Bo Jo has got it.
(03-28-2020, 10:20 PM)fuzzbox Wrote:
(03-28-2020, 10:16 PM)Pickle Rick Wrote: They declared a global emergency but you need to look beyond  those two words at what that meant and what they advised before saying governments didn't act on it - there was no prediction of what was to befall Europe then and no call for lockdowns or even stopping travel to China. There were no deaths outside of China.  The pandemic being decalred is of more significance- this was on 11 March. Things have moved very fast in recent weeks as WHO themselves say. I am not sure it is fair to say we did  not  have  basic preparations in place either, but things could be better. They are better in some countries and worse in others.

What preparations did we have in place?

Who declared it a pandemic? Was that the WHO again? Could we not do anything until they said so? We seem to have given them a lot of authority....it's only fair they should take the blame. But like the WHO said, things have moved very fast. Oh well.

Thats ok - I don't really want to have to defend all the government hss done (or not) as it is only OTT criticism I object to - but they enacted legislation as early as 10th February and I assume in all the meetings they had before then and since plans were made and discussed including preparation for an upsurge in cases. WHO declared it a pandemic yes, in March - probably the Italy crisis triggered this (my opinion).
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And my sister-in-law working with no proper protective equipment in late March - is this allowed to be mentioned and considered reasonable that the people may have seen that as necessary sooner? Or is that on the mod OTT/banned/point scoring list? Just for clarity like.
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(03-28-2020, 10:39 PM)HeathAyIt Wrote: And my sister-in-law working with no proper protective equipment in late March - is this allowed to be mentioned and considered reasonable that the people may have seen that as necessary sooner? Or is that on the mod OTT/banned/point scoring list? Just for clarity like.

You can mention what you want - nothing has bern banned and no modding has taken place - you can keep peddling this line but it still won't be true through repetition  You continue to try and score personal points rather than debate - this is the pollution surely? Why not grow up and accept there are different views to yours and you don't need to insult those who disagree. More PPE is needed and I do not agree with everything the government is doing or when, but I don't blame them for the virus or predicting its spread based on the information they have had and when they had it. I can see no benefits in peddling that line either.
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(03-28-2020, 10:35 PM)Pickle Rick Wrote:
(03-28-2020, 10:20 PM)fuzzbox Wrote:
(03-28-2020, 10:16 PM)Pickle Rick Wrote: They declared a global emergency but you need to look beyond  those two words at what that meant and what they advised before saying governments didn't act on it - there was no prediction of what was to befall Europe then and no call for lockdowns or even stopping travel to China. There were no deaths outside of China.  The pandemic being decalred is of more significance- this was on 11 March. Things have moved very fast in recent weeks as WHO themselves say. I am not sure it is fair to say we did  not  have  basic preparations in place either, but things could be better. They are better in some countries and worse in others.

What preparations did we have in place?

Who declared it a pandemic? Was that the WHO again? Could we not do anything until they said so? We seem to have given them a lot of authority....it's only fair they should take the blame. But like the WHO said, things have moved very fast. Oh well.

Thats ok - I don't really want to have to defend all the government hss done (or not) as it is only OTT criticism I object to - but they enacted legislation as early as 10th February and I assume in all the meetings they had before then and since plans were made and discussed including preparation for an upsurge in cases. WHO declared it a pandemic yes, in March - probably the Italy crisis triggered this (my opinion).
I think my irony was too ambiguous re. your over-reliance on the WHO!

You say that nobody foresaw what COULD happen in January. But I have to wonder.

Surely there was a government (not conservative) department who is supposed to take notice of these things?

when the news was on the television in January, I assume they had government staff watching it?
Surely we have people on the streets in China, in embassies, people in economic relations and people talking to the Chinese government?

I'm just a pissant proletarian, so it's understandable I had minimal knowledge of this. It's not my job. But how can the government not know?
It seems really unlikely that there wasn't a department reporting on this that said, you know, we're not sure what's going on exactly, but it ain't looking good. Perhaps we should put some urgent TANGIBLE planning in place - just in case.

If there wasn't - that's a mistake.
If we ignored it - that's a mistake
If we didn't do anything because nobody else did - that's a mistake
If we just relied on the WHO and the Chinese government - that's a mistake.

When the first case hit Europe, surely those plans - if we had any - should have, at the very very latest, have sprung into action then? They didn't, so I'm making the assumption we didn't have any. If they did have actionable plans already in place, I can't think why they would have waited.

To make the criteria of culpability for a government being whether a bloke on a football forum knew back in January, well maybe it's my fault and I expect too much from the government.
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(03-28-2020, 10:51 PM)fuzzbox Wrote:
(03-28-2020, 10:35 PM)Pickle Rick Wrote:
(03-28-2020, 10:20 PM)fuzzbox Wrote:
(03-28-2020, 10:16 PM)Pickle Rick Wrote: They declared a global emergency but you need to look beyond  those two words at what that meant and what they advised before saying governments didn't act on it - there was no prediction of what was to befall Europe then and no call for lockdowns or even stopping travel to China. There were no deaths outside of China.  The pandemic being decalred is of more significance- this was on 11 March. Things have moved very fast in recent weeks as WHO themselves say. I am not sure it is fair to say we did  not  have  basic preparations in place either, but things could be better. They are better in some countries and worse in others.

What preparations did we have in place?

Who declared it a pandemic? Was that the WHO again? Could we not do anything until they said so? We seem to have given them a lot of authority....it's only fair they should take the blame. But like the WHO said, things have moved very fast. Oh well.

Thats ok - I don't really want to have to defend all the government hss done (or not) as it is only OTT criticism I object to - but they enacted legislation as early as 10th February and I assume in all the meetings they had before then and since plans were made and discussed including preparation for an upsurge in cases. WHO declared it a pandemic yes, in March - probably the Italy crisis triggered this (my opinion).

You say that nobody foresaw what COULD happen in January. But I have to wonder.

Surely there was a government (not conservative) department who is supposed to take notice of these things?

when the news was on the television in January, I assume they had government staff watching it?
Surely we have people on the streets in China, in embassies, on economic relations and talking to the Chinese government?

I'm just a pissant proteletarian, so it's understandable I had minimal knowledge of this. It's not my job. But how can the government not know?
It seems really unlikely that there wasn't a department reporting on this that said, you know, we're not sure what's going on exactly, but it ain't looking good. Perhaps we should put some urgent planning in place - just in case.

If there wasn't - that's a mistake.
If we ignored it - that's a mistake
If we didn't do anything because nobody else did - that's a mistake
If we just relied on the WHO and the chinese government - that's a mistake.

To make the criteria of culpability for a government being whether a bloke on a football forum knew, well maybe it's my fault and I expect too much from the government.
Well they have their own advisors and so did Italy and other governments I am sure - I don't think they or WHO saw this being the disaster it is in Europe until Italy cases soared - my opinion. 
I am not making any criteria for culpability bar my own opinion of what is fair in that regard, but I see no evidence folk being wise in hindsight knew more than the scientific advisors either. Even if they did the governments have to chose who they listen to when there are dissenting voices and act on that.  Perhaps sometimes it is the minority or a lone voice that gets it right and are not listened to. I don't myself blame the government here or Italy etc for listening to who they thought was the best voice. Hard to know how much of the mayhem could have been stopped if someone else (who?) had been the advisors.
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(03-28-2020, 11:07 PM)Pickle Rick Wrote: Well they have their own advisors and so did Italy and other governments I am sure - I don't think they or WHO saw this being the disaster it is in Europe until Italy cases soared - my opinion. 
I am not making any criteria for culpability bar my own opinion of what is fair in that regard, but I see no evidence folk being wise in hindsight knew more than the scientific advisors either. Even if they did the governments have to chose who they listen to when there are dissenting voices and act on that.  Perhaps sometimes it is the minority or a lone voice that gets it right and are not listened to. I don't myself blame the government here or Italy etc for listening to who they thought was the best voice. Hard to know how much of the mayhem could have been stopped if someone else (who?) had been the advisors.

But isn't it the job of the government to put those advisers in place? It's as if you're saying they have no control on gathering information or putting an intelligence network in place. Or even, it's not their fault when they listen to the wrong ones.

Scientists are not omniscient, they need data. For whatever reason, they didn't get that data (and I think we know why). That's where you need a government intelligence network. Without it scientists won't know anything. So whether a scientist knew definitively is irrelevant. How could they? They were mostly guessing! But the government scientists, that's different, they should have had the information. So we either had the information or we didn't. I suspect we did. I don't believe our intelligence on China is that shoddy. At least, I hope not.

Which brings me to your over-reliance on WHO. I admit it's hindsight, but looking back I think most people will say they were never qualified to go into China and accurately report what's going on. I'm sure that over the next few years the WHO will say the same thing! I really do think national governments should have been aware of its limitations.

You're just going back to using the 'it wasn't just us that got it wrong' argument. It doesn't make it right that we're not alone in being wrong.
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(03-28-2020, 11:22 PM)fuzzbox Wrote:
(03-28-2020, 11:07 PM)Pickle Rick Wrote: Well they have their own advisors and so did Italy and other governments I am sure - I don't think they or WHO saw this being the disaster it is in Europe until Italy cases soared - my opinion. 
I am not making any criteria for culpability bar my own opinion of what is fair in that regard, but I see no evidence folk being wise in hindsight knew more than the scientific advisors either. Even if they did the governments have to chose who they listen to when there are dissenting voices and act on that.  Perhaps sometimes it is the minority or a lone voice that gets it right and are not listened to. I don't myself blame the government here or Italy etc for listening to who they thought was the best voice. Hard to know how much of the mayhem could have been stopped if someone else (who?) had been the advisors.

But isn't it the job of the government to put those advisers in place? It's as if you're saying they have no control on gathering information or putting an intelligence network in place. Or even, it's not their fault when they listen to the wrong ones.

I really don't understand why you put so much stall in the WHO. I admit it's hindsight, but looking back I think most people will say they were never qualified to go into China and accurately report what's going on. I'm sure that over the next few years the WHO will say the same thing! It's hindsight from me, but I really do think national governments should have been aware of its limitations.

You're just going back to using the 'it wasn't just us that got it wrong' argument. It doesn't make it right that we're not alone in being wrong.

I dont think WHO got it right all the time at all, but the argument of some is the government listened to their own advisors and did not heed WHO sometimes and that this was wrong. You can say of course that whomever picks the advisors is culpable if the advisors get it wrong. I'm not sure how you pick the best ones and it is probably on reputation, experience etc and certainly also needs to be looked it if it is judged they didn't get it right. I dont myself think there always has to be someone to blame especially for something like a new disease spreading, nor what is the wrong or right responses as they try to understand it. What would have been the right response and when for example for each country? If I were certain I knew that I may be quicker myself to say who was wrong in various ways and why. But of course I cant know that and I don't feel I have to be apportioning blame when it may be they did the right things based on information available. Like you say, this may have been far from.perfect in China and how do you fix that?
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(03-28-2020, 11:45 PM)Pickle Rick Wrote: I dont think WHO got it right all the time at all, but the argument of some is the government listened to their own advisors and did not heed WHO sometimes and that this was wrong. You can say of course that whomever picks the advisors is culpable if the advisors get it wrong. I'm not sure how you pick the best ones and it is probably on reputation, experience etc and certainly also needs to be looked it if it is judged they didn't get it right. I dont myself think there always has to be someone to blame especially for something like a new disease spreading, nor what is the wrong or right responses as they try to understand it. What would have been the right response and when for example for each country? If I were certain I knew that I may be quicker myself to say who was wrong in various ways and why. But of course I cant know that and I don't feel I have to be apportioning blame when it may be they did the right things based on information available. Like you say, this may have been far from.perfect in China and how do you fix that?

I agree with what you're saying. BUT(!) you're still assuming the government only knew as much as scientists with no data. Personally, I don't believe that. I would like to think they have enough intelligence in China to know more than the scientific community. If they don't, that's a real worry!

In addition, Quite a few leading business people sold a LOT of shares in Jan. (Bezo, 3.4 billion. https://www.theguardian.com/business/202...9-collapse)
It might be a coincidence, but maybe they also knew from their contacts or intelligence networks in China...

Assuming they did know, you would think there should at least have been some tangible plans in place much earlier. I just can't see them.

You're right, sometimes there's nobody to blame if you think that it's reasonable that nobody could have foreseen it. You think they couldn't have and I understand that. I kind of hope they could have, because if we really don't know what is happening in a major urban area of China that's even more worrying to me.



Personally, with absolutely no evidence, I reckon we (and Europe and the US) had a fair idea of what was happening and what COULD happen. I think they gambled it probably wouldn't come here based on previous outbrakes of other diseases and what China told them. The alternative was to create a panic and tank the economy for what could have been perceived as 'no reason'. Obviously, that would get them in the shit. Even more than if the virus came and ruined the economy. At least that wouldn't be their fault. In fact, the only outcome that had a chance of not ruining the economy was doing nothing and the virus not coming here. So, they waited and waited and hoped China could contain it as no doubt, they said they could. So to avoid attention, they kept their concerns quiet. There were no emergency measures in place, just in case it leaked and started a panic.

Eventually they closed their eyes to what was happening and chose to believe whatever China said - because they desperately wanted to. Then, like the WHO said, it escalated so fast that our time-frame to actually do something had gone.

And here we are, listening to Churchillian speeches from BJ, Napoleonic speeches from EM and god knows what weirdness from DT.

For clarity. Again, would Labour have done any different? No. Would any government relying on the markets? Probably not.

Far-fetched? Possibly. But not as far-fetched as believing the USA doesn't know what's going on in city of 11 million people that not only belongs to its biggest global rival, but is also it's biggest trading partner.
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(03-29-2020, 12:12 AM)fuzzbox Wrote:
(03-28-2020, 11:45 PM)Pickle Rick Wrote: I dont think WHO got it right all the time at all, but the argument of some is the government listened to their own advisors and did not heed WHO sometimes and that this was wrong. You can say of course that whomever picks the advisors is culpable if the advisors get it wrong. I'm not sure how you pick the best ones and it is probably on reputation, experience etc and certainly also needs to be looked it if it is judged they didn't get it right. I dont myself think there always has to be someone to blame especially for something like a new disease spreading, nor what is the wrong or right responses as they try to understand it. What would have been the right response and when for example for each country? If I were certain I knew that I may be quicker myself to say who was wrong in various ways and why. But of course I cant know that and I don't feel I have to be apportioning blame when it may be they did the right things based on information available. Like you say, this may have been far from.perfect in China and how do you fix that?

I agree with what you're saying. BUT(!) you're still assuming the government only knew as much as scientists with no data. Personally, I don't believe that. I would like to think they have enough intelligence in China to know more than the scientific community. If they don't, that's a real worry!

In addition, Quite a few leading business people sold a LOT of shares in Jan. (Bezo, 3.4 billion. https://www.theguardian.com/business/202...9-collapse)
It might be a coincidence, but maybe they also knew from their contacts or intelligence networks in China...

Assuming they did know, you would think there should at least have been some tangible plans in place much earlier. I just can't see them.

You're right, sometimes there's nobody to blame if you think that it's reasonable that nobody could have foreseen it. You think they couldn't have and I understand that. I kind of hope they could have, because if we really don't know what is happening in a major urban area of China that's even more worrying to me.



Personally, with absolutely no evidence, I reckon we (and Europe and the US) had a fair idea of what was happening and what COULD happen. I think they gambled it probably wouldn't come here based on previous outbrakes of other diseases and what China told them. The alternative was to create a panic and tank the economy for what could have been perceived as 'no reason'. Obviously, that would get them in the shit. Even more than if the virus came and ruined the economy. At least that wouldn't be their fault. In fact, the only outcome that had a chance of not ruining the economy was doing nothing and the virus not coming here. So, they waited and waited and hoped China could contain it as no doubt, they said they could. So to avoid attention, they kept their concerns quiet. There were no emergency measures in place, just in case it leaked and started a panic.

Eventually they closed their eyes to what was happening and chose to believe whatever China said  - because they desperately wanted to. Then, like the WHO said, it escalated so fast that our time-frame to actually do something had gone.

And here we are, listening to Churchillian speeches from BJ, Napoleonic speeches from EM and god knows what weirdness from DT.

For clarity. Again, would Labour have done any different? No. Would any government relying on the markets? Probably not.

Far-fetched? Possibly. But not as far-fetched as believing the USA doesn't know what's going on in city of 11 million people that not only belongs to its biggest global rival, but is also it's biggest trading partner.

I certainly think you are right on a large degree of wait and see and gambling plus modelling on previous outbreaks (politicians and maybe advisors  too) and fear over economic impact if they closed borders - I bet that happens quicker next time.
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(03-28-2020, 07:41 PM)HeathAyIt Wrote:
(03-28-2020, 07:36 PM)fbaggy Wrote:
(03-28-2020, 07:34 PM)Pickle Rick Wrote:
(03-28-2020, 07:31 PM)Derek Hardballs Wrote:
(03-28-2020, 07:22 PM)HeathAyIt Wrote: Doesnt fit the script on here. How dare you suggest anything could have been done better when the nation should be blindly going with the doctrine. If you can't produce a WHO document from early January you must be fabricating it all.

We are where we are and I pray we start to see some light at the end of a hideous tunnel over the next month or so and I recognise and respect the monumental task that the government and experts have. That said we don’t need to rewrite history on things that are already in the public domain.
Thats what i said. Why re write history about the extent of the virus end of January? No deaths outside China, 200 odd in China, WHO advice not to stop travelling to China. Why pretend you saw what no one else did back then and the UK government should have? Utter bollocks.

try here https://www.who.int/ith/en/

(03-28-2020, 07:34 PM)HeathAyIt Wrote:
(03-28-2020, 07:31 PM)fbaggy Wrote:
(03-28-2020, 07:22 PM)HeathAyIt Wrote: Doesnt fit the script on here. How dare you suggest anything could have been done better when the nation should be blindly going with the doctrine. If you can't produce a WHO document from early January you must be fabricating it all.

Can you please direct me to the government advice that outlines "herd immunity" as the strategy, I've got 3 weeks so no rush on that

The government’s “nudge unit” seems to favour this strategy. Dr David Halpern, a psychologist who heads the Behavioural Insights Team, said on BBC News: “There’s going to be a point, assuming the epidemic flows and grows, as we think it probably will do, where you’ll want to cocoon, you’ll want to protect those at-risk groups so that they basically don’t catch the disease and by the time they come out of their cocooning, herd immunity’s been achieved in the rest of the population.”

Erm nice try but that's a comment from a Psychologist and last time I checked they don't tend to lead strategy on epidemics

You do understand that the team is multi-disciplinary? And these are the words of a member of that team.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/a...unravelled

Overview of the fact that we were following a disastrous herd policy and all the subsequent issues that we are still running round addressing now.
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