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+--- Thread: UK Covid death toll (/showthread.php?tid=10162)
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RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 10-23-2020
(10-23-2020, 12:16 PM)baggiebuckster Wrote: Not sure how much can be read into the ventilator numbers. Don't know if the treatment policies have changed but there have been suggestions that ventilation is not the best approach to take in some cases.
Agreed - I did think that
RE: UK Covid death toll - Brentbaggie - 10-23-2020
Just when I was trying to cheer myself up.
RE: UK Covid death toll - billybassett - 10-23-2020
Thanks baggy1 good stats.
I see Welsh supermarkets covering up non essential items.
My MP told me that 1.46 people in every 1000 in my constituency have tested positive for covid and we could be moving to a tier 2. With a false positive rate of 50% (as per Addenbrooks minimum) we could be moved to tier 2 because (doing the maths) we will have 660 people of 93000 who may have covid. Of those, 99.8% (as per WHO) likely to be fine which leaves us with 1.35 people likely to be very ill in our area and maybe likely to die.
This by all accounts this is an escalation and things have to be slowed down. I mean the world has gone Tom wobble wobble
RE: UK Covid death toll - billybassett - 10-25-2020
Finally some national media coming out of their Ofcom handcuffed coma
A Sunday Times Insight investigation can today reveal that thousands of elderly people were denied potentially life-saving treatment to stop the health service being overrun - contrary to the claims of ministers and NHS executives
https://t.co/2UQtPYC6qL
Gisrs shows we've eradicated flu as well. Good to know.
Hopefully the snowball has started rolling and we can get on with normality
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 10-27-2020
Week 42 (w/e 16th Oct) figures are now out and again some mixed messages. The total number of deaths in E&W for the week compared with the 5YA is up by about 650 and against 2020 is up about 400, so neither of those are significant but both higher than normal.
However based on the number of hospitalisations in England as at the 16th (4,647) and the equivalent time in the 1st wave (26th March had 5,045) the number of excess deaths vs the 5YA are slightly down (1,011 in Wk 13 vs 669 in Wk 42) but following a pattern - there is a slower rate of growth in hospitalisations this time and a lessor excess death rate but both are rising.
Next weeks figures will be a huge comparison because wk 14 in the 1st wave is where it really started to take off (6k excess deaths in wk 14 compared with 1k in wk 13).
Hospitalisations also continue to rise with 7.5k in England with slightly less than 10% of those on ventilators (both as of yesterday). The rates of growth are still at around 1.5 and if we get to the end of the week with around 10k in hospital that will show continued growth at those rates.
Some big weeks worth of data coming up. Buckle in and keep safe folks.
RE: UK Covid death toll - billybassett - 10-27-2020
(10-27-2020, 10:12 AM)baggy1 Wrote: Week 42 (w/e 16th Oct) figures are now out and again some mixed messages. The total number of deaths in E&W for the week compared with the 5YA is up by about 650 and against 2020 is up about 400, so neither of those are significant but both higher than normal.
However based on the number of hospitalisations in England as at the 16th (4,647) and the equivalent time in the 1st wave (26th March had 5,045) the number of excess deaths vs the 5YA are slightly down (1,011 in Wk 13 vs 669 in Wk 42) but following a pattern - there is a slower rate of growth in hospitalisations this time and a lessor excess death rate but both are rising.
Next weeks figures will be a huge comparison because wk 14 in the 1st wave is where it really started to take off (6k excess deaths in wk 14 compared with 1k in wk 13).
Hospitalisations also continue to rise with 7.5k in England with slightly less than 10% of those on ventilators (both as of yesterday). The rates of growth are still at around 1.5 and if we get to the end of the week with around 10k in hospital that will show continued growth at those rates.
Some big weeks worth of data coming up. Buckle in and keep safe folks.
Thanks baggy1
No waves in respiratory viruses. Hospital admissions for influenza and other respiratory illnesses cured.
Covid over.
Stop testing well people for the love of christ using a dodgy PCR test. I've requested from my MP 3 times through Hancock the false positive rate for the test. They refuse to provide it even though for any other testing process the FPR is a key metric.
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 10-27-2020
Not strictly true billy, the figures that are showing is for all deaths including influenza and other respiratory illnesses and is still higher this year. You get into problems when you start trying to compare what has been written on a death cert. I'm trying to keep this simple with the 'there are more / less people dying this year' approach - that way we can see the impact of anything different this year (clearly covid).
Like I say next week will be a really big indicator of a second wave or more a second ripple, let's not make any bones about it, there are more deaths this year than ever and by a considerable enough amount to take out population growth. We stand at 55k more deaths in E&W than the 5YA and nearly 62k against 2019. For balance, since the end of May that figure has been lower (only 2k excess deaths in 20 weeks) but it is rising again.
RE: UK Covid death toll - Brentbaggie - 10-27-2020
(10-27-2020, 10:41 AM)baggy1 Wrote: Not strictly true billy, the figures that are showing is for all deaths including influenza and other respiratory illnesses and is still higher this year. You get into problems when you start trying to compare what has been written on a death cert. I'm trying to keep this simple with the 'there are more / less people dying this year' approach - that way we can see the impact of anything different this year (clearly covid).
Like I say next week will be a really big indicator of a second wave or more a second ripple, let's not make any bones about it, there are more deaths this year than ever and by a considerable enough amount to take out population growth. We stand at 55k more deaths in E&W than the 5YA and nearly 62k against 2019. For balance, since the end of May that figure has been lower (only 2k excess deaths in 20 weeks) but it is rising again.
It's probably the same people dying again and again.
RE: UK Covid death toll - baggy1 - 10-27-2020
(10-27-2020, 10:53 AM)Brentbaggie Wrote:(10-27-2020, 10:41 AM)baggy1 Wrote: Not strictly true billy, the figures that are showing is for all deaths including influenza and other respiratory illnesses and is still higher this year. You get into problems when you start trying to compare what has been written on a death cert. I'm trying to keep this simple with the 'there are more / less people dying this year' approach - that way we can see the impact of anything different this year (clearly covid).
Like I say next week will be a really big indicator of a second wave or more a second ripple, let's not make any bones about it, there are more deaths this year than ever and by a considerable enough amount to take out population growth. We stand at 55k more deaths in E&W than the 5YA and nearly 62k against 2019. For balance, since the end of May that figure has been lower (only 2k excess deaths in 20 weeks) but it is rising again.
It's probably the same people dying again and again.
Messing up my figures those bastard living dead
RE: UK Covid death toll - billybassett - 10-27-2020
(10-27-2020, 10:41 AM)baggy1 Wrote: Not strictly true billy, the figures that are showing is for all deaths including influenza and other respiratory illnesses and is still higher this year. You get into problems when you start trying to compare what has been written on a death cert. I'm trying to keep this simple with the 'there are more / less people dying this year' approach - that way we can see the impact of anything different this year (clearly covid).
Like I say next week will be a really big indicator of a second wave or more a second ripple, let's not make any bones about it, there are more deaths this year than ever and by a considerable enough amount to take out population growth. We stand at 55k more deaths in E&W than the 5YA and nearly 62k against 2019. For balance, since the end of May that figure has been lower (only 2k excess deaths in 20 weeks) but it is rising again.
Well you're assuming that covid cases and admissions are being logged appropriately.
2 examples from me just this week. Footballing friend went in with an ankle issue - turns out it was fractured. After a scan he was asked to have a test (please say no) he tested positive. One more case for you.
Old lady we know goes in for a routine check up, has to stay a bit longer as thought she had heart murmur. Was tested. Positive. No symptoms. Another case for you.
I mean come on. Stop fucking testing healthy people with no symptoms for a flu. If people can't see that's madness and something we've never done for flu then I'm afraid humanity is going to hit rock bottom very soon.
And before anyone says it, it is tragic 45K have died though we already know from the Sunday Times reporting this week many of those won't be covid (because of the reporting) and many never went to hospital because they were scared by the govt into not going and thus died when they could have been saved.
I mean have you heard that New Zealand are likely to set up quarantine camps for people. People can be forcibly removed to camps if there is a risk they may infect others in their households. They will be detained without charge, or conviction of any crime, until they agree to a test & it’s negative. Jesus christ it's downright scary and fascist.