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The Corbyn Effect
#1
Time for a non partisan debate on here.

So here's my question would Labour do better with a different leader.

The obvious answer seems to be definitely yes. But is that actually true?

Given how Melenchon did far better in France than the Socialists., Syrizia outstripped the Socialists in Greece, and Podemos is doing better then the Sociialists in Spain, even in Holland the new leftist/green party did far better than the Social Democratic party. Is there a case for arguing that Labour would do even worse with a less left wing leader? Or is the UK just a different political animal to other European countries?

Genuine debating question, to which I don't have a definitive answer. Certainly no Corbyn fanboy, but given the evidence from the recent Dutch and French elections, it is a question that should be debated.
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#2
(05-03-2017, 07:07 PM)Shabby Russian Wrote: Time for a non partisan debate on here.

So here's my question would Labour do better with a different leader.

The obvious answer seems to be definitely yes. But is that actually true?

Given how Melenchon did far better in France than the Socialists., Syrizia outstripped the Socialists in Greece, and Podemos is doing better then the Sociialists in Spain, even in Holland the new leftist/green party did far better than the Social Democratic party. Is there a case for arguing that Labour would do even worse with a less left wing leader? Or is the UK just a different political animal to other European countries?

Genuine debating question, to which I don't have a definitive answer. Certainly no Corbyn fanboy, but given the evidence from the recent Dutch and French elections, it is a question that should be debated.

I think the general answer is that a socialist (left wing) Government is extremely unlikely to be elected in this country, with the exception of Scotland. Tony Blair realised this and made the Labour party electable by basically being Tory light. The re-action to this in Scotland was that Labour under Blair was not left wing enough and led to the rise of the Scots Nats. Labour without the Scottish seats is dead in the water.

So after all that garbage I believe Labour would do better (in England at least) with a perceived less left wing leader and party stance but that ship has long sailed.
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#3
(05-03-2017, 07:19 PM)Strawman Wrote:
(05-03-2017, 07:07 PM)Shabby Russian Wrote: Time for a non partisan debate on here.

So here's my question would Labour do better with a different leader.

The obvious answer seems to be definitely yes. But is that actually true?

Given how Melenchon did far better in France than the Socialists., Syrizia outstripped the Socialists in Greece, and Podemos is doing better then the Sociialists in Spain, even in Holland the new leftist/green party did far better than the Social Democratic party. Is there a case for arguing that Labour would do even worse with a less left wing leader? Or is the UK just a different political animal to other European countries?

Genuine debating question, to which I don't have a definitive answer. Certainly no Corbyn fanboy, but given the evidence from the recent Dutch and French elections, it is a question that should be debated.

I think the general answer is that a socialist (left wing) Government is extremely unlikely to be elected in this country, with the exception of Scotland. Tony Blair realised this and made the Labour party electable by basically being Tory light. The re-action to this in Scotland was that Labour under Blair was not left wing enough and led to the rise of the Scots Nats. Labour without the Scottish seats is dead in the water.

So after all that garbage I believe Labour would do better (in England at least) with a perceived less left wing leader and party stance but that ship has long sailed.
Interesting theory but all of the social attitude surveys show that the views of Scottish people are broadly consistent with English people. Hence there is no reason to suppose that the Scots are any more socialist than the english/welsh.
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#4
(05-03-2017, 07:24 PM)logic1 Wrote:
(05-03-2017, 07:19 PM)Strawman Wrote:
(05-03-2017, 07:07 PM)Shabby Russian Wrote: Time for a non partisan debate on here.

So here's my question would Labour do better with a different leader.

The obvious answer seems to be definitely yes. But is that actually true?

Given how Melenchon did far better in France than the Socialists., Syrizia outstripped the Socialists in Greece, and Podemos is doing better then the Sociialists in Spain, even in Holland the new leftist/green party did far better than the Social Democratic party. Is there a case for arguing that Labour would do even worse with a less left wing leader? Or is the UK just a different political animal to other European countries?

Genuine debating question, to which I don't have a definitive answer. Certainly no Corbyn fanboy, but given the evidence from the recent Dutch and French elections, it is a question that should be debated.

I think the general answer is that a socialist (left wing) Government is extremely unlikely to be elected in this country, with the exception of Scotland. Tony Blair realised this and made the Labour party electable by basically being Tory light. The re-action to this in Scotland was that Labour under Blair was not left wing enough and led to the rise of the Scots Nats. Labour without the Scottish seats is dead in the water.

So after all that garbage I believe Labour would do better (in England at least) with a perceived less left wing leader and party stance but that ship has long sailed.
Interesting theory but all of the social attitude surveys show that the views of Scottish people are broadly consistent with English people. Hence there is no reason to suppose that the Scots are any more socialist than the english/welsh.

That maybe true but the SNP have continually banged on about the Labour party being not left wing enough. Now they are more left-wing they have switched tack to say Labour are a divided party. The last Scottish poll I saw showed the Tories may take 8-10 seats from the SNP sp perhaps the surveys have some credence or perhaps they are just fed up with Sturgeon banging on about independence.
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#5
I increasingly think that Keir Starmer could be the man.
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#6
British elections are won from the centre. I expect wails in response to this statement - but the narrative that May leads an extreme far right government from the left shows how far left the left has shifted. Cameron and May have spent the last two years spreading themselves all over the centre ground like peanut butter - hell the high spending - high tax Tories have even stolen the incoherent Energy Price Cap policy. They've moved further away from classical liberal economics and are far more socially interventionist.

Tactically it's a great way to win elections, as the ONLY way a party in opposition can distinguish itself is with clear blue water. The Lib Dems have Brexit, the Labour party faction in control have a soft Trotskyism which is about as palatable as uncooked chicken.

I don't know where Labour goes from here. I suspect it may be oblivion. I was laughed at for predicting they'd scrape 25% under Corbyn in a GE, it seems that maybe I was over optimistic.

I suspect a new party may arise, as there's clearly no future for the old one.

(05-03-2017, 07:41 PM)Zoltanger Wrote: I increasingly think that Keir Starmer could be the man.

Have you stayed awake long enough to hear him finish a sentence?
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#7
(05-03-2017, 07:41 PM)Zoltanger Wrote: I increasingly think that Keir Starmer could be the man.

He went to a grammar school - clearly grounds for expulsion  Big Grin
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#8
(05-03-2017, 07:43 PM)Strawman Wrote:
(05-03-2017, 07:41 PM)Zoltanger Wrote: I increasingly think that Keir Starmer could be the man.

He went to a grammar school - clearly grounds for expulsion  Big Grin

Son of a toolmaker and a nurse. Roots.

(05-03-2017, 07:41 PM)Protheroe Wrote:
(05-03-2017, 07:41 PM)Zoltanger Wrote: I increasingly think that Keir Starmer could be the man.

Have you stayed awake long enough to hear him finish a sentence?

But he's a lawyer, you're on the meter mate. I'm now finding it hard to walk into a room if I hear Theresa's voice.
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#9
(05-03-2017, 07:41 PM)Protheroe Wrote: British elections are won from the centre. I expect wails in response to this statement - but the narrative that May leads an extreme far right government from the left shows how far left the left has shifted. Cameron and May have spent the last two years spreading themselves all over the centre ground like peanut butter - hell the high spending - high tax Tories have even stolen the incoherent Energy Price Cap policy. They've moved further away from classical liberal economics and are far more socially interventionist.

Tactically it's a great way to win elections, as the ONLY way a party in opposition can distinguish itself is with clear blue water. The Lib Dems have Brexit, the Labour party faction in control have a soft Trotskyism which is about as palatable as uncooked chicken.

I don't know where Labour goes from here. I suspect it may be oblivion. I was laughed at for predicting they'd scrape 25% under Corbyn in a GE, it  seems that maybe I was over optimistic.

I suspect a new party may arise, as there's clearly no future for the old one.

(05-03-2017, 07:41 PM)Zoltanger Wrote: I increasingly think that Keir Starmer could be the man.

Have you stayed awake long enough to hear him finish a sentence?

I think this analysis is wrong.

One thing that has surprised me about Corbyn's leadership, how little in reality party policy has shifted to the left, and how Social Demcratic, rather than Marxist their economic policy is. Compare what Labour is proposing now, to what Atlee's Government did, there is a distinct rightwards shift.
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#10
(05-08-2017, 11:46 AM)Shabby Russian Wrote:
(05-03-2017, 07:41 PM)Protheroe Wrote: British elections are won from the centre. I expect wails in response to this statement - but the narrative that May leads an extreme far right government from the left shows how far left the left has shifted. Cameron and May have spent the last two years spreading themselves all over the centre ground like peanut butter - hell the high spending - high tax Tories have even stolen the incoherent Energy Price Cap policy. They've moved further away from classical liberal economics and are far more socially interventionist.

Tactically it's a great way to win elections, as the ONLY way a party in opposition can distinguish itself is with clear blue water. The Lib Dems have Brexit, the Labour party faction in control have a soft Trotskyism which is about as palatable as uncooked chicken.

I don't know where Labour goes from here. I suspect it may be oblivion. I was laughed at for predicting they'd scrape 25% under Corbyn in a GE, it  seems that maybe I was over optimistic.

I suspect a new party may arise, as there's clearly no future for the old one.

(05-03-2017, 07:41 PM)Zoltanger Wrote: I increasingly think that Keir Starmer could be the man.

Have you stayed awake long enough to hear him finish a sentence?

I think this analysis is wrong.

One thing that has surprised me about Corbyn's leadership, how little in reality party policy has shifted to the left, and how Social Demcratic, rather than Marxist their economic policy is. Compare what Labour is proposing now, to what Atlee's Government did, there is a distinct rightwards shift.

I was referring to 'the narrative'. There's been a shift towards markets (even in China) because markets are irrefutably good for humanity. Even a Marxist wouldn't deny the evidence staring them in the face. Labour's narrative is as left as it was in 1983, its membership and foot soldiers are further to the left - when the Manifesto comes out I'll compare and contrast. There'll be a "National Invesment Bank", nailed on.
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