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+--- Thread: UK Covid death toll (/showthread.php?tid=10162)
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RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 06-10-2020
Agree on both of those posts - my gut feeling is that we are ok to start getting back to normal. One small point, we are still in the 1st wave as it hasn't gone away yet, once we have got it down to very low numbers and if we see it come back that will be the 2nd wave. The next few weeks will be very telling as, basically, lockdown is over in many peoples eyes. If we don't see a spike then we can move quicker with easing lockdown.
The focus needs to be on getting the old and vulnerable back into society safely at that point - we can't be having street parties until we are all out of this including the 12M over 65s. We're all in this together I'm told.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Derek Hardballs - 06-10-2020
(05-29-2020, 09:20 AM)baggy1 Wrote: Sorry Malc - I misread the pub comment, I've been spending too much time on Twitter with jubilant Tories spouting the magnificent achievements of the mop haired buffoon and his bunch of nodding smilers. I'm a bit trigger happy
(06-10-2020, 11:08 AM)baggy1 Wrote: Agree on both of those posts - my gut feeling is that we are ok to start getting back to normal. One small point, we are still in the 1st wave as it hasn't gone away yet, once we have got it down to very low numbers and if we see it come back that will be the 2nd wave. The next few weeks will be very telling as, basically, lockdown is over in many peoples eyes. If we don't see a spike then we can move quicker with easing lockdown.
The focus needs to be on getting the old and vulnerable back into society safely at that point - we can't be having street parties until we are all out of this including the 12M over 65s. We're all in this together I'm told.
Absolutely spot on!
RE: UK Covid death toll - EastMidsBaggie - 06-10-2020
Still 245 deaths again today !
Far too high and the rate seems to be coming down far slower than other countries at similar stages.
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 06-10-2020
(06-10-2020, 04:10 PM)EastMidsBaggie Wrote: Still 245 deaths again today !
Far too high and the rate seems to be coming down far slower than other countries at similar stages.
Careful, you'll be accused of hysteria in a minute
RE: UK Covid death toll - EastMidsBaggie - 06-10-2020
(06-10-2020, 04:16 PM)baggy1 Wrote:(06-10-2020, 04:10 PM)EastMidsBaggie Wrote: Still 245 deaths again today !
Far too high and the rate seems to be coming down far slower than other countries at similar stages.
Careful, you'll be accused of hysteria in a minute
Amazing how people don’t like truth and facts eh!
RE: UK Covid death toll - billybassett - 06-10-2020
(06-10-2020, 04:41 PM)EastMidsBaggie Wrote:(06-10-2020, 04:16 PM)baggy1 Wrote:(06-10-2020, 04:10 PM)EastMidsBaggie Wrote: Still 245 deaths again today !
Far too high and the rate seems to be coming down far slower than other countries at similar stages.
Careful, you'll be accused of hysteria in a minute
Amazing how people don’t like truth and facts eh!
It is 245 too many. But there would have been on average 140 flu deaths anyway based on previous years figures and circa 200 poisoning deaths today as well.
It's not that the numbers are obviously bad, and many are due to the appalling handling of care homes, it's that these figures have no context so people bandy them around to create a hysteria.
I'm more worried about the 60k less cases of diagnosed cancer this year so far, the 10 million waiting list on the NHS we've supposedly protected and the deaths from an economy that will have 3m unemployed by the end of the year. That's hysteria I can hear.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Kit Kat Chunky - 06-10-2020
(06-10-2020, 09:18 PM)billybassett Wrote:(06-10-2020, 04:41 PM)EastMidsBaggie Wrote:(06-10-2020, 04:16 PM)baggy1 Wrote:(06-10-2020, 04:10 PM)EastMidsBaggie Wrote: Still 245 deaths again today !
Far too high and the rate seems to be coming down far slower than other countries at similar stages.
Careful, you'll be accused of hysteria in a minute
Amazing how people don’t like truth and facts eh!
It is 245 too many. But there would have been on average 140 flu deaths anyway based on previous years figures and circa 200 poisoning deaths today as well.
It's not that the numbers are obviously bad, and many are due to the appalling handling of care homes, it's that these figures have no context so people bandy them around to create a hysteria.
I'm more worried about the 60k less cases of diagnosed cancer this year so far, the 10 million waiting list on the NHS we've supposedly protected and the deaths from an economy that will have 3m unemployed by the end of the year. That's hysteria I can hear.
I think you are right, Billy.
If we don't see a rise in cases following this weekends events, then i think it proves there is little infection in the community.
The problem was we just weren't prepared for this, and I doubt any of our governments would have been in the last 30 years.
RE: UK Covid death toll - billybassett - 06-11-2020
(06-10-2020, 09:36 PM)Kit Kat Chunky Wrote:(06-10-2020, 09:18 PM)billybassett Wrote:(06-10-2020, 04:41 PM)EastMidsBaggie Wrote:(06-10-2020, 04:16 PM)baggy1 Wrote:(06-10-2020, 04:10 PM)EastMidsBaggie Wrote: Still 245 deaths again today !
Far too high and the rate seems to be coming down far slower than other countries at similar stages.
Careful, you'll be accused of hysteria in a minute
Amazing how people don’t like truth and facts eh!
It is 245 too many. But there would have been on average 140 flu deaths anyway based on previous years figures and circa 200 poisoning deaths today as well.
It's not that the numbers are obviously bad, and many are due to the appalling handling of care homes, it's that these figures have no context so people bandy them around to create a hysteria.
I'm more worried about the 60k less cases of diagnosed cancer this year so far, the 10 million waiting list on the NHS we've supposedly protected and the deaths from an economy that will have 3m unemployed by the end of the year. That's hysteria I can hear.
I think you are right, Billy.
If we don't see a rise in cases following this weekends events, then i think it proves there is little infection in the community.
The problem was we just weren't prepared for this, and I doubt any of our governments would have been in the last 30 years.
Agree no govt could be fully prepared. Without raking over old ground though: not taking it seriously early enough, and locking this island down, the care homes, test and trace fiasco etc.. The govt is now in a mess about what to do, the scientific advisors are gone and it's the wild west. Complete shambles.
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 06-11-2020
(06-10-2020, 09:36 PM)Kit Kat Chunky Wrote:(06-10-2020, 09:18 PM)billybassett Wrote:(06-10-2020, 04:41 PM)EastMidsBaggie Wrote:(06-10-2020, 04:16 PM)baggy1 Wrote:(06-10-2020, 04:10 PM)EastMidsBaggie Wrote: Still 245 deaths again today !
Far too high and the rate seems to be coming down far slower than other countries at similar stages.
Careful, you'll be accused of hysteria in a minute
Amazing how people don’t like truth and facts eh!
It is 245 too many. But there would have been on average 140 flu deaths anyway based on previous years figures and circa 200 poisoning deaths today as well.
It's not that the numbers are obviously bad, and many are due to the appalling handling of care homes, it's that these figures have no context so people bandy them around to create a hysteria.
I'm more worried about the 60k less cases of diagnosed cancer this year so far, the 10 million waiting list on the NHS we've supposedly protected and the deaths from an economy that will have 3m unemployed by the end of the year. That's hysteria I can hear.
I think you are right, Billy.
If we don't see a rise in cases following this weekends events, then i think it proves there is little infection in the community.
The problem was we just weren't prepared for this, and I doubt any of our governments would have been in the last 30 years.
Agree with the 1st point KKC, but the govt ran a epidemic simulation and one of the recommendations was that we would not have enough PPE available. This was ignored and led us to be even less prepared than we should have been. Agree that this really caught the world by surprise but we could have had that extra defence in place by simply following our own recommendations.
It wasn't simply the late lockdown which was being discussed but not pushed for, it was the obvious steps that people were talking about - stopping Cheltenham and other large gatherings as well as screening at airports. There was also the half hearted approach to the lockdown when it happened - closing the pubs but leaving them open for a few days so that people could get a last drink, not actually closing pubs - just telling people they couldn't go to them.
All through this there has been no forward thinking, just reaction to who is shouting loudest. And also for preparedness, there have been countries around Europe that saw this at the same time as us and have fared much better, Germany probably being the best example.
(06-10-2020, 09:18 PM)billybassett Wrote:(06-10-2020, 04:41 PM)EastMidsBaggie Wrote:(06-10-2020, 04:16 PM)baggy1 Wrote:(06-10-2020, 04:10 PM)EastMidsBaggie Wrote: Still 245 deaths again today !
Far too high and the rate seems to be coming down far slower than other countries at similar stages.
Careful, you'll be accused of hysteria in a minute
Amazing how people don’t like truth and facts eh!
It is 245 too many. But there would have been on average 140 flu deaths anyway based on previous years figures and circa 200 poisoning deaths today as well.
It's not that the numbers are obviously bad, and many are due to the appalling handling of care homes, it's that these figures have no context so people bandy them around to create a hysteria.
I'm more worried about the 60k less cases of diagnosed cancer this year so far, the 10 million waiting list on the NHS we've supposedly protected and the deaths from an economy that will have 3m unemployed by the end of the year. That's hysteria I can hear.
The 245 is on top of the normal deaths BB, the excess deaths figure for week 22 (29th May) was 1,564 and the deaths with covid on the death certificate for that week were 1,822 so without covid we would have had a net death improvement year on year of 258 which is about 3% of total deaths for that week, we're talking minimal change taking into account other deaths such as road accidents will be down.
Covid is still a problem but hopefully it is now on it's last legs - one figure that I haven't seen which would be more telling is the number of hospital admissions, which has disappeared from the govt slides for some reason. That would be the best measure of how this is going to impact going forward.
RE: UK Covid death toll - billybassett - 06-11-2020
(06-11-2020, 08:07 AM)baggy1 Wrote:(06-10-2020, 09:36 PM)Kit Kat Chunky Wrote:(06-10-2020, 09:18 PM)billybassett Wrote:(06-10-2020, 04:41 PM)EastMidsBaggie Wrote:(06-10-2020, 04:16 PM)baggy1 Wrote: Careful, you'll be accused of hysteria in a minute
Amazing how people don’t like truth and facts eh!
It is 245 too many. But there would have been on average 140 flu deaths anyway based on previous years figures and circa 200 poisoning deaths today as well.
It's not that the numbers are obviously bad, and many are due to the appalling handling of care homes, it's that these figures have no context so people bandy them around to create a hysteria.
I'm more worried about the 60k less cases of diagnosed cancer this year so far, the 10 million waiting list on the NHS we've supposedly protected and the deaths from an economy that will have 3m unemployed by the end of the year. That's hysteria I can hear.
I think you are right, Billy.
If we don't see a rise in cases following this weekends events, then i think it proves there is little infection in the community.
The problem was we just weren't prepared for this, and I doubt any of our governments would have been in the last 30 years.
Agree with the 1st point KKC, but the govt ran a epidemic simulation and one of the recommendations was that we would not have enough PPE available. This was ignored and led us to be even less prepared than we should have been. Agree that this really caught the world by surprise but we could have had that extra defence in place by simply following our own recommendations.
It wasn't simply the late lockdown which was being discussed but not pushed for, it was the obvious steps that people were talking about - stopping Cheltenham and other large gatherings as well as screening at airports. There was also the half hearted approach to the lockdown when it happened - closing the pubs but leaving them open for a few days so that people could get a last drink, not actually closing pubs - just telling people they couldn't go to them.
All through this there has been no forward thinking, just reaction to who is shouting loudest. And also for preparedness, there have been countries around Europe that saw this at the same time as us and have fared much better, Germany probably being the best example.
(06-10-2020, 09:18 PM)billybassett Wrote:(06-10-2020, 04:41 PM)EastMidsBaggie Wrote:(06-10-2020, 04:16 PM)baggy1 Wrote:(06-10-2020, 04:10 PM)EastMidsBaggie Wrote: Still 245 deaths again today !
Far too high and the rate seems to be coming down far slower than other countries at similar stages.
Careful, you'll be accused of hysteria in a minute
Amazing how people don’t like truth and facts eh!
It is 245 too many. But there would have been on average 140 flu deaths anyway based on previous years figures and circa 200 poisoning deaths today as well.
It's not that the numbers are obviously bad, and many are due to the appalling handling of care homes, it's that these figures have no context so people bandy them around to create a hysteria.
I'm more worried about the 60k less cases of diagnosed cancer this year so far, the 10 million waiting list on the NHS we've supposedly protected and the deaths from an economy that will have 3m unemployed by the end of the year. That's hysteria I can hear.
The 245 is on top of the normal deaths BB, the excess deaths figure for week 22 (29th May) was 1,564 and the deaths with covid on the death certificate for that week were 1,822 so without covid we would have had a net death improvement year on year of 258 which is about 3% of total deaths for that week, we're talking minimal change taking into account other deaths such as road accidents will be down.
Covid is still a problem but hopefully it is now on it's last legs - one figure that I haven't seen which would be more telling is the number of hospital admissions, which has disappeared from the govt slides for some reason. That would be the best measure of how this is going to impact going forward.
Good pt re excess deaths. Still no doubt for u45s it will be pre-existing conditions that cause the vulnerability as opposed to the virus itself.
Yes the govt keeps moving its comparison goal posts. This week it was a comparison to 2 weeks ago or the peak because that looked better because admissions this week were 443 and last Wed they were 431 but 2 Wednesdays before they were 600 odd. The stopped using international comparators when they started killing too many people - we now have 7000 more deaths than Italy.
On March 11th the govt issued the 2 weeks behind Italy message showing a graph that we were on the same curve. If they had locked down then like they should have people are estimating that the deaths would have been halved. Those 2 weeks the infections sky rocketed..