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+--- Thread: UK Covid death toll (/showthread.php?tid=10162)
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RE: UK Covid death toll - JOK - 07-05-2021
Just an observation following DH’s posting of those graphs.
Looking at the figures for confirmed cases, it does look pretty bad in comparison with the rest of Europe but is that as straight forward as is suggested by those graphs? I didn’t see any statistic on testing in those graphs, so I had a quick check myself and found the following:
Daily tests per Million. Up to 30th June.
Austria 41,351
U.K. 15,824
Denmark 12,165
Belgium 4,403
France 3,620
Italy 2,823
Norway 2,705
Spain 1,792
Sweden 1,502
Germany 1,203
Netherlands 774
Hungary 762
So, clearly, we are doing far more testing than many other countries. (Despite all the doom mongering about how poor and inefficient we are performing)
These figures do show that we are finding more cases per million people than some countries (i.e. U.K. 3 cases, Spain 1 case and the others less than 1 case) but the article does give the following caveat;
“Where the number of confirmed cases is high relative to the extent of testing, this suggests that there may not be enough tests being carried out to properly monitor the outbreak. In such countries, the true number of infections may be far higher than the number of confirmed cases.”
My question; doesn’t it follow that the more you test, the more confirmed cases you will find?
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing
My own view now, as someone who has followed the guidelines and rules implicitly over the last 15 months or so, is, as Kit Kat says “ normality has to return” at some point. The economy has to start moving fully again. The coffers are more than bare. As callous as it may sound and any Trekkie fan will confirm Spock’s truism ‘ Logic clearly dictates that the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few.’ Just to say, before some accuse me of being flippant, I have a wife, brother, sister-in-law and mother all in the ‘at risk’ category (and I’m on the cusp) and three of those, who are compos mentis , all are of the opinion that things should return to, as close as possible, to normality.
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 07-05-2021
I think we can safely say that we have broken the link between getting covid and dying from it, deaths are right down and although there will still be deaths the evidence shows that they have fallen to 'acceptable' level (in line with any other respiratory disease) and are certainly not causing excess deaths in the way they did last year.
Hopefully the data the KKC refers to where the pandemic is spreading across the country and burning out as it goes is correct. I'm guessing they were using the cases numbers to show that because that hasn't fed through to the hospitalisations yet, which are still increasing in each region of England. Across the whole of England we have had c.20% increase for three weeks now and, although patchy, this is reflected in the regional figures:
North East and Yorkshire: 48%; 23%; 38%
North West: 51%; 4%; 20%
Midlands: 22%; 14%; 34%
East of England: 22%; 14%; 34%
London: 10%; -1%; 13%
South West: 100%: 72%; 44%
South East: 28%; 12%; 47%
Some of the % in there will be large because they are low numbers e.g. the 100% increase in the SW was from 18 to 36. And London, Midlands and the NW have the largest numbers which will show the opposite. Overall it's still too early to say which way this will go and although I can see a good case for opening up on the 19th, getting rid of all restrictions is premature and statements like 'irreversible' are plain stupid IMO.
Hospitals across england are coping at the moment but an increase of 20% each week will put us at 5k in about 5 or 6 weeks time, if that carries on that is 10k four weeks after that and 20k three weeks after that. There isn't much room here for manoeuvre and hopefully the stats referred to by KKC flow through to the hospital numbers. The big hope is that vaccinations will mean we will have surges but they will reach a level where they can go no more because they have run out of people to infect. Fingers crossed.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Derek Hardballs - 07-05-2021
I expect every MP to be in Parliament and attending PMQs in person when they return from the ludicrously long summer break.
Oh and as an observation Israel are front runners if not leaders in vaccination reintroduced mask wearing and social distancing recently having lifted the oh so awful infringement on our lives!
I think personally we should leave drink driving up to the individuals choice.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Kit Kat Chunky - 07-05-2021
(07-05-2021, 09:18 AM)Derek Hardballs Wrote: I expect every MP to be in Parliament and attending PMQs in person when they return from the ludicrously long summer break.
Oh and as an observation Israel are front runners if not leaders in vaccination reintroduced mask wearing and social distancing recently having lifted the oh so awful infringement on our lives!
I think personally we should leave drink driving up to the individuals choice.
It's difficult to do it when you are wearing a mask
Israel has 57% of population fully vaxxed, and 62% part vaxxed, so they have a little way to go yet (as do we).
RE: UK Covid death toll - Ted Maul - 07-05-2021
Masks and social distancing in shops, public transport etc would make sense for a while yet but events that are easier to police r.e. negative testing as we saw with the cricket at Edgbaston, weddings and festivals should be allowed as 'normal' from the 19th.
I'll still wear a mask at times and won't at others. The narrative that those who don't are selfish is very unfair.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Birdman1811 - 07-05-2021
I'm exempt from wearing a mask but still do so as much as I can and will carry one with me,in case it seems best to wear it.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Derek Hardballs - 07-05-2021
![[Image: E5h7TKrWUAAfX2O?format=jpg&name=large]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E5h7TKrWUAAfX2O?format=jpg&name=large)
![[Image: E5h7Ta6XoAIxguB?format=jpg&name=large]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E5h7Ta6XoAIxguB?format=jpg&name=large)
![[Image: E5h7Tq2X0AQbVRQ?format=jpg&name=large]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E5h7Tq2X0AQbVRQ?format=jpg&name=large)
The government imo have either misjudged the public mood.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Protheroe - 07-05-2021
(07-05-2021, 04:44 PM)Derek Hardballs Wrote: The government imo have either misjudged the public mood.
Fortunately people can make their own mind up then.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Derek Hardballs - 07-05-2021
(07-05-2021, 05:09 PM)Protheroe Wrote:(07-05-2021, 04:44 PM)Derek Hardballs Wrote: The government imo have either misjudged the public mood.
Fortunately people can make their own mind up then.
Thanks for that Andrew Brigden Light…
RE: UK Covid death toll - foreveralbion - 07-05-2021
proths right though.
if you want to carry on wearing a mask then plesase do so. no one is stopping you.
i personally cant wait to see the back of them.
id wager as well that the poll above is way out.
proof will be evidenced from july 19th.
id be amazed if more than 10% still have them on in a supermarket.