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FAO Brexiteers, Brexit Bus Terminus
#31
(05-21-2017, 08:41 AM)Mandown_Pilt Wrote:
(05-20-2017, 07:18 AM)Donegal Wrote:
(05-19-2017, 09:37 AM)chasetownbaggie Wrote:
(05-18-2017, 03:17 PM)Protheroe Wrote:
(05-18-2017, 03:10 PM)John Osbourne Wrote: For us to have the same access to their markets as they do to ours. Obviously the lower the tariff the better for both parties but if they wish to put a 20% tariff on our £240 billion worth of goods then we reciprocate on their £302 Billion worth into the UK so be it. (2016 figures Full Fact)
I would hope that the negotiators and politicos on both sides would see sense though the rhetoric coming from over the channel, IF reported correctly, does seem to suggest that an element of vindictiveness is the order of their day. Akin to chopping our head off and putting it on a spike at Calais as a warning to others not to dare try and leave.
I can't believe, however, they would risk the £60 Billion per year trade surplus with us.

There doesn't need to be much of a negotiation beyond "we'd like to trade with you on the same basis as before."

I'd genuinely love to hear a good reason why the response would be anything other than yes. The ONLY reasons would be political vindictiveness, which would confirm what a nasty unaccountable organisation the EU is. In almost a year no one has been able to explain another reason why an FTA couldn't be agreed in 5 minutes or less.

Our exports to the EU make up 52% of our total exports. EU exports to the UK make up 16% of of the EU's total exports. Therefore, we need them more than they need us. I've never been in a negotiation other than with tradesmen doing jobs at our house, but I always assumed the senior partner (i.e. the one who who was less needy) held the upper hand in the negotiation so would expect a little more than they were giving. Yes, the EU may be feeling vindictive, but we need them more and they probably want to get back some of that £350m* per week that they will be losing. In my tiny mind, this is one of the reasons why I voted Remain.

Personally, I think common sense will largely prevail and tariffs will not be imposed but the EU will get their pound of flesh by taking away the UK's financial passport therefore forcing some of the banks to leave London.


* not my figure.

*not my figure


Funny how every Borexiter uses that line now ay it ?
Seemed to own the figure at the time day they

Nope. Do you understand the difference between gross and net? When you give your salary which figure do you use?

Without the rebate and what the EU gives us back the figure is a mere £280m a week.

Peanuts.

I thought that was nonsense when said last year and I still think so now. Your salary is is an income, the EU subscription is an outgoing. When you buy a TV in a sale with a 20% discount on the price tag, you say you bought the TV for the discounted price, not the full price.
The Leave campaign made a deliberate attempt to mislead, end of.
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#32
(05-19-2017, 09:37 AM)chasetownbaggie Wrote:
(05-18-2017, 03:17 PM)Protheroe Wrote:
(05-18-2017, 03:10 PM)John Osbourne Wrote: For us to have the same access to their markets as they do to ours. Obviously the lower the tariff the better for both parties but if they wish to put a 20% tariff on our £240 billion worth of goods then we reciprocate on their £302 Billion worth into the UK so be it. (2016 figures Full Fact)
I would hope that the negotiators and politicos on both sides would see sense though the rhetoric coming from over the channel, IF reported correctly, does seem to suggest that an element of vindictiveness is the order of their day. Akin to chopping our head off and putting it on a spike at Calais as a warning to others not to dare try and leave.
I can't believe, however, they would risk the £60 Billion per year trade surplus with us.

There doesn't need to be much of a negotiation beyond "we'd like to trade with you on the same basis as before."

I'd genuinely love to hear a good reason why the response would be anything other than yes. The ONLY reasons would be political vindictiveness, which would confirm what a nasty unaccountable organisation the EU is. In almost a year no one has been able to explain another reason why an FTA couldn't be agreed in 5 minutes or less.

Our exports to the EU make up 52% of our total exports. EU exports to the UK make up 16% of of the EU's total exports. Therefore, we need them more than they need us. I've never been in a negotiation other than with tradesmen doing jobs at our house, but I always assumed the senior partner (i.e. the one who who was less needy) held the upper hand in the negotiation so would expect a little more than they were giving. Yes, the EU may be feeling vindictive, but we need them more and they probably want to get back some of that £350m* per week that they will be losing. In my tiny mind, this is one of the reasons why I voted Remain.

Personally, I think common sense will largely prevail and tariffs will not be imposed but the EU will get their pound of flesh by taking away the UK's financial passport therefore forcing some of the banks to leave London.


* not my figure.
True the E.U.s exports  to the U.K. as a block are far less but :

UK           to  Germany  £3.0 Bn
Germany  to  UK           £6.6 Bn
UK deficit                                  £3.6 Bn

UK          to France       £1.9 Bn
France     to UK            £2.7 Bn
UK deficit                                  £0.8 Bn

Total trade deficit with the two big cheeses who, frankly, call the shots in the E.U. = £4.4 Bn. Will they really want to risk that?
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#33
The exports to the EU figure is distorted by the fact that exports to third party countries (non-EU) which are via Rotterdam are counted as exports to the EU.
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#34
http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKBN18J2WP
things can only get better lol
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#35
(05-22-2017, 04:10 PM)John Osbourne Wrote:
(05-19-2017, 09:37 AM)chasetownbaggie Wrote:
(05-18-2017, 03:17 PM)Protheroe Wrote:
(05-18-2017, 03:10 PM)John Osbourne Wrote: For us to have the same access to their markets as they do to ours. Obviously the lower the tariff the better for both parties but if they wish to put a 20% tariff on our £240 billion worth of goods then we reciprocate on their £302 Billion worth into the UK so be it. (2016 figures Full Fact)
I would hope that the negotiators and politicos on both sides would see sense though the rhetoric coming from over the channel, IF reported correctly, does seem to suggest that an element of vindictiveness is the order of their day. Akin to chopping our head off and putting it on a spike at Calais as a warning to others not to dare try and leave.
I can't believe, however, they would risk the £60 Billion per year trade surplus with us.

There doesn't need to be much of a negotiation beyond "we'd like to trade with you on the same basis as before."

I'd genuinely love to hear a good reason why the response would be anything other than yes. The ONLY reasons would be political vindictiveness, which would confirm what a nasty unaccountable organisation the EU is. In almost a year no one has been able to explain another reason why an FTA couldn't be agreed in 5 minutes or less.

Our exports to the EU make up 52% of our total exports. EU exports to the UK make up 16% of of the EU's total exports. Therefore, we need them more than they need us. I've never been in a negotiation other than with tradesmen doing jobs at our house, but I always assumed the senior partner (i.e. the one who who was less needy) held the upper hand in the negotiation so would expect a little more than they were giving. Yes, the EU may be feeling vindictive, but we need them more and they probably want to get back some of that £350m* per week that they will be losing. In my tiny mind, this is one of the reasons why I voted Remain.

Personally, I think common sense will largely prevail and tariffs will not be imposed but the EU will get their pound of flesh by taking away the UK's financial passport therefore forcing some of the banks to leave London.


* not my figure.
True the E.U.s exports  to the U.K. as a block are far less but :

UK           to  Germany  £3.0 Bn
Germany  to  UK           £6.6 Bn
UK deficit                                  £3.6 Bn

UK          to France       £1.9 Bn
France     to UK            £2.7 Bn
UK deficit                                  £0.8 Bn

Total trade deficit with the two big cheeses who, frankly, call the shots in the E.U. = £4.4 Bn. Will they really want to risk that?

I don't think it will happen but even under WTO rules not all of that trade would be lost would it? People will continue to pay a premium for German engineering for example.
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