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+--- Thread: UK Covid death toll (/showthread.php?tid=10162)
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RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 12-15-2021
(12-08-2021, 08:35 PM)baggy1 Wrote: As we have bizarrely moved to Plan B for some 'unknown reason' it's probably worth a look at the figures to put some context on the decision (I'm struggling to find one btw).
As of this morning there are 6,053 people in hospital beds in England with covid, that is a 4% increase on last week when it stood at 5,829. This is the 1st week we have had an increase in over a month and it is a small one. To put some worst case scenarios into the mix, at the height of the increasing numbers (last November and this July) we were at 45% increases week on week. If we suddenly jump to those sort of increases then we will reach the peak of the hospitalisations (last January - c34K) in 5 weeks (mid-january).
Don't get me wrong I can see the benefit of vaccine passports in the right circumstances, but there is nothing to indicate that these are the right circumstances. And using the South African figures to emphasise the potential growth rate is a bit disingenuous at South Africa has about 25% of it's population with even 1 dose if I'm correct with what I'm reading.
We all know what this is about and it has nothing to do with protection and all to do with distraction.
As it is getting nervy out there it is probably worth bringing it back to the figures. Again we have had an increase in the hospitalisations but again it is a small increase 5%. We currently have 6358 in hospital in England with covid after 2 weeks of 4 and 5% increases.
We talk of protecting the NHS and have seen the strain that it has been under over the last couple of years but we know that 15k in hospital is where the creaking really starts (there were over 30k last January) and in order to get to that figure we will need to see week on week increases of 20% (it is 5% at the moment) for the next 5 weeks to hit 15k by mid Jan.
We moved over 5k at the start of August and we have peaked at 7.3k at the start of November and are about half way between those numbers at the moment. Obviously we need to monitor this new variant but everything points towards it being milder especially with the numbers vaccinated. My son has two jabs and tested positive yesterday and is carrying on with work today.
Get the booster jabs when you can, keep testing and being careful but I am still surprised about the noise the government are making about this. Hopefully I am correct but the data isn't reflecting the large increase in cases with an increase in hospital numbers yet.
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggiebuckster - 12-15-2021
How do you know your son has Omicron?
RE: UK Covid death toll - Birdman1811 - 12-15-2021
Also to note, week on week deaths are down, by a significant amount too.
We are coming to the point of living with it as an endemic virus, but it's important to test, be sensible if you have symptoms, and yes, get vaccinated.
I'm concerned how much noise the government, and by extension the media is making, with the stats its literally worst case scenario that we'll really hit an issue. This just fuels the paranoia and conspiracy theorist, making it harder to deal with.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Birdman1811 - 12-15-2021
(12-15-2021, 04:31 PM)baggiebuckster Wrote: How do you know your son has Omicron?
Didn't say he had.
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggiebuckster - 12-15-2021
(12-15-2021, 04:31 PM)Birdman1811 Wrote:(12-15-2021, 04:31 PM)baggiebuckster Wrote: How do you know your son has Omicron?
Didn't say he had.
Oh sorry - I took this paragraph as a collective.
Obviously we need to monitor this new variant but everything points towards it being milder especially with the numbers vaccinated. My son has two jabs and tested positive yesterday and is carrying on with work today.
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 12-15-2021
I'd made an assumption bucky, he had a PCR test yesterday which is meant to say which variant it is but haven't checked with him. My bad for not checking and actually not speaking to him today when he was ill
(12-15-2021, 04:31 PM)Birdman1811 Wrote: Also to note, week on week deaths are down, by a significant amount too.
We are coming to the point of living with it as an endemic virus, but it's important to test, be sensible if you have symptoms, and yes, get vaccinated.
I'm concerned how much noise the government, and by extension the media is making, with the stats its literally worst case scenario that we'll really hit an issue. This just fuels the paranoia and conspiracy theorist, making it harder to deal with.
This is it exactly Birdy
RE: UK Covid death toll - Ted Maul - 12-15-2021
(12-15-2021, 04:31 PM)Birdman1811 Wrote: Also to note, week on week deaths are down, by a significant amount too.
We are coming to the point of living with it as an endemic virus, but it's important to test, be sensible if you have symptoms, and yes, get vaccinated.
I'm concerned how much noise the government, and by extension the media is making, with the stats its literally worst case scenario that we'll really hit an issue. This just fuels the paranoia and conspiracy theorist, making it harder to deal with.
Had this discussion earlier en route to get my Mrs her booster. She's meant to be in London this weekend seeing friends she's not seen for ages. On one hand she's looking forward to seeing folks, on the other she doesn't want to get Covid and ruin Christmas by making us both isolate. At which point do we remove the need to isolate. Whilst all the numbers B1 has shared seem positive, as do the initial findings from South Africa, we can't carry on with people just removing themselves from society for a fortnight at a time.
Testing before attending large events is wise, but at some point we must move away from encouraging people to test if they have no symptoms.
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggiebuckster - 12-15-2021
I see Boris screws up within 30 seconds of starting this press conference by stating there are 780k new Covid cases today.
After the fiasco yesterday with Raab claiming 250 Omicron patients in hospital when the true figure was 10.
How can they be so incompetent?
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 12-15-2021
Listening to the press conference they are basically saying that won't see an interpretation in hospitalisations from the high level of cases for a couple of weeks, I would have thought that as we are seeing so many cases we would already be seeing a proportion of those in hospital but maybe I'm misremembering how it all happens. With cases so high I would expect to see some movement in hospitalisations over the next few days so that will be key to how this will impact us. Buckle in.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Birdman1811 - 12-15-2021
(12-15-2021, 06:27 PM)baggy1 Wrote: Listening to the press conference they are basically saying that won't see an interpretation in hospitalisations from the high level of cases for a couple of weeks, I would have thought that as we are seeing so many cases we would already be seeing a proportion of those in hospital but maybe I'm misremembering how it all happens. With cases so high I would expect to see some movement in hospitalisations over the next few days so that will be key to how this will impact us. Buckle in.
I'd wait and see, it's never taken that long before to get the numbers of hospitalisations up. Of course they may know something we don't.