And if we don’t go up scenario
#31
(04-24-2024, 07:19 PM)HugeHons Wrote:
(04-24-2024, 07:16 PM)Fulham Fallout Wrote:
(04-24-2024, 07:13 PM)HugeHons Wrote:
(04-24-2024, 06:27 PM)Fulham Fallout Wrote:
(04-24-2024, 05:16 PM)HugeHons Wrote: Very good season. New owners,playoffs (we will be in them) and a 33 percent chance of promotion!

I can see why you never made the finance professional World Cup competition. Big Grin

That’s cause we don’t have to play all 3 teams in the play offs! So a 1 in 3 chance! Or summat

There’s 4 teams and one go up.  That’s 1 in 4, a 25% probability of being promoted, with all other things being equal.

We don’t need to worry about one of the teams because we won’t play them. We will be up against a semi-final opponent and (hopefully) a final. So we are one of 3. So a 1 in 3 chance!

We don't have to beat ourselves so I'd say that's one in two.
Would rather talk to ChatGPT
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#32
It’s 1 in 4.

Four teams enter the tournament, each with an equal chance of winning. Therefore each side has a 25% chance.
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#33
(04-24-2024, 07:31 PM)Duffers Wrote: It’s 1 in 4.

Four teams enter the tournament, each with an equal chance of winning. Therefore each side has a 25% chance.

If only there was an expert in numbers on this Bored to confirm!  Cool

I have our chances at 18.68%
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#34
(04-24-2024, 07:33 PM)SuperBob2002 Wrote:
(04-24-2024, 07:31 PM)Duffers Wrote: It’s 1 in 4.

Four teams enter the tournament, each with an equal chance of winning. Therefore each side has a 25% chance.

If only there was an expert in numbers on this Bored to confirm!  Cool

I have our chances at 18.68%

We need to develop a more accurate prediction based upon historic performance.  If we take the total points awarded to the teams in 3rd to 6th (317) and look at our contribution (72), then our chances are around 22.7%.  This rises if we don't have to play all of the teams.
Would rather talk to ChatGPT
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#35
(04-24-2024, 07:31 PM)Duffers Wrote: It’s 1 in 4.

Four teams enter the tournament, each with an equal chance of winning. Therefore each side has a 25% chance.

1 in 3 for us. We can discount one team. We are 1 of 3. Simple!
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#36
(04-24-2024, 07:46 PM)HugeHons Wrote:
(04-24-2024, 07:31 PM)Duffers Wrote: It’s 1 in 4.

Four teams enter the tournament, each with an equal chance of winning. Therefore each side has a 25% chance.

1 in 3 for us. We can discount one team. We are 1 of 3. Simple!

We might be the team that gets discounted though.

I'm off to ask Kant.
Would rather talk to ChatGPT
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#37
(04-24-2024, 07:46 PM)HugeHons Wrote:
(04-24-2024, 07:31 PM)Duffers Wrote: It’s 1 in 4.

Four teams enter the tournament, each with an equal chance of winning. Therefore each side has a 25% chance.

1 in 3 for us. We can discount one team. We are 1 of 3. Simple!

That’s not how it works.

There are four teams, four possible outcomes. Us winning is one of those outcomes.

One in four.
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#38
(04-24-2024, 08:08 PM)Duffers Wrote:
(04-24-2024, 07:46 PM)HugeHons Wrote:
(04-24-2024, 07:31 PM)Duffers Wrote: It’s 1 in 4.

Four teams enter the tournament, each with an equal chance of winning. Therefore each side has a 25% chance.

1 in 3 for us. We can discount one team. We are 1 of 3. Simple!

That’s not how it works.

There are four teams, four possible outcomes. Us winning is one of those outcomes.

One in four.

FF has stolen his login.
In the form of his life.
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#39
(04-24-2024, 08:11 PM)Midget In A Pinstripe Suit Wrote:
(04-24-2024, 08:08 PM)Duffers Wrote:
(04-24-2024, 07:46 PM)HugeHons Wrote:
(04-24-2024, 07:31 PM)Duffers Wrote: It’s 1 in 4.

Four teams enter the tournament, each with an equal chance of winning. Therefore each side has a 25% chance.

1 in 3 for us. We can discount one team. We are 1 of 3. Simple!

That’s not how it works.

There are four teams, four possible outcomes. Us winning is one of those outcomes.

One in four.

FF has stolen his login.

To be fair even FF knows this.
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#40
1 in 3. You won’t change my mind. Smile
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