A different view on Bruce... [this thread contains xG and stats] - Printable Version +- WBAUnofficial (https://wbaunofficial.org.uk) +-- Forum: WBAUnofficial (https://wbaunofficial.org.uk/forumdisplay.php?fid=3) +--- Forum: WBAUnofficial (https://wbaunofficial.org.uk/forumdisplay.php?fid=4) +--- Thread: A different view on Bruce... [this thread contains xG and stats] (/showthread.php?tid=26738) |
A different view on Bruce... [this thread contains xG and stats] - SW4Baggie - 09-22-2022 Trying out some new work software last night, I decided to undertake some analysis of Bruce (and Val)'s reigns to see if there was anything in how we seem to have been unlucky for well over 18 months now IMO. For this, I have looked at expected goals (xG), expected goals against (xA), and used those to generate expected results (xR) and expected points (xP). First, is a rolling chart of xG and xA for all our games last season and this. The gaps show where Ismael was sacked, and where the new season started. It runs from right to left, with far right being summer 2021 and left being our last match. [attachment=694] What's clear is we started last season highly dominant in games - we had consistently higher xG than xA meaning we ought to have comfortably won matches before going into a tricky spell after the defeat at Stoke where for the first time that season we were completely outplayed. The Bristol game aside, we were poor for 5 or so games, before we started to see improvement again - however our performances didn't receive the points they merited. Up until the final two games under Val, we were consistently the better side in games and it feels like here the players lost faith in what Val was doing and utimately downed tools against Preston and Millwall. What's startling is that Bruce's arrival coincides with the two lines closing - we started OK in and ought to have gained more points in his first 5 or so games, but we became far less proficient going forward and our defending worsened, he made us a much poorer side before our final couple of games where we played opposition with little to play for and recorded a few very positive performances. This season however, Bruce has been VERY unlucky. Our performances have warranted far more points than we've accrued. Our pattern is remarkably similar to Val's first 10 games, however we've accrued 10 points vs. the 22 we got under Val. Indeed, if you look at our xR and xP measures we should be second in the league on 21 points based on how we've played which is why there's so much disagreement over whether or not Bruce is doing a decent job. My concern is that the lines have merged again, suggesting the players are losing faith in what Bruce is trying to do, and performances are worsening. Unfortunately, unlike last season, we don't have a points cushion, and if we start to take fewer points from games due to worsening performances we will very much be in trouble. Looking at the above graph, I'm not really sure what more Bruce could be doing... Breaking it down by game...
What was interesting was up until the final 2 games, those two awful defeats against Millwall and Preston, we were still running at 2.11 points for the season. Those two results really stand out as the first games where we were deservedly well beaten. Although it seems the fans had turned long before these games, we had no right to. It was only these final 2 games where we put in performances really worthy of getting the manager the boot. Indeed the 5 games up until those 2 games should have resulted in 8 more points than we achieved which would have had us comfortably in the top 2 spots. So over to Bruce then: Our luck didn't change when Bruce arrived... Although he started badly in terms of points accrued, we actually continued then trend of receiving far fewer points than our performances merited.
Based on total PPG from all their games, Val ought to have delivered 90 points which would have seen us joint top with Fulham but in second on GD, and had Bruce had the full season we'd have finished on 76 points which would have seen us finish 5th. Bruce conclusively made us worse last season. This season we have taken underperformance to a whole new level...
I've maintained throughout that we were wrong to sack Val - he changed our style in reaction to teams "finding us out" and we were delivering perofrmances again until the players downed tools. We find ourselves in the exact same position now under Bruce as we did when we decided to give Val the boot... A team playing OK, doing the right thing, but players not converting chances. The consistency here is that we have built a squad with an attitude problem, and that cannot score for toffee. The most sackable thing Bruce has done is not bring in another striker, as with fit Dike, or someone more use than a carrot up front, we'd be at least 7-8 points better off. I'd also argue had we done a deal for in the summer, we'd have got promoted last season. RE: A different view on Bruce... [this thread contains xG and stats] - baggiebloke - 09-22-2022 Wow. I'll read this tomorrow, thanks for posting it. RE: A different view on Bruce... [this thread contains xG and stats] - Birdman1811 - 09-22-2022 Excellent post. And you're right, it does actually point to giving Bruce some time to see if luck balances itself out. Often it does feel purely like luck has deserted us, regardless of manager. RE: A different view on Bruce... [this thread contains xG and stats] - Remi_Moses - 09-22-2022 Great reporting - sometimes it's important to remove the emotional factor. I'm still convinced Bruce is yesterday's man without the hunger we need. Nice guy but enthusiastic manager he ain't. RE: A different view on Bruce... [this thread contains xG and stats] - Mr vertical - 09-22-2022 Thanks for that - a lot of work. It's interesting that Gourmet has said Brucey has a long-term future, maybe this is why. We need to break the cycle of sacking managers at some point too, I just wish we'd appointed someone else to do it. RE: A different view on Bruce... [this thread contains xG and stats] - Slowpoke Gonzalez - 09-22-2022 I appreciate the effort you went to for this post. It's like you've quantified what many fans are feeling at the moment. What's obvious is we haven't been getting what we deserve. Who the fault lies with isn't as clear. Ultimately, Bruce will get sacked eventually. He won't ride us off into the sunset and he was never going to. RE: A different view on Bruce... [this thread contains xG and stats] - BaggieBaggieBromBrom - 09-22-2022 Steve Bruce for life. 1-1 forever RE: A different view on Bruce... [this thread contains xG and stats] - SW4Baggie - 09-22-2022 (09-22-2022, 10:41 AM)Mr vertical Wrote: Thanks for that - a lot of work. It's interesting that Gourmet has said Brucey has a long-term future, maybe this is why. We need to break the cycle of sacking managers at some point too, I just wish we'd appointed someone else to do it. Agree with this. Our luck has to change at some point but it doesn’t seem to be coming. The short term trajectory looks like Bruce will make us a worse team and results will not improve. It’s a real stick or twist moment, and I’m inclined to give Bruce a little more time, as history suggests that another manager will only see the same pattern repeat. Fundamentally the squad is the problem. RE: A different view on Bruce... [this thread contains xG and stats] - Kit Kat Chunky - 09-22-2022 Does this analysis include "crisp packet hands"? RE: A different view on Bruce... [this thread contains xG and stats] - Tom Joad - 09-22-2022 Actually that's pretty much as I have seen it. Of course, individual errors play a massive part in derailing what might have/should have been. In this case, do we blame the player, the bloke that picked him, or how we come to employ that player? Ultimately, we do have some unprofessional attitudes at the club that are hampering any managers efforts. I've no doubt this is why successive mangers have spoken of wanting 3 or 4 windows. Sooner or later, someone needs to get the big stick out and that requires backing from the club. |