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You know it's JUST a stat for a prediction, I know it's JUST a stat for prediction - but it is not presented as such.

That's my beef, Dear.

Being so glib about people's livelihoods isn't a good look either.
(12-11-2020, 09:53 AM)Protheroe Wrote: [ -> ]You know it's JUST a stat for a prediction, I know it's JUST a stat for prediction - but it is not presented as such.

That's my beef, Dear.

Being so glib about people's livelihoods isn't a good look either.

Not my beef, you make out that their decision was based solely on this when you know full well it wasn't. And as to the glib comment, don't be a prick - I've said all along that this has been a fuck up by the government who have made shockingly bad decision after bad decision which has put us in this position, there isn't a short cut out of this.
(12-10-2020, 06:50 PM)Baggie_Nick Wrote: [ -> ]Yes listened to Hancock who's seems terrified about London and its plummet into tier 3 and is desperate to get all school kids tested there as he stated that they won't close schools.

Wish he'd have done that around here in Sandwell when our cases were shooting as many have been forced to close for weeks on end.

We were also promised mass testing a we are in tier three - no sign as yet.

From early September infection and mortality rates began to climb again; four weeks of partial lockdown doesn't appear to have had significant impact.

Schools remaining open - however desirable as an objective - obviously plays a big part in transmission rates. The politicians could at least be honest about that, except there would then be a reasonable expectation that they would have a strategy for mitigating the effects.
(12-11-2020, 10:10 AM)baggy1 Wrote: [ -> ]
(12-11-2020, 09:53 AM)Protheroe Wrote: [ -> ]You know it's JUST a stat for a prediction, I know it's JUST a stat for prediction - but it is not presented as such.

That's my beef, Dear.

Being so glib about people's livelihoods isn't a good look either.

Not my beef, you make out that their decision was based solely on this when you know full well it wasn't. And as to the glib comment, don't be a prick - I've said all along that this has been a fuck up by the government who have made shockingly bad decision after bad decision which has put us in this position, there isn't a short cut out of this.

"businesses will recover or start up again where there is a need, pubs will reopen, people will get new jobs" sounds pretty glib to me.
My observations, (and this is my experience of our area alone).
I knew  and heard of many that got the virus 1st time around. I have friends that lost  parents,  customers that lost relatives (including one, a fitness fanatic just turned 60), and neighbours that were admitted to ICU.
This time around I have just one close friend that has had the virus recently.She has underlying conditions so we are all relieved she described it as being like the worst flu you could get. I have also heard of a number of relatives and friends that have had to isolate due to contacts and just one customers relative.  (All from work,  or particularly from working in a school).
I have also lost a close relative due to  suffering from a long illness. Although Covid was absolutely not present (hospital testing etc.), the next of kin wasn't best pleased when the office bod at the hospital suggested she might put Covid as cause of death as the symptoms were similar. Make of that what you will.
I can't draw any conclusions from any medical knowledge but FROM MY EXPERIENCE, it appears the virus is perhaps milder than before. The treatments are better than before. Our knowledge of avoiding it is better, and we must surely be benefiting from less colds and flus.  Plus, sadly, it may be the easy option to blame Covid to fast track the processing of the recently deceased?
Stating the obvious I know,  I'm thinking that if we can avoid complacency, the way out is now visible. Also, whether anyone likes it or not, the hospitality sector (pubs, restautants as opposed to large crowd gatherings), has only a very minor role in the spread of the virus. We ain't far away, just be careful not to become that poor soldier that got shot on the final day of the war.
(12-11-2020, 12:30 PM)Protheroe Wrote: [ -> ]
(12-11-2020, 10:10 AM)baggy1 Wrote: [ -> ]
(12-11-2020, 09:53 AM)Protheroe Wrote: [ -> ]You know it's JUST a stat for a prediction, I know it's JUST a stat for prediction - but it is not presented as such.

That's my beef, Dear.

Being so glib about people's livelihoods isn't a good look either.

Not my beef, you make out that their decision was based solely on this when you know full well it wasn't. And as to the glib comment, don't be a prick - I've said all along that this has been a fuck up by the government who have made shockingly bad decision after bad decision which has put us in this position, there isn't a short cut out of this.

"businesses will recover or start up again where there is a need, pubs will reopen, people will get new jobs" sounds pretty glib to me.

Glib - fluent but insincere or shallow

That may fit any Tory that gets near a microphone but I can't see how it's applied to anything I've said. If only you applied the same logic to the damage brexit will cause.

(12-11-2020, 01:42 PM)Tom Joad Wrote: [ -> ]My observations, (and this is my experience of our area alone).
I knew  and heard of many that got the virus 1st time around. I have friends that lost  parents,  customers that lost relatives (including one, a fitness fanatic just turned 60), and neighbours that were admitted to ICU.
This time around I have just one close friend that has had the virus recently.She has underlying conditions so we are all relieved she described it as being like the worst flu you could get. I have also heard of a number of relatives and friends that have had to isolate due to contacts and just one customers relative.  (All from work,  or particularly from working in a school).
I have also lost a close relative due to  suffering from a long illness. Although Covid was absolutely not present (hospital testing etc.), the next of kin wasn't best pleased when the office bod at the hospital suggested she might put Covid as cause of death as the symptoms were similar. Make of that what you will.
I can't draw any conclusions from any medical knowledge but FROM MY EXPERIENCE, it appears the virus is perhaps milder than before. The treatments are better than before. Our knowledge of avoiding it is better, and we must surely be benefiting from less colds and flus.  Plus, sadly, it may be the easy option to blame Covid to fast track the processing of the recently deceased?
Stating the obvious I know,  I'm thinking that if we can avoid complacency, the way out is now visible. Also, whether anyone likes it or not, the hospitality sector (pubs, restautants as opposed to large crowd gatherings), has only a very minor role in the spread of the virus. We ain't far away, just be careful not to become that poor soldier that got shot on the final day of the war.

Which part of the country are you Tom? I think you are correct, hospitalisations are nearly as high as the 1st wave but, gladly, deaths are nowhere near - In six weeks in April and May we had 40k excess deaths, we've had about 10k in the last 6 weeks measured. One of the biggest mistakes was the imaginary ring of steel around care homes, that is where the real problem was caused. Putting untested old folk into communal environments to free up beds was a major fuck up. 

I also get the comment around the 'whats on the death cert' which is why I only ever look at what is above and beyond the normal amounts to get a better read, the govt has tried to use different stats to prove different points in comparison with other countries throughout this.

And agree entirely with the point about being nearly there, we have a few months of pain to endure and then we can start to rebuild.
Re Baggie1. I'm in Brum, family in the Black Country. I've no axe to grind either way, just thought I'd put my experience out there . I suppose I fall somewhere in the middle of the scale between the Lockdown Tight Brigade and the Throw the Doors Open Group. I do think, complacency could hold us back now, it's easy to slip into that. But I'm also looking at the fact that whatever we do, as long as schools and unis are open-and I suppose they need to be, there will be transmission.
As much as proth would like you to think otherwise I am keen to reopen businesses and get back to normal, but the way that we have let it get out of control is down to the govt introducing late lockdowns, decanting covid patients into the worst environments and being generally apathetic. We could have handled this much better with locking down early at appropriate times (half terms) and not pandering to the libertarians who struggled with masks and not being able to supp a pint in their locals on a Friday night.
baggy1 Wrote:As much as proth would like you to think otherwise I am keen to reopen businesses and get back to normal, but the way that we have let it get out of control is down to the govt introducing late lockdowns, decanting covid patients into the worst environments and being generally apathetic. We could have handled this much better with locking down early at appropriate times (half terms) and not pandering to the libertarians who struggled with masks and not being able to supp a pint in their locals on a Friday night.

Well much as I agree with many of your posts, having a quiet pint is not a significant factor in the spread. The graph I saw had hospitality as a  3% contribution. I can imagine a few venues not being too careful but these maybe ought to have been the ones to close. Closing the couple of locals I frequent probably hasn't changed a fat lot other than push them towards insolvency. Just my onions, obviously.
(12-11-2020, 06:33 PM)Tom Joad Wrote: [ -> ]
baggy1 Wrote:As much as proth would like you to think otherwise I am keen to reopen businesses and get back to normal, but the way that we have let it get out of control is down to the govt introducing late lockdowns, decanting covid patients into the worst environments and being generally apathetic. We could have handled this much better with locking down early at appropriate times (half terms) and not pandering to the libertarians who struggled with masks and not being able to supp a pint in their locals on a Friday night.

Well much as I agree with many of your posts, having a quiet pint is not a significant factor in the spread. The graph I saw had hospitality as a  3% contribution. I can imagine a few venues not being too careful but these maybe ought to have been the ones to close. Closing the couple of locals I frequent probably hasn't changed a fat lot other than push them towards insolvency. Just my onions, obviously.

Round where I am the pubs have been atrocious generally. Not that I've been to many but I've seen the complete flouting of social distancing and large groups of people sitting together. When I've walked past mainly.

For me, in my locality, they haven't enforced it. And having a tub of sanitiser and a scrap of A4 where you can, if you want to, put your actual details.

Perhaps this isn't a big factor but pubs near me, in general, haven't given a fuck.

Tilted Barrel
Waggon and Horses
Legends

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