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RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 02-23-2021
Week 6 (to 12th Feb) figures for deaths are now published and we are still showing a large increase on the 5YA figures (3,429) but a lower increase that it has been. There were 15,354 deaths in total in E&W in the week compared with the 5YA figure of 11,925. Sadly this means that there have been just short of 110k more deaths than normal in the past 47 weeks (since covid 1st appeared) and included in that 40k more that normal since the start of December. And just to pat some perspective, if we had taken the worst equivalent week from any of the last decade the total deaths for the 1st 6 weeks of the year would have been 83k, we stand above 105k for 2021 so far.
Overall though the increase in the number of deaths as a % is falling to just less than 30% more than normal compared with 45% above normal a couple of weeks ago.
The obvious good news is that the vaccinations are appearing effective and that should start to reflect itself in the death figures soon. Hospitalisations are just over 14k at the moment compared with the peak of 33k on the 20th Jan and some good news there is that they numbers appear to be falling at a slightly faster rate than the 1st wave. This IMO is a time that we need to be patient, it is very tempting to get carried away and rush into this but the govt have set out a sensible plan which slowly releases parts of the economy allowing us to monitor any changes that occur and attribute it to the relaxation measure just carried out.
Heading in the right direction.
RE: UK Covid death toll - backsidebaggie - 02-23-2021
Great stat work as ever Baggy1.
One thing crossed my mind. You are right to do your stats on excess deaths. Given lockdown has now been on and off for nearly a year, I believe that a proportion of excess deaths may now be down to other health factors (mental, excess drinking, deaths resulting from poorer exercise, cancer not picked up etc). I know it’s impossible to quantify that, but would you agree as time goes on these are likely to be an increasing proportion of the overall excess deaths?
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 02-23-2021
Agree that at some point that will definitely have an impact bb, problem is when as you point out. I still think that the major factor in the excess deaths is due to covid based on the numbers in hospital but it will soon cross over. I was only going to continue this for another 6 weeks to get the full year tbh and it started because the govt were changing their figures in the early part to make the figures look better. The major point that I was highlighting is the damage done in terms of deaths by the actions or inactions of the govt over the past year.
RE: UK Covid death toll - backsidebaggie - 02-23-2021
Yes I agree it’s impossible to say how much. Covid without doubt is the major factor. I guess it’s a case of whether right now the other factors are only 1%, or getting higher towards 5 or 10% or more. But yes it’s impossible to tell.
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 02-25-2021
(02-18-2021, 05:44 PM)baggy1 Wrote:(01-15-2021, 08:51 AM)baggy1 Wrote: 16th Sept - 929
23rd Sept - 1,439 (1.55 x previous week)
30th Sept - 2,036 (1.41 x pw)
7th Oct - 3,066 (1.51 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,313 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,271 (1.45 x pw)
28th Oct - 9,070 (1.45 x pw)
4th Nov - 11,037 (1.22 x pw)
11th Nov - 12,730 (1.15 x pw)
18th Nov - 14,490 (1.14 x pw)
25th Nov - 14,240 (0.98 x pw)
2nd Dec - 13,212 (0.93 x pw)
9th Dec - 13,467 (1.02 x pw)
16th Dec - 15,465 (1.15 x pw)
23rd Dec - 17,834 (1.15 x pw)
30th Dec - 22,713 (1.27 x pw)
6th Jan - 27,727 (1.22 x pw)
13th Jan - 32,689 (1.18 x pw)
20th Jan - 33,886 (1.04 x pw)
27th Jan - 30,846 (0.91 x pw)
3rd Feb - 26,374 (0.86 x pw)
10th Feb - 20,926 (0.79 x pw)
17th Feb - 16,458 (0.79 x pw)
24th Feb - 13,007 (0.79 x pw)
Almost uncannily predictable figures showing another drop by 20% in hospitalisation in England, it does give us a good way of predicting where we will be at the key upcoming dates. Mar 8th should be around 9k in hospital, end of April for the Steve Bakers of the world should see around 2k and we'll get below 1k in mid May.
Vaccinations are ploughing forward with 16.4M as of yesterday which is the equivalent of everyone over 60 having had the 1st dose administered. My only concern is fitting in the 2nd dose with the big push to get everyone done. For those of you who have had the 1st dose do you get told when the 2nd one is?
Positive news
And as if to carry on the trend we have another week of the same % drop in numbers in hospital as the previous 2 weeks. It is very steady at a 20% drop each week at the moment making it easier to predict where we are going (which appears to be the right direction). Continued like this we will see numbers below 5k by the end of March so it will be very interesting to see what happens after 8th March when the easing starts. Fingers crossed for that.
Added to that another good week for getting 1st doses being administered and we are now standing at 18.7M completed and 700k receiving their 2nd dose.
Again, positive news!
RE: UK Covid death toll - Derek Hardballs - 02-27-2021
I want the English one? Ffs!
Come on now people this is getting silly
Just be grateful we have a vaccine at all!
RE: UK Covid death toll - The liquidator - 02-28-2021
A new Brazilian variant now lol. Get jabbed up and let's get back to normality had a cunt full of this shit.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Baggie_Nick - 02-28-2021
(02-28-2021, 06:55 PM)The liquidator Wrote: A new Brazilian variant now lol. Get jabbed up and let's get back to normality had a cunt full of this shit.
What if the jabs aren't effective against this variant?
RE: UK Covid death toll - The liquidator - 03-01-2021
I've got a funny feeling that they will be.
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 03-02-2021
Week 7 figures for E&W to the 19th Feb are out and are still showing excess deaths above both the 5YA and worst year in the last decade. Compared with the 5YA the number of deaths in 2021 is 13,809 against 11,627 so just under 20% higher at 2,182 more deaths than average. The good news is that the number of excess deaths is falling back towards a normal level for this time of year. In the 48 weeks that we have seen the effects of covid we are now at 111,824 more deaths than average, that equates to 21% more than average with 5 weeks to go.
The positive news is that the older age groups appear to be fairing better at the moment, whether or not that is to do with them receiving the jab 1st is probably open to debate but it does appear to be working. The number of excess deaths in the over 85s is 754, compared with 942 in the 75-85 age group. This might just be statistical anomaly and there are still more people total died in that age group (5,310 vs 3,951) but they are nearer normal than the 75-85s and this is the 1st time I have seen that. Worth reminding that this data is only up to the 19th Feb.
Over 20M received their 1st Jab now and it's working its way down rapidly. And hospitalisations in England are down below 11k as of a couple of days ago which we haven't seen since the start of November.
Again heading in the right direction.