11-01-2020, 01:07 PM
baggy1 Wrote:The data shows that the hospital numbers are going up based on the last 6 weeks Tom and it is reasonable to think that without doing anything those numbers will keep increasing.
The 'no excess deaths since June' line that I keep hearing being repeated is correct if you compare with 2019 but incorrect if you compare with the 5 year average, either way it is negligible but you have to take into account the high death rate we had earlier in the year will mean that a number of people that would have died now have already died. Basically we are running at normal figures now even with and increase of 15% earlier in the year. And also it is only up to the 16th October, it doesn't include the couple of weeks since as we don't have that data yet (we will have the week ended 23rd October on Tuesday). And crucially those two weeks are the ones with the higher hospitalisations.
The flu season of 2000 and 2009 figures were all winter figures, we need to be careful because we haven't been through a winter with covid yet, making predictions that it won't impact on excess deaths during the normal flu season is premature at best.
Great facting, as ever Baggie1. That's my fear, hospitals over run. My other fear right now is that we we'll be no better off after a lockdown as the schools and universities will keep the spread high. We cannot lock down forever, whether full on or in stages. We absolutely need to find a way to live with this. That is the big issue.