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+--- Thread: UK Covid death toll (/showthread.php?tid=10162)
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RE: UK Covid death toll - JOK - 08-10-2021
Following on from the previous and highly inaccurate outlandish statement about us falling behind in vaccinating the population compared to our peers.
“The U.K. leading the rest of Europe.
in terms of the absolute number of vaccinations, Germany and the United Kingdom -- which approved its first COVID 19 vaccine on December 2 nearly three weeks before the EU -- are racing ahead with immunising their people.”
And still only Canada, Denmark and Belgium (of our peers ) have double jabbed more of their population.
https://www.euronews.com/2021/08/06/covid-19-vaccinations-in-europe-which-countries-are-leading-the-way
With Hospital admissions falling, and the death rate per infection massively down (1 one in 1,000 compared to one in 60 last winter) can’t we just allow ourselves a little bit of respite from the droning of constant misery, gnashing of teeth and scare mongering we have been bombarded with on here? Accentuate the positives , as somebody once sang, for sanity’s sake.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Derek Hardballs - 08-10-2021
(08-10-2021, 05:57 PM)JOK Wrote: Following on from the previous and highly inaccurate outlandish statement about us falling behind in vaccinating the population compared to our peers.
“The U.K. leading the rest of Europe.
in terms of the absolute number of vaccinations, Germany and the United Kingdom -- which approved its first COVID 19 vaccine on December 2 nearly three weeks before the EU -- are racing ahead with immunising their people.”
And still only Canada, Denmark and Belgium (of our peers ) have double jabbed more of their population.
https://www.euronews.com/2021/08/06/covid-19-vaccinations-in-europe-which-countries-are-leading-the-way
With Hospital admissions falling, and the death rate per infection massively down (1 one in 1,000 compared to one in 60 last winter) can’t we just allow ourselves a little bit of respite from the droning of constant misery, gnashing of teeth and scare mongering we have been bombarded with on here? Accentuate the positives , as somebody once sang, for sanity’s sake.
Here’s an updated stats from the FT which gives a broader set of statistics.
FT Vaccine
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 08-11-2021
(08-10-2021, 05:57 PM)JOK Wrote: With Hospital admissions falling, and the death rate per infection massively down (1 one in 1,000 compared to one in 60 last winter) can’t we just allow ourselves a little bit of respite from the droning of constant misery, gnashing of teeth and scare mongering we have been bombarded with on here? Accentuate the positives , as somebody once sang, for sanity’s sake.
Bit harsh JOK, for the majority of 2021 this thread has been quite balanced I would have said. The statistics have driven the agenda and commentary, as much as we'd all like to paint a rosy picture of what has been happening the handling of this pandemic in the country (in fact the world) has been pretty poor on the whole. One great achievement that has been regularly praised is the vaccine rollout and that has put us into a position where we are heading in the right direction but we can't be complacent. Hospital admissions aren't falling, they have levelled out but as you say the death rate from covid has dropped dramatically from last year (although your comparison would have been better to measure the same time of year to get a fair representation).
We are not out of this yet and need to be acutely aware that we are heading into the worst period for this virus and continued work to reduce spread and hospitalisations now will reap benefits in autumn / winter. If we ease off now we face another winter of discontent. The 11th August 2020 saw 672 in hospital in England, 11th August 2021 has around 5,000 - if that stat doesn't make you think twice and you still feel pissed off that we are not accentuating the positives then you need to consider the bigger picture I'm afraid.
RE: UK Covid death toll - JOK - 08-11-2021
(08-11-2021, 09:10 AM)baggy1 Wrote: Bit harsh JOK, for the majority of 2021 this thread has been quite balanced I would have said. The statistics have driven the agenda and commentary, as much as we'd all like to paint a rosy picture of what has been happening the handling of this pandemic in the country (in fact the world) has been pretty poor on the whole. One great achievement that has been regularly praised is the vaccine rollout and that has put us into a position where we are heading in the right direction but we can't be complacent. Hospital admissions aren't falling, they have levelled out but as you say the death rate from covid has dropped dramatically from last year (although your comparison would have been better to measure the same time of year to get a fair representation).
We are not out of this yet and need to be acutely aware that we are heading into the worst period for this virus and continued work to reduce spread and hospitalisations now will reap benefits in autumn / winter. If we ease off now we face another winter of discontent. The 11th August 2020 saw 672 in hospital in England, 11th August 2021 has around 5,000 - if that stat doesn't make you think twice and you still feel pissed off that we are not accentuating the positives then you need to consider the bigger picture I'm afraid.
I’m not suggesting that the unpleasant stats and administrative fudging isn’t commented upon, it is more the talking down of any good news or the inferring that situations are worse than they actually are. I don’t think I can agree that all the commentary has been balanced. I know you have done stirling work in posting the figures in an impartial way but I think you have to admit there are one or two who choose to, shall we say, ‘interpret’ the statistics in a ‘creative’ way. Such as the “falling behind our peers” in vaccinations pronouncement. Unless we consider the UAE, Bahrain and Qatar as our peers. Small, immensely wealthy states with tiny populations. I don’t expect a “rosy picture” just an accurate one.
In my defence re. falling admissions, I was quoting the BBC site which said: “ Fewer people being admitted to hospital.” (source U.K. Gov 10th August) Though just checking I hadn’t misread it, I find further down the page they put “Number of patients in hospital stable”. (Source U.K.gov 9th August)
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274
I am all for maintaining caution (and I am still cautious myself) and I am fully aware this is far from over but what I believe to be un remitting misery, that some churn out is merely stoking up or at best, promulgating fear.
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 08-11-2021
All fair points, I am reasonably optimistic with the direction of travel but I do wish we could close that gap on the numbers vaccinated, although the point on other countries catching us up was always going to be the case as with less people to vaccinate the numbers will slow down.
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 08-11-2021
(07-21-2021, 03:14 PM)baggy1 Wrote: 16th Sept - 929
23rd Sept - 1,439 (1.55 x previous week)
30th Sept - 2,036 (1.41 x pw)
7th Oct - 3,066 (1.51 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,313 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,271 (1.45 x pw)
28th Oct - 9,070 (1.45 x pw)
4th Nov - 11,037 (1.22 x pw) (Lockdown 5th November)
11th Nov - 12,730 (1.15 x pw)
18th Nov - 14,490 (1.14 x pw)
25th Nov - 14,240 (0.98 x pw)
2nd Dec - 13,212 (0.93 x pw)
9th Dec - 13,467 (1.02 x pw)
16th Dec - 15,465 (1.15 x pw)
23rd Dec - 17,834 (1.15 x pw)
30th Dec - 22,713 (1.27 x pw)
6th Jan - 27,727 (1.22 x pw) (Lockdown 6th January)
13th Jan - 32,689 (1.18 x pw)
20th Jan - 33,886 (1.04 x pw)
27th Jan - 30,846 (0.91 x pw)
3rd Feb - 26,374 (0.86 x pw)
10th Feb - 20,926 (0.79 x pw)
17th Feb - 16,458 (0.79 x pw)
24th Feb - 13,007 (0.79 x pw)
3rd Mar - 9,594 (0.74 x pw)
10th Mar - 6,945 (0.73 x pw)
17th Mar - 5,397 (0.77 x pw)
24th Mar - 4,005 (0.74 x pw)
31st Mar - 3,084 (0.77 x pw)
7th April - 2,486 (0.81 x pw)
14th April - 1,972 (0.79 x pw)
21st April - 1,609 (0.82 x pw)
28th April - 1,278 (0.79 x pw)
5th May - 1,032 (0.81 x pw)
12th May - 907 (0.88 x pw)
19th May - 757 (0.83 x pw)
26th May - 745 (0.98 x pw)
2nd June - 801 (1.08 x pw)
9th June - 876 (1.09 x pw)
16th June - 1,057 (1.21 x pw)
23rd June - 1,255 (1.19 x pw)
30th June - 1,500 (1.2 x pw)
7th July - 2,144 (1.43 x pw)
14th July - 3,110 (1.45 x pw)
21st July - 4,063 (1.31 x pw)
28th July - 5182 (1.28 x pw)
4th Aug - 4,944 (0.95 x pw)
11th Aug - 5,073 (1.03 x pw)
A week of little progress either way on the hospital numbers with them staying roughly the same for two weeks now. Good news that it isn't increasing but we have to realise that we are a long way of having this under control. Compared to this period 12 months ago we had less than 1,000 in hospital and we now have over 5 times that. We've had similar % plateauing figures in the past with 1 going on to go up again (Nov/Dec) and one going on to go down (Jan), the next few weeks will give us an indication of where we are going.
We're on 89.1% of the adult population having had one jab and 3/4s having had both, unfortunately 10.9% of the adult population is 5.7M people that haven't had the jabs which is still a large number and we need to keep using onwards with the vaccination to get that as low as possible.
Some interesting debates going on at the moment, Should we have a booster jab or should we give the doses to countries that haven't had as much vaccination availability; and giving jabs to kids and how young should they go. I think while we still have a sizeable hospitalised population we should carry on with the booster programme, we are leading the way in vaccines with our early start, we don't want to find out that actually we needed the boosters after all and have to play catch up after all the hard work. And for me, as long as the data available shows that jabbing kids has proven safe, it has been rolled out in different countries with no issues, then I'm all for it.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Tom Joad - 08-11-2021
If we could say now (after living with covid for 20 months or so), how many of the population definitely have antibodies, we would have a much better idea of whether or not we need a booster. I was tested as part of the OU/ONS scheme but couldn't get enough blood into the test tube. A mate got tested some 17 months after having covid and he was also one of the earliest jabs (he is classed as vulnerable). His test revealed he had antibodies both from having the illness AND from having the jab. Personally, I find that encouraging.
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggiebuckster - 08-11-2021
(08-11-2021, 03:22 PM)baggy1 Wrote:(07-21-2021, 03:14 PM)baggy1 Wrote: 16th Sept - 929
23rd Sept - 1,439 (1.55 x previous week)
30th Sept - 2,036 (1.41 x pw)
7th Oct - 3,066 (1.51 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,313 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,271 (1.45 x pw)
28th Oct - 9,070 (1.45 x pw)
4th Nov - 11,037 (1.22 x pw) (Lockdown 5th November)
11th Nov - 12,730 (1.15 x pw)
18th Nov - 14,490 (1.14 x pw)
25th Nov - 14,240 (0.98 x pw)
2nd Dec - 13,212 (0.93 x pw)
9th Dec - 13,467 (1.02 x pw)
16th Dec - 15,465 (1.15 x pw)
23rd Dec - 17,834 (1.15 x pw)
30th Dec - 22,713 (1.27 x pw)
6th Jan - 27,727 (1.22 x pw) (Lockdown 6th January)
13th Jan - 32,689 (1.18 x pw)
20th Jan - 33,886 (1.04 x pw)
27th Jan - 30,846 (0.91 x pw)
3rd Feb - 26,374 (0.86 x pw)
10th Feb - 20,926 (0.79 x pw)
17th Feb - 16,458 (0.79 x pw)
24th Feb - 13,007 (0.79 x pw)
3rd Mar - 9,594 (0.74 x pw)
10th Mar - 6,945 (0.73 x pw)
17th Mar - 5,397 (0.77 x pw)
24th Mar - 4,005 (0.74 x pw)
31st Mar - 3,084 (0.77 x pw)
7th April - 2,486 (0.81 x pw)
14th April - 1,972 (0.79 x pw)
21st April - 1,609 (0.82 x pw)
28th April - 1,278 (0.79 x pw)
5th May - 1,032 (0.81 x pw)
12th May - 907 (0.88 x pw)
19th May - 757 (0.83 x pw)
26th May - 745 (0.98 x pw)
2nd June - 801 (1.08 x pw)
9th June - 876 (1.09 x pw)
16th June - 1,057 (1.21 x pw)
23rd June - 1,255 (1.19 x pw)
30th June - 1,500 (1.2 x pw)
7th July - 2,144 (1.43 x pw)
14th July - 3,110 (1.45 x pw)
21st July - 4,063 (1.31 x pw)
28th July - 5182 (1.28 x pw)
4th Aug - 4,944 (0.95 x pw)
11th Aug - 5,073 (1.03 x pw)
A week of little progress either way on the hospital numbers with them staying roughly the same for two weeks now. Good news that it isn't increasing but we have to realise that we are a long way of having this under control. Compared to this period 12 months ago we had less than 1,000 in hospital and we now have over 5 times that. We've had similar % plateauing figures in the past with 1 going on to go up again (Nov/Dec) and one going on to go down (Jan), the next few weeks will give us an indication of where we are going.
We're on 89.1% of the adult population having had one jab and 3/4s having had both, unfortunately 10.9% of the adult population is 5.7M people that haven't had the jabs which is still a large number and we need to keep using onwards with the vaccination to get that as low as possible.
Some interesting debates going on at the moment, Should we have a booster jab or should we give the doses to countries that haven't had as much vaccination availability; and giving jabs to kids and how young should they go. I think while we still have a sizeable hospitalised population we should carry on with the booster programme, we are leading the way in vaccines with our early start, we don't want to find out that actually we needed the boosters after all and have to play catch up after all the hard work. And for me, as long as the data available shows that jabbing kids has proven safe, it has been rolled out in different countries with no issues, then I'm all for it.
Any ideas on why this is the case? Is it simply down to restrictions being eased?
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 08-11-2021
Not certain bb, it could be to do with the peaks that the 1st and the 2nd wave reached, the 1st wave 'only' reached about 18k but there was 4 months between then and Aug 2020 and the low numbers remained until September when they started to rise, whereas the 2nd (or third depending on your point of view) reached 34k and got right down to the same (less than 1k) figures but started to rise again in June which was much earlier than after the 1st wave.
It could be to do with the delta variant being stronger and hitting a lower age group. It might be simply that we are at the peak of this 3rd / 4th wave and this is as bad as it gets. All of this is why its such a bastard to feel safe and get back on with normality. I was pretty certain that we would see an annual cycle and then be able to predict but the last couple of months have chucked that out the window.
RE: UK Covid death toll - keef - 08-11-2021
thanks for your input baggy1 you have been bang on with your account of this covid 19
i am going to give you my account of what i have read and seen so far
this is not disagreeing with anything you have previously posted
this virus is very good at it wants to do it wants to infect the whole poppulation of the world just like other viruses before it. if we lock down
the deaths and infections go down we open up and they rise as we have seen three times. and the countries we applauded at the start are now increasing again
this virus will have its day whatever we do.
i never understood or agreed with herd immunity but i do now.
with the help of the vaccination we are getting to that point a lot quicker than naturel infections
this is the way that the human race has beat these viruses in the past and the only way out is herd emmunity.
thanks to the scientists we are getting there quicker