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+--- Thread: UK Covid death toll (/showthread.php?tid=10162)
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RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 07-07-2021
(06-30-2021, 04:09 PM)baggy1 Wrote: 16th Sept - 929
23rd Sept - 1,439 (1.55 x previous week)
30th Sept - 2,036 (1.41 x pw)
7th Oct - 3,066 (1.51 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,313 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,271 (1.45 x pw)
28th Oct - 9,070 (1.45 x pw)
4th Nov - 11,037 (1.22 x pw)
11th Nov - 12,730 (1.15 x pw)
18th Nov - 14,490 (1.14 x pw)
25th Nov - 14,240 (0.98 x pw)
2nd Dec - 13,212 (0.93 x pw)
9th Dec - 13,467 (1.02 x pw)
16th Dec - 15,465 (1.15 x pw)
23rd Dec - 17,834 (1.15 x pw)
30th Dec - 22,713 (1.27 x pw)
6th Jan - 27,727 (1.22 x pw)
13th Jan - 32,689 (1.18 x pw)
20th Jan - 33,886 (1.04 x pw)
27th Jan - 30,846 (0.91 x pw)
3rd Feb - 26,374 (0.86 x pw)
10th Feb - 20,926 (0.79 x pw)
17th Feb - 16,458 (0.79 x pw)
24th Feb - 13,007 (0.79 x pw)
3rd Mar - 9,594 (0.74 x pw)
10th Mar - 6,945 (0.73 x pw)
17th Mar - 5,397 (0.77 x pw)
24th Mar - 4,005 (0.74 x pw)
31st Mar - 3,084 (0.77 x pw)
7th April - 2,486 (0.81 x pw)
14th April - 1,972 (0.79 x pw)
21st April - 1,609 (0.82 x pw)
28th April - 1,278 (0.79 x pw)
5th May - 1,032 (0.81 x pw)
12th May - 907 (0.88 x pw)
19th May - 757 (0.83 x pw)
26th May - 745 (0.98 x pw)
2nd June - 801 (1.08 x pw)
9th June - 876 (1.09 x pw)
16th June - 1,057 (1.21 x pw)
23rd June - 1,255 (1.19 x pw)
30th June - 1,500 (1.2 x pw)
7th July - 2,144 (1.43 x pw)
A concerning week for numbers in hospital. The increase week on week is 43% for the numbers in hospital in England. That number is very comparable to when we started on the 2nd wave last September but it must be remembered that this is one week's data and we, like then, are dealing with relatively low numbers. Unfortunately the previous examples of these sort of numbers only go one way until we lockdown. The timing of the removing all restrictions press conference is surprising given the data that is out there. One thing that appears to be happening is that the vaccine is working in reducing the impact on the individual but it doesn't appear to be doing much for reducing spread.
The positive news is that over 86% of the adult population has had at least 1 jab (65% have had both) but given the stats above it looks like we really need to get that % as high as possible. 14% of the adult population is over 7M, there is a lot of potential hospitalisations in that number. We appear to have solved the deaths issue but we really need to address the hospital capacity issue because if they get overrun again we get into an another world of cancelled procedures, staff off sick etc.
From this number in hospital a 30% weekly increase gets us to 10k at the end of August and 20k mid way through September, those timings put us right up against the flu season.
RE: UK Covid death toll - backsidebaggie - 07-07-2021
IMO they’ll uturn on the masks.
But I haven’t changed my mind that we’ll be back under lockdown restrictions in Oct/nov anyway.
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 07-07-2021
I'm not certain how they could have managed it any worse to be honest with you bb, Johnson managed to do one thing right and that was the vaccine rollout and appears to be getting a lot of allowance off the public because of that. If the numbers continue upwards he will have painted himself into a corner with his 'irreversible' comments.
There are a couple more days worth of data to give any comparable regional increases but so far the main areas of growth in hospitalisations are the North East, South East and the Midlands. All areas are increasing but those the most. If that is the case then the point raised earlier in the week about it sweeping west to east may be true and it might fizzle out - here's hoping!
RE: UK Covid death toll - TETLEY74 - 07-07-2021
(07-07-2021, 03:46 PM)baggy1 Wrote: I'm not certain how they could have managed it any worse to be honest with you bb, Johnson managed to do one thing right and that was the vaccine rollout and appears to be getting a lot of allowance off the public because of that. If the numbers continue upwards he will have painted himself into a corner with his 'irreversible' comments.
There are a couple more days worth of data to give any comparable regional increases but so far the main areas of growth in hospitalisations are the North East, South East and the Midlands. All areas are increasing but those the most. If that is the case then the point raised earlier in the week about it sweeping west to east may be true and it might fizzle out - here's hoping!
Was talking to a friend who works at Sandwell hospital they went to condition red for covid yesterday.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Derek Hardballs - 07-08-2021
Before endorsing this governments let it rip policy perhaps take heed of this article in the Lancet.
Or you could believe Right Said Fred, Lee Hurst, Richard Madeley and Hartley Brewer
RE: UK Covid death toll - JOK - 07-08-2021
(07-08-2021, 07:48 AM)Derek Hardballs Wrote: Before endorsing this governments let it rip policy perhaps take heed of this article in the Lancet.
Or you could believe Right Said Fred, Lee Hurst, Richard Madeley and Hartley Brewer
Why do you keep referencing worthless 'celebs'? What have they got to do with anything other than they have a right to an opinion the same as you? Is it that their social media profile if much, much larger than yours?
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 07-08-2021
(07-08-2021, 07:59 AM)JOK Wrote:(07-08-2021, 07:48 AM)Derek Hardballs Wrote: Before endorsing this governments let it rip policy perhaps take heed of this article in the Lancet.
Or you could believe Right Said Fred, Lee Hurst, Richard Madeley and Hartley Brewer
Why do you keep referencing worthless 'celebs'? What have they got to do with anything other than they have a right to an opinion the same as you? Is it that their social media profile if much, much larger than yours?
I do think that their social media profiles being large are a factor here (well not necessarily those mentioned tbh) but there are a lot of noisy commentators on social media and within the backbenches of the Tory party that are making Johnson uncomfortable and he appears to want to appease them. It does seem increasingly daft to do away with all restrictions and using the words 'irreversible' when we are seeing a growth in hospitalisations and I get the feeling that most of the public would be comfortable with some restrictions being kept. There appears no logic to the road ahead.
If we hit another wave because of the removal of restrictions would you expect Johnson to stay in position having made a number of mistakes in the last 18 months, or would you want him to be replaced with someone who could lead us through this maze.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Derek Hardballs - 07-08-2021
(07-08-2021, 07:59 AM)JOK Wrote:(07-08-2021, 07:48 AM)Derek Hardballs Wrote: Before endorsing this governments let it rip policy perhaps take heed of this article in the Lancet.
Or you could believe Right Said Fred, Lee Hurst, Richard Madeley and Hartley Brewer
Why do you keep referencing worthless 'celebs'? What have they got to do with anything other than they have a right to an opinion the same as you? Is it that their social media profile if much, much larger than yours?
It’s ok you can still play your Right Said Fred CD’s
The point of putting the standard of celebrity in the link was one a bit of fun but also to highlight the gap between the qualifications of many loud social media pundits and scientists who have studied and worked for decades in their field. Yes I went for Z list celebrities but as I said just a bit of fun, I could have mentioned such political heavyweights as Darren Grimes, Ian Brown and Andrew Bridgen
RE: UK Covid death toll - Brentbaggie - 07-08-2021
I think an opinion based on that of experts in the field has somewhat more validity than one expressed simply as a personal belief. I suspect this is the gist of the matter in this instance. "Experts" have been discredited it seems to me, largely by people without much of a grounding in the subject, so on the whole I tend to base what opinion I might hold on that of experts in the field under discussion. Where they disagree then it is fair enough to try to determine for oneself where the balance of probability lands.
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 07-08-2021
Some data on admissions has been released this morning that breaks down ages although not ideally because they have lumped together the 18-54 age group which is a bit wide.
For June there were 5,132 admissions in England for covid broken down by ages as follows:
0-5 - 200 (3.9%)
6-17 - 171 (3.3%)
18-54 - 2797 (54.5%)
55-64 - 566 (11%)
65-74 - 491 (9.6%)
75-84 - 526 (10.2%)
85+ - 353 (6.9%)
unknown - 28 (0.5%)
It is a difficult one to comment on because of the wide age group that is 18-54 but it does show that the majority of admissions are now in the under 55's. This could be an indication of the vaccine working well and should encourage more youngsters to get that jab, that would also indicate that without the vaccine things would be much worse already. It does highlight that under 18 admissions continue to be very low.
Again without more detail it is difficult to say how long these patients have been kept in hospital, or even have confirmation that they are all there because of covid or just with covid. I'll keep digging for more information on ages, it is available somewhere I'm sure because there is a cumulative tally by region on the gov.uk dashboard.