+- WBAUnofficial (https://wbaunofficial.org.uk)
+-- Forum: WBAUnofficial (https://wbaunofficial.org.uk/forumdisplay.php?fid=3)
+--- Forum: Politics (https://wbaunofficial.org.uk/forumdisplay.php?fid=5)
+--- Thread: UK Covid death toll (/showthread.php?tid=10162)
Pages:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
RE: UK Covid death toll - Tom Joad - 07-11-2021
Is it because we are testing far more that we are finding so many? I had a test last week despite no symptoms or suspicion, (just to be sure before visiting someone). Meanwhile I have mates isolating ( having tested negative) because someone they played golf with somebody that had a positive at work, asymptomatic.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Derek Hardballs - 07-11-2021
(07-11-2021, 02:38 PM)Tom Joad Wrote: Is it because we are testing far more that we are finding so many? I had a test last week despite no symptoms or suspicion, (just to be sure before visiting someone). Meanwhile I have mates isolating ( having tested negative) because someone they played golf with somebody that had a positive at work, asymptomatic.
Are we testing more than Germany, France etc and by a margin that would see increases that big? Also Germany and the rest of the EU are catching us up rapidly with vaccines and Germany may already be ahead of us. I think people are kidding themselves if they think we will be in a better position than the rest of Europe by the winter.
RE: UK Covid death toll - JOK - 07-12-2021
(07-11-2021, 04:25 PM)Derek Hardballs Wrote:(07-11-2021, 02:38 PM)Tom Joad Wrote: Is it because we are testing far more that we are finding so many? I had a test last week despite no symptoms or suspicion, (just to be sure before visiting someone). Meanwhile I have mates isolating ( having tested negative) because someone they played golf with somebody that had a positive at work, asymptomatic.
Are we testing more than Germany, France etc and by a margin that would see increases that big? Also Germany and the rest of the EU are catching us up rapidly with vaccines and Germany may already be ahead of us. I think people are kidding themselves if they think we will be in a better position than the rest of Europe by the winter.
Figures I posted a few days ago:
Daily tests per Million. Up to 30th June.
Austria 41,351
U.K. 15,824
Denmark 12,165
Belgium 4,403
France 3,620
Italy 2,823
Norway 2,705
Spain 1,792
Sweden 1,502
Germany 1,203
Netherlands 774
Hungary 762
So, yes we are doing more testing.
As I said then, though, the results of the testing do seem to show we are getting more positive results per 100,000 tests.
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 07-14-2021
(07-07-2021, 03:29 PM)baggy1 Wrote:(06-30-2021, 04:09 PM)baggy1 Wrote: 16th Sept - 929
23rd Sept - 1,439 (1.55 x previous week)
30th Sept - 2,036 (1.41 x pw)
7th Oct - 3,066 (1.51 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,313 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,271 (1.45 x pw)
28th Oct - 9,070 (1.45 x pw)
4th Nov - 11,037 (1.22 x pw) (Lockdown 5th November)
11th Nov - 12,730 (1.15 x pw)
18th Nov - 14,490 (1.14 x pw)
25th Nov - 14,240 (0.98 x pw)
2nd Dec - 13,212 (0.93 x pw)
9th Dec - 13,467 (1.02 x pw)
16th Dec - 15,465 (1.15 x pw)
23rd Dec - 17,834 (1.15 x pw)
30th Dec - 22,713 (1.27 x pw)
6th Jan - 27,727 (1.22 x pw) (Lockdown 6th January)
13th Jan - 32,689 (1.18 x pw)
20th Jan - 33,886 (1.04 x pw)
27th Jan - 30,846 (0.91 x pw)
3rd Feb - 26,374 (0.86 x pw)
10th Feb - 20,926 (0.79 x pw)
17th Feb - 16,458 (0.79 x pw)
24th Feb - 13,007 (0.79 x pw)
3rd Mar - 9,594 (0.74 x pw)
10th Mar - 6,945 (0.73 x pw)
17th Mar - 5,397 (0.77 x pw)
24th Mar - 4,005 (0.74 x pw)
31st Mar - 3,084 (0.77 x pw)
7th April - 2,486 (0.81 x pw)
14th April - 1,972 (0.79 x pw)
21st April - 1,609 (0.82 x pw)
28th April - 1,278 (0.79 x pw)
5th May - 1,032 (0.81 x pw)
12th May - 907 (0.88 x pw)
19th May - 757 (0.83 x pw)
26th May - 745 (0.98 x pw)
2nd June - 801 (1.08 x pw)
9th June - 876 (1.09 x pw)
16th June - 1,057 (1.21 x pw)
23rd June - 1,255 (1.19 x pw)
30th June - 1,500 (1.2 x pw)
7th July - 2,144 (1.43 x pw)
14th July - 3,110 (1.45 x pw)
A concerning week for numbers in hospital. The increase week on week is 43% for the numbers in hospital in England. That number is very comparable to when we started on the 2nd wave last September but it must be remembered that this is one week's data and we, like then, are dealing with relatively low numbers. Unfortunately the previous examples of these sort of numbers only go one way until we lockdown. The timing of the removing all restrictions press conference is surprising given the data that is out there. One thing that appears to be happening is that the vaccine is working in reducing the impact on the individual but it doesn't appear to be doing much for reducing spread.
The positive news is that over 86% of the adult population has had at least 1 jab (65% have had both) but given the stats above it looks like we really need to get that % as high as possible. 14% of the adult population is over 7M, there is a lot of potential hospitalisations in that number. We appear to have solved the deaths issue but we really need to address the hospital capacity issue because if they get overrun again we get into an another world of cancelled procedures, staff off sick etc.
From this number in hospital a 30% weekly increase gets us to 10k at the end of August and 20k mid way through September, those timings put us right up against the flu season.
Another bad week for hospitalisations, 45% increase on last week which makes it 7 weeks of growth now, 2 at 10%, 3 at 20% and 2 at over 40%. Current trends take us to 10k in hospital by the 2nd week in August and 30k by the end of that month. Now having said that there could be some ease up when the kids aren't at school and obviously we are getting more people vaccinated. I now know of two families with teenage / early 20s kids who have both had to quarantine because the kids have got it - it doesn't put them in hospital but it isn't pleasant for them.
87.4% of adults have had their 1st dose and that is going up by 0.1% a day so 26 days to get to the 90% mark, and 66.7% have had both doses with that going up at 0.2% or 0.3% a day which puts them about 2 and a half months off that 90%.
Opening up without restrictions at this point is a gamble. Fingers crossed they know more than the trends suggest.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Derek Hardballs - 07-14-2021
(07-14-2021, 04:56 PM)baggy1 Wrote:(07-07-2021, 03:29 PM)baggy1 Wrote:(06-30-2021, 04:09 PM)baggy1 Wrote: 16th Sept - 929
23rd Sept - 1,439 (1.55 x previous week)
30th Sept - 2,036 (1.41 x pw)
7th Oct - 3,066 (1.51 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,313 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,271 (1.45 x pw)
28th Oct - 9,070 (1.45 x pw)
4th Nov - 11,037 (1.22 x pw) (Lockdown 5th November)
11th Nov - 12,730 (1.15 x pw)
18th Nov - 14,490 (1.14 x pw)
25th Nov - 14,240 (0.98 x pw)
2nd Dec - 13,212 (0.93 x pw)
9th Dec - 13,467 (1.02 x pw)
16th Dec - 15,465 (1.15 x pw)
23rd Dec - 17,834 (1.15 x pw)
30th Dec - 22,713 (1.27 x pw)
6th Jan - 27,727 (1.22 x pw) (Lockdown 6th January)
13th Jan - 32,689 (1.18 x pw)
20th Jan - 33,886 (1.04 x pw)
27th Jan - 30,846 (0.91 x pw)
3rd Feb - 26,374 (0.86 x pw)
10th Feb - 20,926 (0.79 x pw)
17th Feb - 16,458 (0.79 x pw)
24th Feb - 13,007 (0.79 x pw)
3rd Mar - 9,594 (0.74 x pw)
10th Mar - 6,945 (0.73 x pw)
17th Mar - 5,397 (0.77 x pw)
24th Mar - 4,005 (0.74 x pw)
31st Mar - 3,084 (0.77 x pw)
7th April - 2,486 (0.81 x pw)
14th April - 1,972 (0.79 x pw)
21st April - 1,609 (0.82 x pw)
28th April - 1,278 (0.79 x pw)
5th May - 1,032 (0.81 x pw)
12th May - 907 (0.88 x pw)
19th May - 757 (0.83 x pw)
26th May - 745 (0.98 x pw)
2nd June - 801 (1.08 x pw)
9th June - 876 (1.09 x pw)
16th June - 1,057 (1.21 x pw)
23rd June - 1,255 (1.19 x pw)
30th June - 1,500 (1.2 x pw)
7th July - 2,144 (1.43 x pw)
14th July - 3,110 (1.45 x pw)
A concerning week for numbers in hospital. The increase week on week is 43% for the numbers in hospital in England. That number is very comparable to when we started on the 2nd wave last September but it must be remembered that this is one week's data and we, like then, are dealing with relatively low numbers. Unfortunately the previous examples of these sort of numbers only go one way until we lockdown. The timing of the removing all restrictions press conference is surprising given the data that is out there. One thing that appears to be happening is that the vaccine is working in reducing the impact on the individual but it doesn't appear to be doing much for reducing spread.
The positive news is that over 86% of the adult population has had at least 1 jab (65% have had both) but given the stats above it looks like we really need to get that % as high as possible. 14% of the adult population is over 7M, there is a lot of potential hospitalisations in that number. We appear to have solved the deaths issue but we really need to address the hospital capacity issue because if they get overrun again we get into an another world of cancelled procedures, staff off sick etc.
From this number in hospital a 30% weekly increase gets us to 10k at the end of August and 20k mid way through September, those timings put us right up against the flu season.
Another bad week for hospitalisations, 45% increase on last week which makes it 7 weeks of growth now, 2 at 10%, 3 at 20% and 2 at over 40%. Current trends take us to 10k in hospital by the 2nd week in August and 30k by the end of that month. Now having said that there could be some ease up when the kids aren't at school and obviously we are getting more people vaccinated. I now know of two families with teenage / early 20s kids who have both had to quarantine because the kids have got it - it doesn't put them in hospital but it isn't pleasant for them.
87.4% of adults have had their 1st dose and that is going up by 0.1% a day so 26 days to get to the 90% mark, and 66.7% have had both doses with that going up at 0.2% or 0.3% a day which puts them about 2 and a half months off that 90%.
Opening up without restrictions at this point is a gamble. Fingers crossed they know more than the trends suggest.
This has nothing to do with data or science removing all restrictions is down to Tory MPs throwing their toys out the pram. From the FT
Minister on why masks were scrapped: “Colleagues have reached the end of their tether with restrictions. We couldn’t have got [restrictions] through on Tory votes and there’s no way we could have passed with Labour. It would have been the end of Boris.”
This is the state of British politics, where the likes of an idiots idea of a clever person, Hardman Steve Baker is the tail wagging the sociopathic dog.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Protheroe - 07-14-2021
Lifting restrictions is a political decision? Who knew?
RE: UK Covid death toll - Derek Hardballs - 07-14-2021
(07-14-2021, 05:23 PM)Protheroe Wrote: Lifting restrictions is a political decision? Who knew?
With the caveat they are supposed to be following the science they aren’t, they are following the Tory herd!
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 07-14-2021
(07-14-2021, 05:23 PM)Protheroe Wrote: Lifting restrictions is a political decision? Who knew?
I have no problem with them making a decision, my issue comes with them owning that decision if it goes wrong. The rise in cases for the under 30s that I have seen indicates that this might be a short lived decision and then we are up against that irreversible corner that Johnson has painted himself into.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Ossian - 07-15-2021
Year 10 at the school where my wife works has been closed down by Public Health England; the threshold was actually passed a few days ago and the school year is over for them. Year 9 is borderline in terms of the number of isolations and absenteeisms, and really should also have been shut down by now. Year 11s obviously finished a while back anyway.
The incidence of positive tests has gone through the roof since that brief period of relaxation of wearing masks; it's impossible not to make the connection. Next week is the one where students - those who are still able to attend - will be cramming maskless onto coaches and heading off to places like Alton Towers.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Protheroe - 07-15-2021
(07-15-2021, 08:08 AM)Ossian Wrote: Year 10 at the school where my wife works has been closed down by Public Health England; the threshold was actually passed a few days ago and the school year is over for them. Year 9 is borderline in terms of the number of isolations and absenteeisms, and really should also have been shut down by now. Year 11s obviously finished a while back anyway.
The incidence of positive tests has gone through the roof since that brief period of relaxation of wearing masks; it's impossible not to make the connection. Next week is the one where students - those who are still able to attend - will be cramming maskless onto coaches and heading off to places like Alton Towers.
Are any of the kids actually ill though?