Thread Rating:
  • 0 Vote(s) - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
Manufacturing PMI
#11
My figures are Markit PMI it's the generally accepted measure darling.
Reply
#12
(09-18-2017, 07:32 PM)Protheroe Wrote: My figures are Markit PMI it's the generally accepted measure darling.

Keep clutching those straws.
Reply
#13
How about Retail Sales rising for the 52nd month in a row?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41330813
Reply
#14
How about a reducing budget deficit?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41345631

So, let's get this right:
Manufacturing - Growing Fast
Services - Growing
Retail Sales - Growing
Deficit - Falling
Unemployment - Non existent
Currency - Stable
Stock Market - Flying
Foreign Direct Investment - Highest Ever

Are there any other straws you'd like me to clutch at?
Reply
#15
(09-21-2017, 09:48 AM)Protheroe Wrote: How about a reducing budget deficit?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41345631

So, let's get this right:
Manufacturing - Growing Fast
Services - Growing
Retail Sales - Growing
Deficit - Falling
Unemployment - Non existent
Currency - Stable
Stock Market - Flying
Foreign Direct Investment - Highest Ever

Are there any other straws you'd like me to clutch at?

Brexit can only be judged in decades time...there are still many warning signs ahead like what type of agreement your dysfunctional crew can negotiate with 27 separate countries who increasingly have many other priorities than what the UK want.
Reply
#16
I was promised a "profound & immediate shock". I must say I'm disappointed if I now have to wait decades.
Reply
#17
(09-21-2017, 10:50 AM)Bratislava Baggie Wrote:
(09-21-2017, 09:48 AM)Protheroe Wrote: How about a reducing budget deficit?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41345631

So, let's get this right:
Manufacturing - Growing Fast
Services - Growing
Retail Sales - Growing
Deficit - Falling
Unemployment - Non existent
Currency - Stable
Stock Market - Flying
Foreign Direct Investment - Highest Ever

Are there any other straws you'd like me to clutch at?

Brexit can only be judged in decades time

Correct. Yet many on here, yourself included, still try and attribute any bit of negativity to it...
Reply
#18
(09-21-2017, 11:24 AM)Protheroe Wrote: I was promised a "profound & immediate shock". I must say I'm disappointed if I now have to wait decades.

Labour productivity - the most important stat of them all as it's the key driver of peoples wages:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabo.../a4ym/prdy

It has been flat since 2008.

Fiscal expansion via a public investment bank →reduces underemployment→economy starts to recover→interest rates rise due to the inflationary pressure→kill off zombie companies→ firms substitute capital for labourUK productivity growth starts to rise→peoples living standards start to rise.

Clearly this mechanism would work better if we weren't leaving the EU, and it may have started sooner if Osborne hadn't have done austerity.
Reply
#19
(09-21-2017, 01:01 PM)logic1 Wrote: Interest rates rise due to the inflationary pressure→kill off zombie companies→ firms substitute capital for labourUK productivity growth starts to rise→peoples living standards start to rise.

In a period of growth and full employment you don't need the first three parts at all.

(09-21-2017, 12:35 PM)Malcolm Tucker Wrote: Correct. Yet many on here, yourself included, still try and attribute any bit of negativity to it...

It's the new standard get out clause. "I'll be proved right in 50 years" has replaced "We haven't left yet"
Reply
#20
(09-21-2017, 01:21 PM)Protheroe Wrote:
(09-21-2017, 01:01 PM)logic1 Wrote: Interest rates rise due to the inflationary pressure→kill off zombie companies→ firms substitute capital for labourUK productivity growth starts to rise→peoples living standards start to rise.

In a period of growth and full employment you don't need the first three parts at all.

(09-21-2017, 12:35 PM)Malcolm Tucker Wrote: Correct. Yet many on here, yourself included, still try and attribute any bit of negativity to it...

It's the new standard get out clause. "I'll be proved right in 50 years" has replaced "We haven't left yet"

Sorry, we are just not in a period of per-capita income growth. You are mixing up GDP vs. GDP per capita again which is still way below the 2-3 percent trend (there might be reasons for supposing that this trend is now different however). If the economy was at full employment then there would be significant earnings growth. There is no evidence of that. The Inflation at present is caused by the £ depreciation. I expect this to be temporary and fizzle out. Hence why we don't have an increase in interest rates. The only MPC members who are signaling a rate rise are former bankers who want to look after their mates in the city.

It is well worth reading this which basically backs up what I have just said. 


https://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk
Reply


Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)