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+--- Thread: UK Covid death toll (/showthread.php?tid=10162)
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RE: UK Covid death toll - Derek Hardballs - 07-31-2021
SAGE report… there is no such thing as back to normal!
Regardless of what some pretend is possible. Let’s hope it gets less deadly not more. I’m pretty sure I got shouted down for suggesting this previously.
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggiebuckster - 07-31-2021
So SAGE suggest Covid could become more or less deadly. Wish I had paid more attention in science class so that I could make such accurate predictions.
RE: UK Covid death toll - AmsterdamBaggie - 07-31-2021
Seeking simple answers to complex problems…
RE: UK Covid death toll - richbaggie - 08-04-2021
BBC News - Covid cases and hospital admissions down - is it over?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58078900
Very upbeat from the BBC News website although saying it's over is over the top.
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 08-04-2021
(08-04-2021, 06:41 AM)richbaggie Wrote: BBC News - Covid cases and hospital admissions down - is it over?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58078900
Very upbeat from the BBC News website although saying it's over is over the top.
I'll put an update to the figures later rich but we have plateaued over the past seven days which is good news (definitely the start of the good news). After 2 months of increases in the numbers in hospital to see them stop increasing is great news. I think it is important to look at the dates involved, we have levelled off from about the 28th which is 16 days after the Euro 2020 final, increases started ramping up from about the 12th June which was the start of the tournament and they started to increase heavily around the 4th July which is about a week after the round of 16 started. These dates could just be coincidental but i would say there will be some correlation between people gathering at large events / pubs / houses to watch games and the increases in the number of hospitalisations. If it is indeed the case it doesn't bode well for large groups getting together over the winter, and more reason to get those last few million vaccinated.
RE: UK Covid death toll - richbaggie - 08-04-2021
(08-04-2021, 08:29 AM)baggy1 Wrote:(08-04-2021, 06:41 AM)richbaggie Wrote: BBC News - Covid cases and hospital admissions down - is it over?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58078900
Very upbeat from the BBC News website although saying it's over is over the top.
I'll put an update to the figures later rich but we have plateaued over the past seven days which is good news (definitely the start of the good news). After 2 months of increases in the numbers in hospital to see them stop increasing is great news. I think it is important to look at the dates involved, we have levelled off from about the 28th which is 16 days after the Euro 2020 final, increases started ramping up from about the 12th June which was the start of the tournament and they started to increase heavily around the 4th July which is about a week after the round of 16 started. These dates could just be coincidental but i would say there will be some correlation between people gathering at large events / pubs / houses to watch games and the increases in the number of hospitalisations. If it is indeed the case it doesn't bode well for large groups getting together over the winter, and more reason to get those last few million vaccinated.
The next wave, as BBC suggest, will likely coincide with flu which will put pressure on. It's a huge positive that this big wave hasn't caused anywhere near the level of hospitalisations and deaths which shows the vaccine wall has done a great job.
On a personal level, I can vouch for that. Just come out of 10 day isolation in our house. Daughter caught it, fairly mild symptoms, but the wife and I have tested negatively 10 days on trot so our double jab played It's part.
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 08-04-2021
Agree with all of that - the increases started to mirror those in Sept / Oct last year but appear to have simply fizzled out with the big difference being the vaccines. It is getting through in some parts, a friend of mine caught it just after watching one of the England games in a pub in Solihull and had the symptoms for a few days but was more than likely protected from a worse dose by being double jabbed.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Brentbaggie - 08-04-2021
Just back from a GP appointment and she was pretty upbeat not least as she is also very knowledgeable about vaccines. Says that they have had a lot of old patients; I.e. over 75, who have been double jabbed, subsequently caught the virus but only showed mild symptoms. She said several could only have caught the virus from unvaccinated carers, about which she was furious. While she felt she had to accept individuals’ rights to refuse this should not carry to carers.
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 08-04-2021
(07-21-2021, 03:14 PM)baggy1 Wrote: 16th Sept - 929
23rd Sept - 1,439 (1.55 x previous week)
30th Sept - 2,036 (1.41 x pw)
7th Oct - 3,066 (1.51 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,313 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,271 (1.45 x pw)
28th Oct - 9,070 (1.45 x pw)
4th Nov - 11,037 (1.22 x pw) (Lockdown 5th November)
11th Nov - 12,730 (1.15 x pw)
18th Nov - 14,490 (1.14 x pw)
25th Nov - 14,240 (0.98 x pw)
2nd Dec - 13,212 (0.93 x pw)
9th Dec - 13,467 (1.02 x pw)
16th Dec - 15,465 (1.15 x pw)
23rd Dec - 17,834 (1.15 x pw)
30th Dec - 22,713 (1.27 x pw)
6th Jan - 27,727 (1.22 x pw) (Lockdown 6th January)
13th Jan - 32,689 (1.18 x pw)
20th Jan - 33,886 (1.04 x pw)
27th Jan - 30,846 (0.91 x pw)
3rd Feb - 26,374 (0.86 x pw)
10th Feb - 20,926 (0.79 x pw)
17th Feb - 16,458 (0.79 x pw)
24th Feb - 13,007 (0.79 x pw)
3rd Mar - 9,594 (0.74 x pw)
10th Mar - 6,945 (0.73 x pw)
17th Mar - 5,397 (0.77 x pw)
24th Mar - 4,005 (0.74 x pw)
31st Mar - 3,084 (0.77 x pw)
7th April - 2,486 (0.81 x pw)
14th April - 1,972 (0.79 x pw)
21st April - 1,609 (0.82 x pw)
28th April - 1,278 (0.79 x pw)
5th May - 1,032 (0.81 x pw)
12th May - 907 (0.88 x pw)
19th May - 757 (0.83 x pw)
26th May - 745 (0.98 x pw)
2nd June - 801 (1.08 x pw)
9th June - 876 (1.09 x pw)
16th June - 1,057 (1.21 x pw)
23rd June - 1,255 (1.19 x pw)
30th June - 1,500 (1.2 x pw)
7th July - 2,144 (1.43 x pw)
14th July - 3,110 (1.45 x pw)
21st July - 4,063 (1.31 x pw)
28th July - 5182 (1.28 x pw)
4th Aug - 4,944 (0.95 x pw)
Some seriously good news today, we have seen a fall in the numbers in hospital for the 1st time in over 2 months. It might not be a lot but from small acorns... And it definitely reverses a scary trend that was heading towards 10k in a matter of weeks.
So what has changed? Well we have taken away all restrictions which means that it can't be due to any of those, vaccinations haven't had a sudden surge so that won't be the reason either. The only change is our behaviour; over the past couple of months we have been gathering together in pubs, clubs and homes to watch the football and also there have been people allowed to get together at games as well - all of that has now stopped with no football but we have to be aware that it will start again soon. The more vaccinated the better.
On vaccinations they have announced today that they will now look to getting 16 and 17 year olds vaccinated, IMO this is another good step as it has been shown to be safe with the data from around the globe and will add to the reduction in transmission.
1st dose uptake has really stalled with less than 30k getting their 1st dose yesterday compared with a peak of over 480k in March. It really is important to us having a better autumn / winter where we can get together at matches, in pubs and back to normal if as many as possible get vaccinated. Those 6M unvaccinated are holding the rest of the population back now unfortunately.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Derek Hardballs - 08-05-2021
Here’s some information on young people and Covid that probably deserves its own thread.
A fifth of hospital admissions