UK Covid death toll
#31
(05-06-2020, 08:56 AM)Protheroe Wrote:
(05-06-2020, 08:36 AM)baggy1 Wrote: No I can't imagine anyone does JOK, I'd say that it will all wash out but it's fair to say that compared to across Europe we have performed badly and made errors of judgement.

You can't lockdown a free society in the same way as you can a totalitarian state either.

We haven't locked down like a totalitarian state, there are lots of people still working - I haven't stopped along with most of the Financial Services industry as we can work from home, Construction should be back and was never told to stop, Manufacturing will be back in some form very soon. We've hardly got the military patrolling the streets and arresting anyone out after dark.

(05-06-2020, 08:58 AM)JOK Wrote:
(05-06-2020, 08:36 AM)baggy1 Wrote: No I can't imagine anyone does JOK, I'd say that it will all wash out but it's fair to say that compared to across Europe we have performed badly and made errors of judgement.
Yep, I would say the errors were of possible tardiness rather than incorrect decisions. Lock  down was possibly a week or so too late although one argument for the delay was ‘isolation fatigue’ and I think we are seeing that appear increasingly this past week or so.
I know and can understand your frustration with Proth’s protestations of ‘business as usual’ but we do have to keep an eye on the economy. We can’t just dismiss it out of hand. This does all have to be paid for at some time

I agree with all of that but there is a large part of the economy still working, areas like retail and hospitality are obviously going to suffer but in my view that would happen anyway as people simply wouldn't go to the pub / shops in enough numbers to make them sustainable.

There will be some big losses that will take years to fix but that is inevitable I'm afraid.
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#32
It's enough to make you despair. On the day it is reported the UK has the highest death toll in Europe this is what newspapers are reporting.

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#33
(05-06-2020, 09:03 AM)baggy1 Wrote: There will be some big losses that will take years to fix but that is inevitable I'm afraid.

And the junk science that these 'big losses' are caused by?
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/six-...d-be-asked
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#34
Ok - so taking away the 'science' and the personality behind all of this, what approach would you have taken? So far today you've used a questionable piece of data and focussed on a single scientist / advisor to argue your point, there are many other advisors involved in the decision making. And I would say that the vast majority of the population understand why we are locked down like this at the moment as it is in the best interests for everyone.

What would you have proposed? Just carry on without any restriction? or is there a half way house that you would suggest?
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#35
(05-06-2020, 09:19 AM)baggy1 Wrote: Ok - so taking away the 'science' and the personality behind all of this, what approach would you have taken? So far today you've used a questionable piece of data and focussed on a single scientist / advisor to argue your point, there are many other advisors involved in the decision making. And I would say that the vast majority of the population understand why we are locked down like this at the moment as it is in the best interests for everyone.

What would you have proposed? Just carry on without any restriction? or is there a half way house that you would suggest?

The only other way was testing on a national scale but at the start when we abandoned testing communities broadly the usual suspects were decrying this method as a waste of time. This is where apologists for those they ‘believe’ in are dangerous because they close down scrutiny of decisions that  run contrary to what their football ahem political team do. Instead the criticise those for asking the questions. 

The elephant in the room is we couldn’t do the Test Test Test method as we didn’t have the resources to do so. So lockdown was the only solution unless people are still trying to advocate the Herd Immunity / Take it in the Chin nonsense.
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#36
I was watching the news last night and a comment by someone (possibly one of those at daily conference) had me scrambling for Wiki. This virus is on target to be more deadly than the Blitz (40-43k civilians killed). Not sure if that is a comment on how nasty the virus is or how the government strategy has failed. It's a depressing thought though.
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#37
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#38
Not advocating anything myself, I'm in no way qualified. Just say we'd locked down a few weeks earlier. No doubt the current death toll would be much less. But doesn't that give rise to the argument we would be relaxing the rules equally earlier and thus exposing us on release? The media spent most of the last two weeks firing the "When will you relax the lockdown" question and I can only imagine it would have been more demanding with people suggesting we had over reacted. With the absence of enough testing equipment, the antibodies test permanently 10 days away and the vaccine not nearly available, would we be looking now at a 2nd wave? Genuine question,BTW.
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#39
Took a look again at the ONS stats and downloaded their spreadsheet that contains data for the year up to and including 20th April. It record 28,570. According to the Worldometer website, which updates daily, based on the government's daily announcements, on 20th April, number of deaths was recorded as 19,051 - so it was being under-reported by 1/3. If that's still the case, then the current true figure could be approaching 50k now.
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#40
Don't know if this is the right place for this comment, and hope it doesn't become too partisan.

Where I live (DK), corona deaths are at a little more than 500, compared to the UK's 40+,0000. Accounting for the fact that the DK population is under six million (the UK is over 60 million), our death rate in proportion to population is ten times lower than the UK (per 100,000), and, significantly, several times lower than Sweden.
Though population density is much lower per km2, most people live in or around major cities, and with a lot in five or six story apartments. I don't think population density is the leading factor as people everywhere are mostly concentrated in urban/suburban areas.

Policy differences in the UK and Denmark included a week or so's difference in the implementation of lock-down measures. Ours predated yours; that may be a factor, but tenfold? And our restrictions have not ended up being as strict as yours.

Homes for the elderly are often provided by the local authorities here, and as a consequence, run on a not-for-profit basis and are strictly regulated with a large degree of trained staff. That might explain some differences in the rate of deaths among the elderly.

Test rates might also make a difference. I don't have those figures at hand, but certainly not more than double as many tests per citizen in DK of that in UK

Cultural differences, in relation to distance from power and trust in authority may also play in. We tend to believe experts and to have a higher degree of social cohesion than in the UK. You're more anarchic, which can both be refreshing and lethal.

That still leaves me wondering if there's something else going on. While a stitch in time might explain some differences, are there any medical bods out there that can explain the differential?
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