UK Covid death toll

[billybassett]

Classic Hancock: #Coronavirus is indiscriminate & can have long-term & debilitating effects, including on young people.

Fear mongering, scaring and driving an agenda. 0.05% IFR for under 70s. And yes there will be exceptions, there is with every illness, tell that to the bloke down the road who was told not to go to hospital because he had a cough and he shouldn't bring covid to hospital and now because of 6mths without being seen has second stage lung cancer.

The main cancer in society is Newspeak Johnson and the Ministry of Propaganda.

[Derek Hardballs]

Classic Hancock:  #Coronavirus is indiscriminate & can have long-term & debilitating effects, including on young people.

Fear mongering, scaring and driving an agenda. 0.05% IFR for under 70s. And yes there will be exceptions, there is with every illness, tell that to the bloke down the road who was told not to go to hospital because he had a cough and he shouldn't bring covid to hospital and now because of 6mths without being seen has second stage lung cancer.

The main cancer in society is Newspeak Johnson and the Ministry of Propaganda.

Again why would countries from around the world hobble their own economies? Give a factual answer not a conspiracy theory or belief.

[Tom Joad]

Classic Hancock:  #Coronavirus is indiscriminate & can have long-term & debilitating effects, including on young people.

Fear mongering, scaring and driving an agenda. 0.05% IFR for under 70s. And yes there will be exceptions, there is with every illness, tell that to the bloke down the road who was told not to go to hospital because he had a cough and he shouldn't bring covid to hospital and now because of 6mths without being seen has second stage lung cancer.

The main cancer in society is Newspeak Johnson and the Ministry of Propaganda.

Again why would countries from around the world hobble their own economies? Give a factual answer not a conspiracy theory or belief.

This is what puzzles me. I currently have a close relative (with respiratory problems) in hospital and he texted me to say his consultant and most Drs there are dreading the winter. They are certain they will be over run.   Yet the Nightingales were never used, Covid treatment has improved hugely, awareness-and thus hygiene- is better plus we are distancing and using our nous to avoid danger. (I know there are exceptions, but in the main).  After following government advice to the letter and witnessing the trail of ineptitude they continue to wreak, I have yet to find an argument to those that say we should shield the elderly and vulnerable while others carry on with their businesses,taking appropriate precautions. I see no exit, do we lock down in various levels forever?

[baggy1]

The nightingales were never used because of staffing issues not because other hospitals coped. At the peak there were so many hospital staff off that there weren't enough to go round normal wards, let alone white elephant wards.

And agree covid treatment has improved hugely and this is, so far, reflected in not seeing an increase in deaths. The next couple of weeks will be very telling as to how it will go.

[billybassett]

Classic Hancock:  #Coronavirus is indiscriminate & can have long-term & debilitating effects, including on young people.

Fear mongering, scaring and driving an agenda. 0.05% IFR for under 70s. And yes there will be exceptions, there is with every illness, tell that to the bloke down the road who was told not to go to hospital because he had a cough and he shouldn't bring covid to hospital and now because of 6mths without being seen has second stage lung cancer.

The main cancer in society is Newspeak Johnson and the Ministry of Propaganda.

Again why would countries from around the world hobble their own economies? Give a factual answer not a conspiracy theory or belief.

I've literally explained my view on that 3 or 4 times.

[baggy1]

Another Friday and another increase in numbers; 3,044 now in hospital in England compared to 1,995 a week ago and 368 of those on ventilators compared with 285 this time last week so basically 1.5 times increase in a week of those in hospital which was the same for the week before (23rd - 1,381) and the week before that (16th - 894). If we continue like that then we will have issues. On the same curve of the last 4 weeks that gives us 4.5k next week, 6.75k the week after and 10k by the end of the month.

This is where I don't envy any decision makers. The increases from what I read is in the University cities which gives a good indication where the problem lies. I can see the logic in closing pubs but wholesale seems a bit of a blanket approach. and as for closing restaurants as well - that doesn't make much sense, however the places I will visit are well looked after and apply the rules strictly, I imagine there are a number that don't follow that rule always.

We really have managed to fuck this up royally with have a test and trace system that is next to useless. Locking down late in the 1st place was an error that we can argue about til the cows come home but once that happened, to not have a recovery plan to install a tacking system is criminal.

Time to be careful folks - I know it's the last thing we need but it looks like we are going to have to go out less and minimise the life we wanted again.

I thought it worth quoting last weeks figures based on the fact that we are not far off those projected figures this week. The number of people in hospital in England as of yesterday is 4,379 which keeps us on the path to having 10k in hospital by the end of the month. We are definitely following the curve of 1.5x increase each week now for a 5 week period.

Numbers on ventilators are also up to 482, up 114 on last week (x1.3 increase)

This adds to the call for the circuit breaker as unfortunately there is nothing else that can be used. It is tragic that we are this far into the pandemic and only have one effective option left.

Another Friday update on figures that are still following the same pattern for the last few weeks now of number of people in hospital and on ventilators (hospitalisations increasing by 50% each week. It's probably worth adding the weekly figures for the last few weeks to show the growth and add a bit of context.

Numbers in Hospital:
16th Sept - 894
23rd Sept - 1,381 (1.54 x previous week)
30th Sept - 1,995 (1.44 x pw)
8th Oct - 3,044 (1.34 x pw) (I've adjusted this because it was 8 days data therefore reducing the growth to measure 7 days)
15th Oct - 4,379 (1.43 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,018 (1.59 x pw) (this is based on only 6 days growth multiplied up to 7 days as they are slow on getting yesterdays figures out today)

That shows us there is a steady growth week on week of hospitalisations. If it continues at a lower growth rate of 1.4x that will give us figures of 8,400 next week, 11.5k (ish) the 1st week of November and 16.5k the week after. the peak for hospitalisations was 17k in April. At the current growth rate we are 3 weeks off that. The numbers started falling 3 weeks after lockdown.

That was the bad news, now the less bad news - the excess death figures haven't increased as of week ended 9th October (which is the most recent data) but that will be a good indicator of how the seriousness of this is when we have it. The equivalent date to where we are with the figures was 23rd March (based on a two week lag) when we had 3,097 in hospital (compared with two weeks ago 8th Oct above). That week ending 27th Match showed 1k excess deaths over the 5YA, we haven't seen that this time.

Also a large part of the excess deaths earlier in the year came from sending old folk back into care homes where it spread like wildfire. As far as I am aware the government have no plans to do that this time. I've seen estimate of that accounted for up to 20k of the 54k excess deaths in England and Wales.

And we are a lot more careful now than we were in March which should also mitigate against the deaths. I've seen some quotes that the virus is less dangerous this time, I think that is debatable based on we have better mitigation in place this time (treatment, public consciousness etc) which will reduce the virus' effectiveness. Whichever way there appear to be less deaths this time.

People on Ventilators is also another way of showing how things are better this time. The last time we had 6k in hospital was the 27th March, on the 2nd April (1st day of measurement in England) they had 1,494 people on ventilators, we have 571 as of Wednesday and that number is growing slowly (about 100 a week) and therefore is very unlikely to match what we had in April.

Next couple of weeks will tell us a lot more with the data so keep safe folks.

[Brentbaggie]

Great job Baggy1. Fascinating if somewhat gruesome read. That said it seems far more positive than where we were pre-lockdown.

[Tom Joad]

Great job Baggy1. Fascinating if somewhat gruesome read. That said it seems far more positive than where we were pre-lockdown.

+1. Great facting and in a nutshell, what I'd like to be reading in the paper as opposed to having to sift through tons of facts edited for the purpose of whichever journalist. I'm not sure it's positive, mind. Just more optimistic than Spring and balanced with the dawning realisation we see no end to this going into winter.

[baggy1]

It's also getting to the stage where there is bound to be some overlap with Flu as well and I'm not certain that they are separating the two very well. And I'm trying to be fact based and personally I'm concerned about the growth in hospitalisations, but as others have pointed out we would have had at least a proportion of that anyway with flu season, why are we treating it differently.

[baggiebuckster]

Not sure how much can be read into the ventilator numbers. Don't know if the treatment policies have changed but there have been suggestions that ventilation is not the best approach to take in some cases.