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+--- Thread: UK Covid death toll (/showthread.php?tid=10162)
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RE: UK Covid death toll - Derek Hardballs - 01-27-2021
(01-26-2021, 02:22 PM)Protheroe Wrote:(01-26-2021, 12:52 PM)baggy1 Wrote: The reporter reported what the politician said
Quite, which only illustrates the depths journalism has sunk to. Twitter doesn't have sub-editors, more's the pity.
Indeed imagine if all those client journalists who regurgitated whatever sources close to the government / Conservative party uttered had actually done their job and scrutinised them. Imagine reports may have been very different.
Can anyone now defend this governments handling of the pandemic? Over 100,000 dead and they are still trying to argue they did everything they could to protect people. Whilst the vaccine rollout is to be commended that cannot be used to whitewash out the handling of the situation.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Protheroe - 01-27-2021
(01-27-2021, 08:47 AM)Derek Hardballs Wrote: Can anyone now defend this governments handling of the pandemic? Over 100,000 dead and they are still trying to argue they did everything they could to protect people. Whilst the vaccine rollout is to be commended that cannot be used to whitewash out the handling of the situation.
I agree, but for quite different reasons. The current government should (and maybe will) be hung out to dry for closing down childrens' education.
In any event, the Tories will use Boris (and lightweights like Williamson & Hancock) as lightning rods for criticism before dumping them in favour of a photogenic centrist two years before winning the next election. Darwinism in action.
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 01-28-2021
(01-21-2021, 04:35 PM)baggy1 Wrote:(01-15-2021, 08:51 AM)baggy1 Wrote: 16th Sept - 929
23rd Sept - 1,439 (1.55 x previous week)
30th Sept - 2,036 (1.41 x pw)
7th Oct - 3,066 (1.51 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,313 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,271 (1.45 x pw)
28th Oct - 9,070 (1.45 x pw)
4th Nov - 11,037 (1.22 x pw)
11th Nov - 12,730 (1.15 x pw)
18th Nov - 14,490 (1.14 x pw)
25th Nov - 14,240 (0.98 x pw)
2nd Dec - 13,212 (0.93 x pw)
9th Dec - 13,467 (1.02 x pw)
16th Dec - 15,465 (1.15 x pw)
23rd Dec - 17,834 (1.15 x pw)
30th Dec - 22,713 (1.27 x pw)
6th Jan - 27,727 (1.22 x pw)
13th Jan - 32,689 (1.18 x pw)
20th Jan - 33,886 (1.04 x pw)
27th Jan - 30,846 (0.91 x pw)
Some good news at last, the rate of increase of those in hospital has levelled out (virtually) with an increase of just over 1k in the last week. This comes 16 days after the recent lockdown was imposed which sounds about right, I was expecting it to continue for a few more days but it appears we are at the peak. If we have the same rate of decline in numbers in hospital as the 1st wave (c0.85 pw) then that means we are looking at less than 7k by the end of March.
Add to that the vaccine rollout and it is a positive outlook for controlling the virus and hopefully learning to live with it whilst getting back to normal.
Unfortunately this won't result in the deaths reducing for a couple of weeks but it is the start of an improving situation. We need to double down on being careful for the meantime.
Following on from last weeks levelling out of those in hospital we have seen the 1st signs of the numbers dropping. This week has been pretty level with the drops occurring in the last couple of days, hopefully that will filter through to a larger % drop next week. We are a long way from even getting down to the numbers from the 1st wave but at least we are moving in the right direction. Taking a drop of 15% a week from now on we are on target to reach just over 10k in hospital by the 8th March which is the date they are talking about releasing some restrictions.
Also as of the 24th we have given the 1st dose of the vaccine to 6.64M people, this is the equivalent of everybody over 75 and nearly 30% of the over 70s (I appreciate it doesn't work like that), and there are nearly half a million who have had both doses.
Edit: as of the 27th we have given the 1st dose to nearly 7.5M people which equate to the same as above and about half of the over 70s.
So, some positive news and I'll take it no matter what.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Ossian - 01-28-2021
B1, without wishing to appear morbid, does anyone analyse the fall in hospitalised numbers between mortalities and those who are being discharged wholly or partially recovered? Hopefully it's the latter number that's accounting for the lion's share of the downturn.
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 01-29-2021
I did try and look at this a while ago Oss but didn't get very far with it. There is data but they don't publish the covid discharges, possibly because it could be a bit disheartening but more likely that it is too difficult to be accurate with.
There will be a delay on the data that we have because some of it will be in the weekly ONS data which is always 11 days behind but from the bits we have we know the numbers in hospital on the 8th Jan - 29,346 and we have the admissions for the week up to the 15th as 26,130 and the numbers in hospital on the 15th - 33,362 which means that 22,114 have either died or walked out. The ONS data shows that hospital deaths in that week were 5,034 which indicates that 17,080 have been discharged in England in the week to the 15th.
There's probably some better way of calculating the figure and something that's a bit more up to date but I'll try and get a figure for the w/e 22nd when the figures come out on Tuesday.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Derek Hardballs - 01-29-2021
Since Christmas our neighbours (6) have caught the virus, four friends have caught the bug. None of them were foolish and took unnecessary risk all of them caught it from the work place. Out of those ten I’d say three are ‘key workers’ the rest have been required to go to work but you really couldn’t call their jobs essential. I’m less than convinced that we are as yet on top of the virus.
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 01-29-2021
Looking back at the figures from 16th Sept when numbers were low (929) there have been 180,946 admissions in England and the number in hospital at the 15th was 33,362 therefore 148,513 have left one way or another. Deaths in hospital in that period were 29,340 which means that 119,173 have left through the front door which equates to 80% recovering once being in hospital.
There have to be a lot of disclaimers in that figure because of how the deaths were registered or if I've used all of the correct data. I've taken just hospitals on the face of it and not used care home deaths or any that maybe left hospital to die at home (unlikely). But on the whole those have to be seen as positive saying that for every 5 people that go in 4 will recover and leave but still sad that 1 person in 5 that go in won't come out alive.
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 01-29-2021
(01-29-2021, 09:41 AM)Derek Hardballs Wrote: Since Christmas our neighbours (6) have caught the virus, four friends have caught the bug. None of them were foolish and took unnecessary risk all of them caught it from the work place. Out of those ten I’d say three are ‘key workers’ the rest have been required to go to work but you really couldn’t call their jobs essential. I’m less than convinced that we are as yet on top of the virus.
I'd agree Dekka, there is a long way to go but the lockdown has stopped the increase in those going into hospital, and the vaccines will hopefully go a long way to reducing the numbers further. I don't think we can relax when we get the 1st wave of vaccines delivered because the under 50s will still be contracting and spreading it. Until we get the majority of the population vaccinated it will be difficult to open up properly, and even then it will be baby steps.
I think we are heading in the right direction though.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Ossian - 01-29-2021
I hope I'm right in this, but I sense that the new mood in the government is to err on the side of caution, regardless of any media or backbench pressure.
It doesn't spare them from criticism for earlier failings but it's something to get behind for the present.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Tom Joad - 01-29-2021
Ossian Wrote:I hope I'm right in this, but I sense that the new mood in the government is to err on the side of caution, regardless of any media or backbench pressure.
It doesn't spare them from criticism for earlier failings but it's something to get behind for the present.
That's how I see it Oss. Doris saying he would LIKE to open the schools in March but not being drawn into the "When will you relax the lockdown" is good news. Definitely a move away from the Give 'em what they want policy previously pursued.