(10-15-2020, 09:29 AM)billybassett Wrote:(10-15-2020, 07:42 AM)Derek Hardballs Wrote:(10-15-2020, 07:07 AM)billybassett Wrote:(10-15-2020, 05:53 AM)Derek Hardballs Wrote:(10-14-2020, 10:01 PM)Sliced Wrote: I've stayed out of this discussion really as I work with COVID but I don't think this is correct DH. The jury is still out but evidence is that while it's more contagious, it will almost certainly be less severe. In general mutations reduce the severity of viruses. It's very rare that it happens the other way around.
Slice, just for clarification are you saying that Covid 19 is currently less dangerous than your average flu virus? I appreciate over time virus’s mutate and usually become less harmful over time but at this point?
Is that the sound of a dropping penny I hear?
How many people died of Covid 19 compared to flu in the same time period? How many people are suffering from long term effects of flu compared to Covid 19?
You still haven’t explained why governments across the world are plunging their economies into turmoil and damaging their popularity (Brexit and Trumpian cultists are the exception obviously) for something less deadly than the flu?
You still haven’t explained how someone who has a family they live with and are vulnerable can be kept safe if other members of the family have to go to school and work etc?
It seems to me that we can all pick a scientist who shares our own opinion on the situation.
Err in August - latest figures I can get from NHS england - is that circa 900 people died of flu and 320 of Covid. And yes I know I'm picking 1 month and I know that we've had a tragic loss of 40K+ lives. It's awful and I know those who have passed. I also know 2 people, one who's cancer treatment was delayed and is now likely terminal and another who was due for a routine scan in March that never happened until September and now has a cancer that if it can been caught in March would have had high 70s survival but now is low 20s. But you keep on suggesting, absolutely contrary to all scientific evidence, that this is a lethal virus. Please stop saying it.
This is a more contagious "respiratory" virus. On it's lethality it's a bit early to say on exact figures as some studies suggest an overall lower lethality, some the same lethality and others an order of 0.1-0.3% increase on total mortality rate for this vector.
As for "You still haven’t explained how someone who has a family they live with and are vulnerable..." I have told you but you refuse to hear. You do it the same as you would in any winter flu season due to the para above with regards to its lethality.
The thing is, you like the majority of the population, have never actually thought about how lethal flu is. So year on year you've lived in your naïve little bubble and thankfully/gratefully (I mean this sincerely) you and your family have come through and been fine. That, again thankfully, is what happens to most as flu and covid aren't lethal. And hopefully the world will go back to that sane place. As described on another message for 5 years my mother-in-law lived on and off with us on oxygen 24hrs a day. Any flu would have killed her. We were acutely aware of that. We managed it and she lived a happy end to her years. What we didn't do is adversely (severely) affect millions of other healthy people.
As for your final point. Go read the SAGE advisory committee's backgrounds and who they're associated to. There's plenty of fingers in plenty of pies. I choose to read the science from journals and other reports I'm lucky enough to get through my wife working in the pharma industry.
As for why are govts doing this? Good Q. I think that in March there was a panic, little was known about the virus and whether it would just be another flu strain. So they locked down - probably rightly. They gave us time to understand what the illness is and treat it more effectively. A lot of money trails have been set up then, PCR useless tests, track and trace -waste of time too slow, vaccines, ppe contracts, showboating nightingales etc etc... All these trails now need to be fed. But after 7 months lots is known about covid - it's just a slightly more contagious equally lethal (but not much more) strain of a well know respiratory virus (mers-covid, sars-cov2, HK.. etc). That's it. We know how to manage it because for 50years we've managed it the same way through a set of growing measures culminating in recent years in a 30-40% successful flu vaccine (that fails on all counts 2-3 yrs out of 10).
I'll keep posting Dekka because you're obsession with locking down everything to protect a few, when the risks are clear and evidenced, is akin to consciously killing more other people more slowly.
I'll get you another Q to answer Dekka as I was looking at this last night.
How many people of "working age" have died from Covid?
Circa 37m people 18-65 of working age. Remember also deaths from Covid for ages below 18 is statistically 0 so you could say 0-65 but I'll keep it simple.
I've got the ONS figure.. I've also got another figure that seems to suggest that figure is way too high...
How many people of working age have passed it on to the vulnerable and elderly and they have died?