UK Covid death toll
(3 hours ago)baggy1 Wrote: What is causing the current excess then?

Let me put it another way - There are 2k more deaths than normal for week 46. Do you think that there were more or less than 2k covid deaths in that week, if you agree that there were probably about 2k covid deaths in week 46 then the excess deaths will be down to covid because we didn't have it in week 46 of 2019. It really is that simple.

If you don't believe that there are any covid deaths any more then you need to ask why there are 2k more deaths than normal.

I'm struggling to understand why you both don't get such a basic principle of measuring excess deaths.

Because if you don't believe, you can then justify your position with regards to going back to normal.
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(3 hours ago)baggy1 Wrote: What is causing the current excess then?

Let me put it another way - There are 2k more deaths than normal for week 46. Do you think that there were more or less than 2k covid deaths in that week, if you agree that there were probably about 2k covid deaths in week 46 then the excess deaths will be down to covid because we didn't have it in week 46 of 2019. It really is that simple.

If you don't believe that there are any covid deaths any more then you need to ask why there are 2k more deaths than normal.

I'm struggling to understand why you both don't get such a basic principle of measuring excess deaths.

I can't answer for Billy but I am not denying that some of those 2k excess deaths are due to Covid. However I don't believe they all are. 

What has caused the extra 100 excess deaths at home per day since March which is now at 140 excess deaths at home per day? Surely not all Covid.

Some of the recent excess deaths could be people who didn't get treatment in the last 8 months for other problems. Some of those excess deaths sadly may be due to suicides. 

Clearly Covid is still doing the rounds and is responsible for deaths but thankfully not in such large numbers as spring time. Why is that? Better treatment? Less vulnerable people? Less prevalent in society since we don't really know the true case numbers from spring time since only hospital admissions were tested? 

Not sure anyone knows the answers but the farcical decision making by this Government who pretend to be following some form of scientific reasoning makes people like me suspicious. If that makes me a covidiot or whatever names are banded about then I will accept the title. I have pretty much followed the rules to the letter since day one but that doesn't mean I can't question anything. 

These days it seems to me you are either classed as a sheep or a flat earther with no in-between. Anyone thinking that is not worth engaging with anyway as they are clearly just repeating what others have spouted. Not suggesting you are that by the way baggy but I do question your sanity when you think Albion may win a trophy before you are 100!
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(2 hours ago)Derek Hardballs Wrote:
(3 hours ago)baggy1 Wrote: What is causing the current excess then?

Let me put it another way - There are 2k more deaths than normal for week 46. Do you think that there were more or less than 2k covid deaths in that week, if you agree that there were probably about 2k covid deaths in week 46 then the excess deaths will be down to covid because we didn't have it in week 46 of 2019. It really is that simple.

If you don't believe that there are any covid deaths any more then you need to ask why there are 2k more deaths than normal.

I'm struggling to understand why you both don't get such a basic principle of measuring excess deaths.

Because if you don't believe, you can then justify your position with regards to going back to normal.

Normal FFS. Because of the measures there will be no normal. You will be wishing for the Covid 2020 year as normal. The next decade of pain. Honestly some people don't really think before putting their foot in their mouth do they. So naïve and obviously dull.
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@Baggiebuckster

Big Grin


We're probably not as far apart as you think BB, I think that a month long (limited) lockdown was unnecessary and that a shorter one when hospitalisations started to rise would have done the job. 

My thoughts are, and I have no proof or basis on this other than gut, that the virus started to move from the North East, North West into the Midlands and this is what spooked the govt because they didn't want to risk it growing in London again. Now there can be two schools of thought here, 1stly that they have been through it once and were heavily hit therefore they would not have been affected because they have immunity. That would be disproven if they did take a hit, and that is a gamble to find out. Or secondly, they knew how close we were to a vaccine so why gamble with anything at all when a solution is so close.
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