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+--- Thread: UK Covid death toll (/showthread.php?tid=10162)
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RE: UK Covid death toll - richbaggie - 02-10-2021
(02-10-2021, 06:23 PM)Kit Kat Chunky Wrote:(02-10-2021, 06:01 PM)richbaggie Wrote: This lockdown has really started to bite now. Groundhog day existence, a stressful job with no escape valve is having major effect on my own mental state. I'm lucky to have wife and daughter at home with me, God knows how friends I have who live at home alone are getting through this. Not seeing my granddaughter is a particular killer for me.
Thankfully, if you ignore the news but look purely at the data, we are moving steadily towards better days. I say ignore the news because they seem to continue to wallow in the negatives. An example being how they report the daily figures, comparing to day before rather than the more important 7 day comparison.
Feels like we are moving towards some minor lifting of restrictions in March with April seeing more lifted and maybe pubs by May. I can cope with that. Lockdown for anytime beyond that and people will start to not comply in huge numbers.
Not only that Rich, but seasonality will mean that numbers are low. If you tell everyone to stay at home, when you have infections of less than 1000, then you can see a mass revolt. We didn't have riots last summer, but if lockdown isn't lifted then you can see a great undercurrent of discontent (not that I would condone public unrest).
Yep, for sure. The breaking point is close for a lot of people and that could easily lead to it lighting a fuse.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Wayne The Baggie - 02-10-2021
(02-10-2021, 06:44 PM)richbaggie Wrote:(02-10-2021, 06:23 PM)Kit Kat Chunky Wrote:(02-10-2021, 06:01 PM)richbaggie Wrote: This lockdown has really started to bite now. Groundhog day existence, a stressful job with no escape valve is having major effect on my own mental state. I'm lucky to have wife and daughter at home with me, God knows how friends I have who live at home alone are getting through this. Not seeing my granddaughter is a particular killer for me.
Thankfully, if you ignore the news but look purely at the data, we are moving steadily towards better days. I say ignore the news because they seem to continue to wallow in the negatives. An example being how they report the daily figures, comparing to day before rather than the more important 7 day comparison.
Feels like we are moving towards some minor lifting of restrictions in March with April seeing more lifted and maybe pubs by May. I can cope with that. Lockdown for anytime beyond that and people will start to not comply in huge numbers.
Not only that Rich, but seasonality will mean that numbers are low. If you tell everyone to stay at home, when you have infections of less than 1000, then you can see a mass revolt. We didn't have riots last summer, but if lockdown isn't lifted then you can see a great undercurrent of discontent (not that I would condone public unrest).
Yep, for sure. The breaking point is close for a lot of people and that could easily lead to it lighting a fuse.
Bojo to set out 'the road map out of lockdown' on February 22nd. Can't see many restrictions being lifted if I'm honest.
RE: UK Covid death toll - strawman - 02-10-2021
(02-10-2021, 06:23 PM)Kit Kat Chunky Wrote:(02-10-2021, 06:01 PM)richbaggie Wrote: This lockdown has really started to bite now. Groundhog day existence, a stressful job with no escape valve is having major effect on my own mental state. I'm lucky to have wife and daughter at home with me, God knows how friends I have who live at home alone are getting through this. Not seeing my granddaughter is a particular killer for me.
Thankfully, if you ignore the news but look purely at the data, we are moving steadily towards better days. I say ignore the news because they seem to continue to wallow in the negatives. An example being how they report the daily figures, comparing to day before rather than the more important 7 day comparison.
Feels like we are moving towards some minor lifting of restrictions in March with April seeing more lifted and maybe pubs by May. I can cope with that. Lockdown for anytime beyond that and people will start to not comply in huge numbers.
Not only that Rich, but seasonality will mean that numbers are low. If you tell everyone to stay at home, when you have infections of less than 1000, then you can see a mass revolt. We didn't have riots last summer, but if lockdown isn't lifted then you can see a great undercurrent of discontent (not that I would condone public unrest).
Good job were not in Aus then - Perth had 1 case and locked the place down for 5 days
RE: UK Covid death toll - richbaggie - 02-10-2021
(02-10-2021, 06:49 PM)Wayne The Baggie Wrote:There are a few that could and should be.(02-10-2021, 06:44 PM)richbaggie Wrote:(02-10-2021, 06:23 PM)Kit Kat Chunky Wrote:(02-10-2021, 06:01 PM)richbaggie Wrote: This lockdown has really started to bite now. Groundhog day existence, a stressful job with no escape valve is having major effect on my own mental state. I'm lucky to have wife and daughter at home with me, God knows how friends I have who live at home alone are getting through this. Not seeing my granddaughter is a particular killer for me.
Thankfully, if you ignore the news but look purely at the data, we are moving steadily towards better days. I say ignore the news because they seem to continue to wallow in the negatives. An example being how they report the daily figures, comparing to day before rather than the more important 7 day comparison.
Feels like we are moving towards some minor lifting of restrictions in March with April seeing more lifted and maybe pubs by May. I can cope with that. Lockdown for anytime beyond that and people will start to not comply in huge numbers.
Not only that Rich, but seasonality will mean that numbers are low. If you tell everyone to stay at home, when you have infections of less than 1000, then you can see a mass revolt. We didn't have riots last summer, but if lockdown isn't lifted then you can see a great undercurrent of discontent (not that I would condone public unrest).
Yep, for sure. The breaking point is close for a lot of people and that could easily lead to it lighting a fuse.
Bojo to set out 'the road map out of lockdown' on February 22nd. Can't see many restrictions being lifted if I'm honest.
Golf for one!
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 02-10-2021
Problem has been taking action too late each time meant we have had to lockdown for longer. Add that we haven’t really locked down this time and had a bit of a break for Chrimbo and you can see why we are here now. Got some friends in Perth and they’ve been back to normal for ages and the 5 day lockdown is a breeze when they can see the rewards.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Tom Joad - 02-11-2021
baggy1 Wrote:Problem has been taking action too late each time meant we have had to lockdown for longer. Add that we haven’t really locked down this time and had a bit of a break for Chrimbo and you can see why we are here now. Got some friends in Perth and they’ve been back to normal for ages and the 5 day lockdown is a breeze when they can see the rewards.
I also have friends in Oz. They are as divided as us (apart from when it comes to pointing at the UK and laughing, they are pretty united there!). One was in Sydney and lost his job by stealth. The company put up his targets to an impossible figure knowing he would have to leave (he is on a visa). His partner, a senior mental health nurse that has been flat out dealing with PTSD among the bushfire victims, needed to return to England due to a family death. The (Australian)quarantine regulations, or I should say the cost of, made their minds up to stay in England. Australia's loss will definitely be our gain in this case. Others I know in Queensland reckon the whole thing was an over reaction and are dead against any more lockdowns.
I do agree though, Theirs has been a picnic compared to our last year.
RE: UK Covid death toll - backsidebaggie - 02-11-2021
(02-10-2021, 06:57 PM)richbaggie Wrote:(02-10-2021, 06:49 PM)Wayne The Baggie Wrote:There are a few that could and should be.(02-10-2021, 06:44 PM)richbaggie Wrote:(02-10-2021, 06:23 PM)Kit Kat Chunky Wrote:(02-10-2021, 06:01 PM)richbaggie Wrote: This lockdown has really started to bite now. Groundhog day existence, a stressful job with no escape valve is having major effect on my own mental state. I'm lucky to have wife and daughter at home with me, God knows how friends I have who live at home alone are getting through this. Not seeing my granddaughter is a particular killer for me.
Thankfully, if you ignore the news but look purely at the data, we are moving steadily towards better days. I say ignore the news because they seem to continue to wallow in the negatives. An example being how they report the daily figures, comparing to day before rather than the more important 7 day comparison.
Feels like we are moving towards some minor lifting of restrictions in March with April seeing more lifted and maybe pubs by May. I can cope with that. Lockdown for anytime beyond that and people will start to not comply in huge numbers.
Not only that Rich, but seasonality will mean that numbers are low. If you tell everyone to stay at home, when you have infections of less than 1000, then you can see a mass revolt. We didn't have riots last summer, but if lockdown isn't lifted then you can see a great undercurrent of discontent (not that I would condone public unrest).
Yep, for sure. The breaking point is close for a lot of people and that could easily lead to it lighting a fuse.
Bojo to set out 'the road map out of lockdown' on February 22nd. Can't see many restrictions being lifted if I'm honest.
Golf for one!
+ 10000!!
RE: UK Covid death toll - Fido - 02-11-2021
(02-10-2021, 06:57 PM)richbaggie Wrote:(02-10-2021, 06:49 PM)Wayne The Baggie Wrote:There are a few that could and should be.(02-10-2021, 06:44 PM)richbaggie Wrote:(02-10-2021, 06:23 PM)Kit Kat Chunky Wrote:(02-10-2021, 06:01 PM)richbaggie Wrote: This lockdown has really started to bite now. Groundhog day existence, a stressful job with no escape valve is having major effect on my own mental state. I'm lucky to have wife and daughter at home with me, God knows how friends I have who live at home alone are getting through this. Not seeing my granddaughter is a particular killer for me.
Thankfully, if you ignore the news but look purely at the data, we are moving steadily towards better days. I say ignore the news because they seem to continue to wallow in the negatives. An example being how they report the daily figures, comparing to day before rather than the more important 7 day comparison.
Feels like we are moving towards some minor lifting of restrictions in March with April seeing more lifted and maybe pubs by May. I can cope with that. Lockdown for anytime beyond that and people will start to not comply in huge numbers.
Not only that Rich, but seasonality will mean that numbers are low. If you tell everyone to stay at home, when you have infections of less than 1000, then you can see a mass revolt. We didn't have riots last summer, but if lockdown isn't lifted then you can see a great undercurrent of discontent (not that I would condone public unrest).
Yep, for sure. The breaking point is close for a lot of people and that could easily lead to it lighting a fuse.
Bojo to set out 'the road map out of lockdown' on February 22nd. Can't see many restrictions being lifted if I'm honest.
Golf for one!
Tennis and golf were a godsend last year. Bit too claggy and cold for the latter at the moment but have a couple of Fridays booked off in March so hope the courses are open by then.
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 02-11-2021
(02-04-2021, 05:45 PM)baggy1 Wrote:(01-15-2021, 08:51 AM)baggy1 Wrote: 16th Sept - 929
23rd Sept - 1,439 (1.55 x previous week)
30th Sept - 2,036 (1.41 x pw)
7th Oct - 3,066 (1.51 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,313 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,271 (1.45 x pw)
28th Oct - 9,070 (1.45 x pw)
4th Nov - 11,037 (1.22 x pw)
11th Nov - 12,730 (1.15 x pw)
18th Nov - 14,490 (1.14 x pw)
25th Nov - 14,240 (0.98 x pw)
2nd Dec - 13,212 (0.93 x pw)
9th Dec - 13,467 (1.02 x pw)
16th Dec - 15,465 (1.15 x pw)
23rd Dec - 17,834 (1.15 x pw)
30th Dec - 22,713 (1.27 x pw)
6th Jan - 27,727 (1.22 x pw)
13th Jan - 32,689 (1.18 x pw)
20th Jan - 33,886 (1.04 x pw)
27th Jan - 30,846 (0.91 x pw)
3rd Feb - 26,374 (0.86 x pw)
10th Feb - 20,926 (0.79 x pw)
And after the 1st full week of numbers dropping it is quite something that the % reduction is about 15% which was very similar to the % decreases from the 1st wave. It does show the correlation and gives us an ability to predict outcomes with some confidence. Based on that % we will be at around 7k in hospital by the end of March. There are currently around 26k in hospital.
It also looks like we are nearly at 5M doses of the vaccine a day which is a fantastic figure. 10.5M people with the 1st jab is equivalent to all over 70s and just less than a third of the 65-70 group. Early signs are that it is effective which is great news especially around its ability too reduce transmission.
Hospitalisations this week have come down at a slightly faster rate than it did in the 1st wave by 20% which is mainly good news and if we continue at that rate we will get below the 10k in hospital by the 10th March which is about when they are looking to ease restrictions. Other good news is that as of today the number is below 20k but not quite down to the April peak of 18.6k yet.
And with 13.5M people having received the 1st jab things are moving along nicely on the vaccinations.
RE: UK Covid death toll - LIMABAGGIE - 02-11-2021
Hope Prince Harry will be staying in a £175 a night Hotel and forced to do 10 days quarantine when he comes back for Grannies Birthday.......Fat fucking chance.