WBAUnofficial
UK Covid death toll - Printable Version

+- WBAUnofficial (https://wbaunofficial.org.uk)
+-- Forum: WBAUnofficial (https://wbaunofficial.org.uk/forumdisplay.php?fid=3)
+--- Forum: Politics (https://wbaunofficial.org.uk/forumdisplay.php?fid=5)
+--- Thread: UK Covid death toll (/showthread.php?tid=10162)



RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 11-12-2020

(11-05-2020, 06:33 PM)baggy1 Wrote: Taking the figures and updating them with this weeks figures from the govt slides today

16th Sept - 894
23rd Sept - 1,381 (1.54 x previous week)
30th Sept - 1,995 (1.44 x pw)
7th Oct - 2,944 (1.47 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,156 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,018 (1.44 x pw)
28th Oct - 8,535 (1.42 x pw)
4th Oct - 10,344 (1.21 x pw)

Positive news in that the growth rate has reduced to 1.2 when it has been running at 1.4 for so long which if extrapolated would be

11th November - 12,412
18th November - 14,895
25th November - 17,874 (this will be three weeks after lockdown and the peak in April was 17,172 on the 12th April which was 3 weeks after lockdown)
2nd December  - declining figures after lockdown follow a slower rate than the increase before the peak.

Effectively putting the lockdown in place this week means that, if we follow the same pattern as the 1st wave, then we will have hospitalisations peak at about the same as April, but there does appear to be a better survival rate this time.

All of this relates just to England - Further good news on the hospitalisation front, the rate of of increase has dropped the 4th October. The number in hospital is now 11,990 which gives an increase on last week of 1.15. If the rate continues to reduce like this we will start seeing a drop in those in hospital in the next couple of weeks. 

There reasons for this reduction could be due to the tier 3 lockdowns in the NorthWest feeding through which would indicate that the Prime Minister could have followed his 1st policy of not locking down the country and been justified, or it could just be the natural progression now as we see more people being infected building up more immunity which therefore leaves less people to get hospitalised eventually. Again it's difficult to say definitively however I'm certain that there will be many interpretations of the data.

Continuing at the reduced rate would have us move 13,189 next week and 14,508 the week after and then on potentially a reduction in those in hospital. The current lockdown should ensure that it doesn't take hold in that period (although I'm not seeing this as much of a lockdown apart from I can't go to the pub and the missus can't go to zara). 

There appears to be a constant figures of about 10% of those in hospital on ventilators and IIRC that figure was about 15% in the 1st wave so good news also there. Those on ventilators are 1,081


RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 11-12-2020

(11-12-2020, 05:14 PM)billybassett Wrote: No one ever comes back to me on this so for a final time:

Are the health benefits of the current testing programmes, tracing work, lockdowns, masks, vaccination programmes greater than the overall costs to wider health, education, business, economy etc?

Nobody knows, and that is the point - you, me, Dekka, Johnson, SAGE and Joe Biden are all dealing with this for the 1st time and have to make calls based on risk of death and the impact of this running riot (we can't say for definite that won't) against the more obvious costs to the economy. 

You can ask the question as much as you like but you don't know and neither do I. My thoughts are simple, if we just carry on and this takes off again people will simply stay in anyway and therefore cause the damage to those businesses so trying to tackle it as best we can is all we can try.

What I do know is this - we have had over 60,000 more deaths than normal this year. The worst flu season in memory caused about 20,000 excess deaths and we haven't even got to flu season yet. This is more dangerous than you give it credit for.


RE: UK Covid death toll - baggiebuckster - 11-12-2020

What are you classing as flu season?


RE: UK Covid death toll - Tom Joad - 11-12-2020

There are undeniably, big differences this time around. Last lockdown I heard of people I really wouldn't have expected, being rushed into hospital. ICU actually. I heard of a fair number of people locally being taken to hospital. I also heard of deaths, (relations of friends). They were both elderly but taken by Covid, nonetheless.
This 2nd wave, I actually haven't heard of anyone being hospitalised. I know of many that have been tested as positive for Covid, some were very poorly, some a bit poorly, and some who felt nothing at all.
Without underestimating the devastating losses many have suffered, it does seem that precautions are working, treatments are better and testing is paying off.
No agenda here, just putting up my experiences.


RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 11-12-2020

(11-12-2020, 06:00 PM)baggiebuckster Wrote: What are you classing as flu season?

https://www.bupa.co.uk/health-information/childrens-health/flu

If you can identify a flu period that people say is worse than we are going through with covid I'll dig out the figures. Billy quoted 49k for 17/18, it turned out to be 17k.


RE: UK Covid death toll - Baggie_Nick - 11-12-2020

33k infections today!


RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 11-12-2020

I heard this but i've said all along it's difficult to compare as the testing regime is haphazard and you can't say for definite that isn't a standard number. The key measurable fact is that hospitalisation growth has slowed which indicates moving in the right direction. And that is pretty much up to date as the figures I've got are from yesterday.


RE: UK Covid death toll - The liquidator - 11-13-2020

94% capacity in isu in West Midlands its getting full lads.


RE: UK Covid death toll - richbaggie - 11-13-2020

(11-13-2020, 01:47 PM)The liquidator Wrote: 94% capacity in isu in West Midlands its getting full lads.

The quote below was from a report in 2017 about ITU capacity. Whilst 95% is not good, it's far from abnormal in normal circumstances. It tells you more about the state of the funding for NHS than anything else. Capacity is always running pretty high numbers and even more so during respiratory season.

"For England, where the information is collected and presented nationally through NHS England, we asked them whether they felt the reported percentage fill rate for beds at their site was a true reflection of their current bed capacity. The NHSE SitRep data was estimating the average fill rate for England was just below 87% for January, which includes a number of units at or near 100%. The highest level recommended for safe and efficient patient care is 85%."


RE: UK Covid death toll - HawkingsHalfpint - 11-14-2020

Sorry. Can’t resist. 



(11-12-2020, 05:28 PM)baggy1 Wrote:
(11-05-2020, 06:33 PM)baggy1 Wrote: Taking the figures and updating them with this weeks figures from the govt slides today

16th Sept - 894
23rd Sept - 1,381 (1.54 x previous week)
30th Sept - 1,995 (1.44 x pw)
7th Oct - 2,944 (1.47 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,156 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,018 (1.44 x pw)
28th Oct - 8,535 (1.42 x pw)
4th Oct - 10,344 (1.21 x pw)

Positive news in that the growth rate has reduced to 1.2 when it has been running at 1.4 for so long which if extrapolated would be

11th November - 12,412
18th November - 14,895
25th November - 17,874 (this will be three weeks after lockdown and the peak in April was 17,172 on the 12th April which was 3 weeks after lockdown)
2nd December  - declining figures after lockdown follow a slower rate than the increase before the peak.

Effectively putting the lockdown in place this week means that, if we follow the same pattern as the 1st wave, then we will have hospitalisations peak at about the same as April, but there does appear to be a better survival rate this time.

Those on ventilators are 1,081

Fucking hell, it’s hard enough to breathe in those things anyway, let alone with some cunt standing on it at the time. I bet it’s those ruddy students.