?
They have 25% jabbed compared to our 80% so by that logic it implies that natural immunity is the driving factor and therefore better than vaccine induced immunity.
Or that it's summer over there and they have a younger population. Can we please stop trying to play down the importance of the vaccines when we saw what 12 months was like without them (110k excess deaths) compared to this year (60k to week 48). And those figures are heavily countered by the lockdowns we had to endure and the knock on affect of those lockdowns to businesses and lives, and also the strain on the NHS because of the wards full of covid patients which impacted on all other procedures and the knock on affect that will have on health going forward.
It is simply foolish to consider that we could be in any better situation without the ongoing requirements for getting jabbed.
You were directly referencing the past 20 months by suggesting that natural (herd) immunity is better than vaccine immunity.
You are also comparing what is happening in South Africa with what is happening here despite:
- It being summer over there;
- They have a smaller population spread over 5 times the area
- The median age in SA is 28, compared to 41 in the UK
- The largest city over there has a population of 3M, compared to London's 7M
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggiebuckster - 12-16-2021
(12-16-2021, 11:48 AM)baggy1 Wrote:(12-16-2021, 11:34 AM)baggiebuckster Wrote:(12-16-2021, 10:04 AM)baggy1 Wrote:I made no reference to the events of the last 12 months. I was purely referencing Omicron and the comments made by Whitty about this particular variant.(12-15-2021, 07:30 PM)baggiebuckster Wrote: How can Whitty explain away the potential milder effects of Omicron due to a higher level of immunity in SA?
They have 25% jabbed compared to our 80% so by that logic it implies that natural immunity is the driving factor and therefore better than vaccine induced immunity.
Or that it's summer over there and they have a younger population. Can we please stop trying to play down the importance of the vaccines when we saw what 12 months was like without them (110k excess deaths) compared to this year (60k to week 48). And those figures are heavily countered by the lockdowns we had to endure and the knock on affect of those lockdowns to businesses and lives, and also the strain on the NHS because of the wards full of covid patients which impacted on all other procedures and the knock on affect that will have on health going forward.
It is simply foolish to consider that we could be in any better situation without the ongoing requirements for getting jabbed.
You were directly referencing the past 20 months by suggesting that natural (herd) immunity is better than vaccine immunity.
You are also comparing what is happening in South Africa with what is happening here despite:And your conclusion is that it must be down to natural immunity. It's probably a bit more nuanced than that if I'm honest.
- It being summer over there;
- They have a smaller population spread over 5 times the area
- The median age in SA is 28, compared to 41 in the UK
- The largest city over there has a population of 3M, compared to London's 7M
Half of those facts are irrelevant. He was clearly referencing the level of severity of disease in people that caught Omicron - not how many caught it in the first place. The only factor in your list that may be an influencer on severity is the age factor.
So the implication from Whitty was that people who caught Omicron didn't suffer too badly due to prior immunity which can't all have been from the vaccine.
As much as you accuse me of trying to ignore/manipulate facts/opinions etc you are in danger of placing these vaccines on a pedestal when this variant has clearly changed the landscape. Let's be honest nobody (you included) have a clue if this mass rollout of boosters is going to make a huge difference because the data on protection over anything longer than a couple of months simply isn't there.