UK Covid death toll

[Derek Hardballs]

Billy - FFS have you got me on ignore? You keep saying covid isn't any worse than flu and I keep asking you when we had a worse year for Flu, if you can let me know when that was I can dig out the figures for comparison.

Give me a chance!

I’m still trying to fit the figures to what I believe rather than fact.

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So, extrapolated, that’s nearly 6800 people who have Covid in Liverpool now, since testing began. Carrying that on that is going to be 68 people dying and countless others with long term, possibly permanent, health problems. In this short period. 
So you are suggesting these people and their loved ones do not exist? Or not “worth” taking precautions for? Charming person!

Think you missed the pt JOK. But it's nice to know you're in Deko's camp about me actively wanting people to die - charming indeed.

There is a 0.7% positive test rate as described by 162 people out of 23K "with covid". But the false positive rate is higher than 0.7%. So if the false positive test rate is 0.7% then all 162 people actually are false positives and this there are 0 cases in 23K.

Now 3 things:

1. We know the false positive test rate for this LHR test is higher than 0.7% probably 1-1.5%
2. We know that the false positive test rate for the PCR test is therefore much higher than than the LHR test
3. We know Covid is still around

The ONS carry out random population screening to determine how many Covid ‘cases’ there are currently in the population. They do this using PCR tests in the same laboratories as community tests which are therefore subject to the same serious false positive problems. For this reason, the regions with laboratories with the highest false positive rate have the highest ONS predicted case rate and the most ‘cases’ in community testing. The ONS predicted 2.2% of the population of the North West had Covid in the last week of October. Their prediction for the week of November 1st to 7th will be published on Friday 13th. Assuming the later prediction is not dramatically different to before, this means that the Army tests have shown only one third of the ONS predicted cases. The Government will be left with a choice when faced with the gap between the 2.2% figure from PCR testing and the 0.7% figure found by the Army using the new test:

- They could argue that cases fell by two thirds, from 2.2% to 0.7% in a week, and risk being proved wrong with the next round of ONS testing.

- They may claim that these new tests are missing two thirds of cases, and then be forced to abandon the new test as defective. They will then be left with the contradiction of there being no cases being diagnosed in the Liverpool community, but apparently continuing problems in hospitals where everyone is tested.

- They will have to admit that the 0.7% test is actually more accurate and that therefore there are serious problems with false positives from the PCR test results and finally start addressing those problems.

I never said you wanted people to die. Your idiotic idea that ‘it’s just the flu’ and we should all just ‘go back to normal‘ would / will lead to more people dying and becoming seriously ill if we follow the nonsense you are preaching. 

You seem to think the needs of the fittest should be paramount a charming perspective indeed!