UK Covid death toll
Agree on most of that, as long as the hospitalisations stay south of 10k then we will be ok, and to be honest that's where I think we will be. As said there will be deaths and I expect them to be in a similar range to Flu (15-20k a year) so there will be excess compared to where we were pre-2020 but that is unavoidable.

The reason why the government have kept 'moving the goalposts' is because of the stupid stances taken early on and through until December. When they realised that they had fucked it up royally, and they had to put the 'Steve Baker's' in their box as they were being shown to just be dangerous, they adopted the approach that most of us could see from early on. There's a lot riding on the vaccines and I think they are now being too over cautious with their predictions but at least they are being that rather than reckless which is where they were before.

I will keep on saying it but for anyone that doesn't have the vaccine, and if that occurs in enough numbers, then they are risking putting the whole country back into restrictions. This isn't a time for people to whinge about free-will when having the vaccine is virtually risk free and will provide the freedoms we all want.

Edit - the 10k figure will be during any peak time (Flu season In guess) not normal times where it should be less than 5k at worst. And there will be nervousness when it starts rising again (which it will) resulting in restrictions at that time.
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Thought it was because those idiotic Europeans had screwed up their vaccine rollout?

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-brit...e-12268469
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(04-07-2021, 02:29 PM)baggiebuckster Wrote: Thought it was because those idiotic Europeans had screwed up their vaccine rollout?

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-brit...e-12268469

Ironically, the MHRA recommendations for the AZ vaccine (over 30s only) are now more restrictive than the EMA's (all age groups)...
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And if a variant becomes resistant to the vaccine we throw those that are vulnerable under a financial, health and social bus until a new vaccine is produced? Normal isn’t going to happen anytime soon and as I’ve said several times normal changes when circumstances change it’s not set in stone.
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(04-07-2021, 12:56 PM)baggy1 Wrote: Agree on most of that, as long as the hospitalisations stay south of 10k then we will be ok, and to be honest that's where I think we will be. As said there will be deaths and I expect them to be in a similar range to Flu (15-20k a year) so there will be excess compared to where we were pre-2020 but that is unavoidable.

The reason why the government have kept 'moving the goalposts' is because of the stupid stances taken early on and through until December. When they realised that they had fucked it up royally, and they had to put the 'Steve Baker's' in their box as they were being shown to just be dangerous, they adopted the approach that most of us could see from early on. There's a lot riding on the vaccines and I think they are now being too over cautious with their predictions but at least they are being that rather than reckless which is where they were before.

I will keep on saying it but for anyone that doesn't have the vaccine, and if that occurs in enough numbers, then they are risking putting the whole country back into restrictions. This isn't a time for people to whinge about free-will when having the vaccine is virtually risk free and will provide the freedoms we all want.

Edit - the 10k figure will be during any peak time (Flu season In guess) not normal times where it should be less than 5k at worst. And there will be nervousness when it starts rising again (which it will) resulting in restrictions at that time.

 Will be interesting to see what happens when most of us have had two doses of the vaccine.
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(04-07-2021, 04:19 PM)Derek Hardballs Wrote: And if a variant becomes resistant to the vaccine we throw those that are vulnerable under a financial, health and social bus until a new vaccine is produced? Normal isn’t going to happen anytime soon and as I’ve said several times normal changes when circumstances change it’s not set in stone.

Well vaccines can be tweaked easily, but secondly there are vaccines being developed all the time. We've already seen variants that are more resistant to one of the vaccines but not the others. It's very unlikely that a variant is going to come along for which a) people who have had the virus don't at least get some protection and b) none of the vaccines have any impact upon.
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(04-07-2021, 07:53 PM)Sliced Wrote:
(04-07-2021, 04:19 PM)Derek Hardballs Wrote: And if a variant becomes resistant to the vaccine we throw those that are vulnerable under a financial, health and social bus until a new vaccine is produced? Normal isn’t going to happen anytime soon and as I’ve said several times normal changes when circumstances change it’s not set in stone.

Well vaccines can be tweaked easily, but secondly there are vaccines being developed all the time. We've already seen variants that are more resistant to one of the vaccines but not the others. It's very unlikely that a variant is going to come along for which a) people who have had the virus don't at least get some protection and b) none of the vaccines have any impact upon.

We shall see Slice. I appreciate you work in this field so I’m am not going to disagree. I’m not convinced that we are going back to normal anytime soon sadly though.
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(04-07-2021, 04:19 PM)Derek Hardballs Wrote: And if a variant becomes resistant to the vaccine we throw those that are vulnerable under a financial, health and social bus until a new vaccine is produced? Normal isn’t going to happen anytime soon and as I’ve said several times normal changes when circumstances change it’s not set in stone.

Well that’s it then. Fucked.
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(04-07-2021, 04:29 PM)TETLEY74 Wrote:  Will be interesting to see what happens when most of us have had two doses of the vaccine.

Indeed, early indications are that the link between cases, hospitalisations and deaths has already been broken: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56663969

There was a direct link between cases increasing, a couple of weeks later, hospitalisations rising, and then a further couple of weeks later excess deaths increasing. That appears to have been broken to a degree now and it will be interesting to see how things go as we ease out of lockdown further. Schools going back in September marked a noticeable increase in cases and hospitalisations which doesn't appear to have occurred so far this time. The obvious reason for this is the vaccination programme being the big difference, fingers crossed that it continues with each step.
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Week 12 figures for E&W to the 26th March are now released and show us entirely back into the 'normal' death levels for this time of year. I'll make this the last weekly update on this subject as we are now 12 months from when we 1st saw any excess deaths. The actual number of deaths is just over 10k for the week and about 500 below the 5YA figure.

For the 12 months (53 weeks) we saw 650,019 deaths for the year, the 5YA is 538,653 giving us an excess death figure of 111,366 (this is E&W only). That is an increase in deaths for that period of over 20%. There will be fluctuations on the year on year basis but we have not seen an increase of that % since WWII. People will use figures to get across whatever point they want, (this is only the same as the 90s in % excess deaths, or we are facing the worst crisis in our lifetime) but the reality is that we have had something that we have not faced in our lifetime and we are starting to get it under control. 

We can also look at the mistakes made early on in the UK and point the finger, these issues will need to be addressed eventually but lessons do appear to have been learned in releasing restrictions this time for balance. Also the situation on the continent shows how fragile the position is and any wrong move can result in an increase in transmission which will have to be monitored going forward. The UK got one decision very much right and that is vaccines and the ramped up roll out, it really was a hail mary pass because we had stacked it at Christmas but it worked and continues to be good news.

With 3M deaths worldwide in 12 months (and I suspect that figure is understated due to recording of deaths and causes worldwide) this is the worst peacetime death toll we have faced since the Spanish Flu which killed an estimated 1% (a very debated figure) of the global population in 3 years. We are nowhere near that figure compared to our global population now and then but we have to consider medical advances since that point and the restrictions we have in place that have mitigated the death toll.

I do think we can be positive looking forward with the vaccination programme in place but I don't think we will ever return to a 2019 'normal'. This has advanced workplace thinking, communications and the way we shop as three items alone much more rapidly than was occurring for good or bad. The high street and office space rentals will see a major shift in usage going forward and I can't see that being reversed. 

It's been a shit year, but we are moving out of this in the right direction. Please get vaccinated and be sensible in how we get back to normal, whatever that is. And I'll be looking forward to fighting for a space at the bar in the Vine or queuing in the fanzone for a weak pint of piss in August.
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